CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Except that before he got hit in the face he was a great hitter.
Playoffs Thread
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Except that before he got hit in the face he was a great hitter.
msstate7
Well-known member
‘10 = Jhey ops’d at .849 his rookie year aided by an anomaly bb rate, 14.6% (hasn’t broke 11.2 since)
‘11 = .708
‘12 = .814
‘13 = .776 (hit in face)
‘14 = .735
‘15 = .797
‘16 = .631
‘17 = .715
So, 2 years after getting hit in the face, he had his 3rd best offensive season. Hit in the face is just an excuse imo.
‘11 = .708
‘12 = .814
‘13 = .776 (hit in face)
‘14 = .735
‘15 = .797
‘16 = .631
‘17 = .715
So, 2 years after getting hit in the face, he had his 3rd best offensive season. Hit in the face is just an excuse imo.
The league figured him out IMO.
Was exciting to watch him those first two years but he never adjusted.
Not sure if people remember but when Fredi moved J-Hey to the leadoff spot in 2013 that’s when he went on fire. He would have gotten a +.800 OPS that year if not for the broken face.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
See, this is bull****. I'm not sure how much correlation him getting hit in the face actually had, but the fact is he would've OPS'd north of .800 3 of his first 4 years and showed good power before the incident. It may not be due to the injury, but let's not pretend that Heyward wasn't a good hitter before that. Something screwed up his swing.
"Would have" 3 of 4 years? So we're just saying it's a lock he would've done it in 13 and 14? that's quite the conclusion to reach. much more likely the league adjusted to him and he didn't adjust back.
Dude went from hitting legendary lightning bolts in ST that required construction of new parking covers to hitting more weak grounders to the right side than any hitter I've ever seen.
He comes out around the ball way too much now. Some people call it "casting". You can see him exaggerate keeping his hands inside the ball on his warm up swings (or at least he did it constantly last year), so he knows what the issue is. It's also why he stands so far off the plate.
I saw video of Inciarte working on a drill created by Seitzer where there was a rope vertically connected to the back tip of home plate. Inciarte was taking cuts at a ball on a tee out in front of the plate. The purpose of the rope was to force Inciarte to keep his hands inside so much that the bat missed the rope, but then his extension allowed him to barrel up the ball in front of the plate.
That is the kind of fix Heyward needs to make to his swing. It is also called "barrel delay", or "throwing the knob of the bat at the pitcher". There were really good shots of it taken from above during the HR derby Frazier won. He does it very well.
Here is a decent video:
http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/grip.html
At the beginning of the clip his hands are way out front, but the bat is still close to his body. Then the bat starts to rotate to hit the ball. He hit this ball for a HR despite not even maintaining hold of the bat.
He comes out around the ball way too much now. Some people call it "casting". You can see him exaggerate keeping his hands inside the ball on his warm up swings (or at least he did it constantly last year), so he knows what the issue is. It's also why he stands so far off the plate.
I saw video of Inciarte working on a drill created by Seitzer where there was a rope vertically connected to the back tip of home plate. Inciarte was taking cuts at a ball on a tee out in front of the plate. The purpose of the rope was to force Inciarte to keep his hands inside so much that the bat missed the rope, but then his extension allowed him to barrel up the ball in front of the plate.
That is the kind of fix Heyward needs to make to his swing. It is also called "barrel delay", or "throwing the knob of the bat at the pitcher". There were really good shots of it taken from above during the HR derby Frazier won. He does it very well.
Here is a decent video:
http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/grip.html
At the beginning of the clip his hands are way out front, but the bat is still close to his body. Then the bat starts to rotate to hit the ball. He hit this ball for a HR despite not even maintaining hold of the bat.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I don't have that much of a problem with him not using Davis and the logic behind it. I just think Maddon painted himself into a corner and was somewhat forced to go with Lackey. Rondon didn't pitch well in the opening game, but if you know Davis is going to be limited to a specific situation, Maddon should have saved his higher leverage reliever who remained--Strop in this instance because his use of Edwards was clearly the right move--for a higher leverage situation than what he was placed in. This use of starting pitchers in high leverage situations is something that seems to be picking up steam, but I really question bringing someone who has primarily been a starter into a situation where he is going to have to pitch out of the stretch immediately. Have Lackey start the 7th with the bases empty instead of Strop.
It should also be pointed out that Duensing had reverse splits (not by much) this season.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Umm...no. What do you not understand about "before the injury". He was on pace to do it in 13 before he got hurt. That means he would've done it in 10, 12, and 13.
And it normally doesn't take 5 years for MLB pitchers to adjust.
I missed the '10 season above the '11.
He was not on pace to do it in '13 tho. He was at .776, so he was "on pace" for that. He posted a .708 the year before, so I'm not going to assume he would reach and stay at 8. So, 2 of 4 years with one being .708.
I'd say pitchers are constantly making adjustments to young hitters.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
You must have missed the 13 season, because Heyward was on fire before the setback.
There's no doubt in my mind that he would have eclipsed it again, considering he'd already done it twice, including the previous year. That entire year was a trainwreck for him as far as freak injuries.
Well if you believe it then we may as well carve it in stone as something that would have happened haha. Someone go update his player page!
The facts are he had a .771 OPS over 400 PAs at the time of the injury on August 21. To top .800 in the remaining ~150 PAs he had remaining that season, he would have needed to post an OPS of ~.875.
In the 23 months he had played to that point, he hit that mark in 7 of them. So I'd say he had a 30% chance of topping an .800 OPS in 2013.
When you look beyond the total numbers you will find the answer. Heyward as a hitter changed after he got hit.
ISO
10: 179
11: 162
12: 210
13: 173 (year he got hit)
14: 113
15: 146
16: 094
17: 130
His good year with the Cards is propped up by having a higher BABIP than expected on ground balls which is all that he does now.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Yeah, his emergency appendectomy played no part in his OPS up to that point.
Fact is, he was a different player after he got hit in the face. I'm amazed anyone can argue otherwise.
msstate7
Well-known member
Maybe so. If you look at his foWAR though, he’s broke 20 3 times (‘10, ‘12, and ‘15). In ‘13, he had 9.3 foWAR with 440 PA; if you avg that out over 640 PA, that’s 13.5.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
One of Morton's problems when he was with the Braves is that he had too many pitches and rather than have Morton narrow his repertoire and refine those pitches. Braves had this habit of drafting guys (Jamie Arnold and Jo Jo Reyes also come to mind) who threw four or five different pitches and couldn't get any of the pitches to the plus level. I always liked Morton. Glad to see him doing well.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think the other thing is that Heyward's performance against LHP has fallen off pretty markedy since he got hit. He was sporting an .801 OPS against LHP in 2013 (the year was hit). Only time it has been greater than .700 (.709) since was his year with the Cardinals.