Playoffs Thread

msstate7 said:
For all the praise the astros get for their advanced stats scouting/managing, they have SS/3b messed up. Bregman is a better ss than Correa
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The numbers they are looking at say otherwise. He is a little below average at 3b, and very below average at SS. Correa is slightly below average at SS.

They are an excellent team with very intelligent management. I think they know what they're doing on their infield.

In fact, the 4 remaining playoff teams are probably among the 6 or so most intelligent teams in the modern game.
 
Enscheff said:
The numbers they are looking at say otherwise.

They are an excellent team with very intelligent management.

I think they know what they're doing on their infield.
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Correa’s fdWAR for his career (3 years) is 6.2. Swanson, while committing 20 errors and not playing a complete year, put up 6.0 fdWAR this season. I’ve watched the astros enough to know Correa isn’t good there... bregman was a better ss at LSU than Correa is in mlb

Personally, I think they’re catering to their stud hitter
 
msstate7 said:
Correa’s fdWAR for his career (3 years) is 6.2. Swanson, while committing 20 errors and not playing a complete year, put up 6.0 fdWAR this season. I’ve watched the astros enough to know Correa isn’t good there... bregman was a better ss at LSU than Correa is in mlb

Personally, I think they’re catering to their stud hitter
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Well there's certainly no doubting your eye test. Definitely more reliable than defensive metrics and the opinion of one of the best ran teams in the game.
 
Enscheff said:
Well if you believe it then we may as well carve it in stone as something that would have happened haha. Someone go update his player page!

The facts are he had a .771 OPS over 400 PAs at the time of the injury on August 21. To top .800 in the remaining ~150 PAs he had remaining that season, he would have needed to post an OPS of ~.875.

In the 23 months he had played to that point, he hit that mark in 7 of them. So I'd say he had a 30% chance of topping an .800 OPS in 2013.
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Should be noted that Heyward still had a 120 WRC+ in 2013 compared to 121 in 2012. OPS as a raw stat would like you to believe those two seasons didn't compare but in reality they did. OPS is flawed.
 
thewupk said:
Should be noted that Heyward still had a 120 WRC+ in 2013 compared to 121 in 2012. OPS as a raw stat would like you to believe those two seasons didn't compare but in reality they did. OPS is flawed.
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I consider wRC+ flawed as well because it doesn't account for luck. I think xwOBA is the best measure of true talent, but it doesn't cover how speed impacts offensive performance.
 
msstate7 said:
Maybe so. If you look at his foWAR though, he’s broke 20 3 times (‘10, ‘12, and ‘15). In ‘13, he had 9.3 foWAR with 440 PA; if you avg that out over 640 PA, that’s 13.5.
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And the reason it was so low in 2013 even if you prorate it was due to him being a negative baserunner that year for whatever reason. Had nothing to do with his hitting.
 
Enscheff said:
I consider wRC+ flawed as well because it doesn't account for luck. I think xwOBA is the best measure of true talent, but it doesn't cover how speed impacts offensive performance.
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I would agree with that. As far what actually happened on the field wOBA laps the field with OPS imo. But yes even that can have the luck element buried in there. xwOBA is a strong stat for sure.
 
thewupk said:
I would agree with that. As far what actually happened on the field wOBA laps the field with OPS imo. But yes even that can have the luck element buried in there. xwOBA is a strong stat for sure.
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I think xwOBA is almost perfect for pitchers because they face so many types of hitters (speedy, slow, power, slap) that everything averages out.

For hitters it seems like the delta for fly balls is due to luck and the ball parks they play in.

However, if a hitter shows consistent delta on grounders AND liners, I am inclined to chalk some of that up to a skill (or lack of skill) not captured by xwOBA. For example, slow hitters always underperform their xwOBA (mostly on grounders and liners), while guys like Inciarte (not necessarily fast) seem to regularly outperform it. I haven't found anything that correlates strongly to guys who outperform it...it's not just fast guys. I suspect it's a mixture of speed and hitting the balls to all fields.
 
CyYoung31 said:
You must have missed the 13 season, because Heyward was on fire before the setback.

There's no doubt in my mind that he would have eclipsed it again, considering he'd already done it twice, including the previous year. That entire year was a trainwreck for him as far as freak injuries.
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doesn't mean you can assume it. lots of guys are "on fire" and then cool off. he was at .776 thru 104 games. what would he have to do to reach .800 in ~58 more? either way, he wasn't "on pace" for .800. OPS isn't a counting stat..
 
Super said:
doesn't mean you can assume it. lots of guys are "on fire" and then cool off. he was at .776 thru 104 games. what would he have to do to reach .800 in ~58 more? either way, he wasn't "on pace" for .800. OPS isn't a counting stat..
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Okay. If he hadn't suffered two devastating, freak injuries, he totally wouldn't have reached an .800 OPS despite hovering around that mark that season and having done it 2 of the 3 years prior. That's a way better assumption than the one I made.

You happy?
 
And I assumed Heyward was OPSing .800 at the time of his injury without looking it up. And I wasn't far off. That hardly affects my overall point either way.
 
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