Possible Pitcher vs Hitter Matchups (first round)

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Medlen has held the hitters on the Dodgers to an overall OPS of .589. The Dodgers who hit him well are Ethier, Ramirez and Schumaker. He's held the Reds hitters to an overall OPS of .790. Votto, Choo, Frazier and Mesoraco have hit him well. He's held the Pirates hitters to an OPS of .731. Barmes, McCutchen, Alvarez and Walker have hit him well.

Minor has held the Dodgers to a .684 OPS. Gonzalez, Ramirez, AJ Ellis, Crawford and Schumaker have hit him well. He's held the Reds to a .608 OPS. Cozart and Heisey have hit him well. He's held the Pirates to a .748 OPS. Sanchez, Tabata and Alvarez have hit him well.

Teheran didn't have a start against the Dodgers this year. He had a poor start against the Reds, giving up home runs to Choo and Bruce. He had two starts against the Pirates, include the one where he gave up one hit in eight innings. He did give up home runs to Alvarez and Martin.

Garcia has held the Dodgers hitters to a .583 OPS. Ramirez, Crawford and Gonzalez have hit him well. His OPS against the Reds hitters is .880. Choo, Phillips and Bruce have hit him well. Against the Pirates hitters he has given up a .968 OPS. Most of them have hit him very well.

Conclusions: I'd be pretty uncomfortable starting both Teheran and Garcia in Cincinnati. The Reds are the team I fear the most of the three and the matchups increase my concerns. Garcia against the Pirates also looks like a bad matchup. But Maholm also has a terrible track record against the current group of Pirates hitters.

If we face the Reds, I would try to go with Minor and Teheran against them at home, and Medlen, who is more of a groundball pitcher, in their ballpark.
 
Freddy in Cincy would be a nightmare. He gets away with a lot of slow pitches and is suspetible to leaving a pitch up. You leave a high change or slurve in Cincy and you're asking for trouble. Just hope he keeps his pitches down.

nsacpi said:
Medlen has held the hitters on the Dodgers to an overall OPS of .589. The Dodgers who hit him well are Ethier, Ramirez and Schumaker. He's held the Reds hitters to an overall OPS of .790. Votto, Choo, Frazier and Mesoraco have hit him well. He's held the Pirates hitters to an OPS of .731. Barmes, McCutchen, Alvarez and Walker have hit him well.

Minor has held the Dodgers to a .684 OPS. Gonzalez, Ramirez, AJ Ellis, Crawford and Schumaker have hit him well. He's held the Reds to a .608 OPS. Cozart and Heisey have hit him well. He's held the Pirates to a .748 OPS. Sanchez, Tabata and Alvarez have hit him well.

Teheran didn't have a start against the Dodgers this year. He had a poor start against the Reds, giving up home runs to Choo and Bruce. He had two starts against the Pirates, include the one where he gave up one hit in eight innings. He did give up home runs to Alvarez and Martin.

Garcia has held the Dodgers hitters to a .583 OPS. Ramirez, Crawford and Gonzalez have hit him well. His OPS against the Reds hitters is .880. Choo, Phillips and Bruce have hit him well. Against the Pirates hitters he has given up a .968 OPS. Most of them have hit him very well.

Conclusions: I'd be pretty uncomfortable starting both Teheran and Garcia in Cincinnati. The Reds are the team I fear the most of the three and the matchups increase my concerns. Garcia against the Pirates also looks like a bad matchup. But Maholm also has a terrible track record against the current group of Pirates hitters.

If we face the Reds, I would try to go with Minor and Teheran against them at home, and Medlen, who is more of a groundball pitcher, in their ballpark.
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Much appreciated post nsacpi! How about the other way around? How do our hitters fare against their pitching? Would you have the stats on this too? Thanks!
 
Looking at the Dodgers pitchers, Kershaw has been very tough on us with our hitters having an OPS of .408 against him. Only Freeman has hit him well. We've done much better against Greinke, with our hitters having a collective OPS of .771 against him. McCann, Elliot Johnson, Uggla, Justin Upton and Schafer have all hit Greinke well. We've done even better against Nolasco, with an .866 OPS against him. Schafer, Uggla, Heyward and McCann (8 home runs!) have hit him well. Ryu held us to a .574 OPS in two games this year. Only Freeman hit him well.

I'll take a look at Pittsburgh and Cincy later. Or someone else can if they want. The numbers are available at baseball-reference.com.

In a Dodgers-Braves series, my guess is the matchups would be Kershaw-Medlen, Greinke-Minor, Nolasco-Teheran, and Ryu-Garcia.

Based on track record (which I want to emphasize is not a perfect predictor and often based on small samples), the Dodgers would be favored in game 1 even on the road, the Braves in games 2 and 3. Game 4 is very interesting. Garcia has a good record against their hitters and the stadium should help him. Still the Dodgers would have to be favored in that matchup at home. We really need to win this series in 4 because I would not like our chances in a game 5 with Kershaw going.

I know Fredi and the Braves would never consider this, but a case can be made for "sacrificing" our weakest starter against Kershaw in game 1. It would help us have favorable matchups in the next three games. In this scenario, if there were a fifth game our game 2 starter can go in game 5 on normal rest.
 
It looks like we're setting it up this way, but I'm not sure why we're going with Minor in game 2 (should be a home start). He's much better on the road.
 
Tapate50 said:
Where is this idea that Fred Garcia is starting playoff games for us come from? Thats asanine.
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He's pitched decently in three starts. Wood has been inconsistent of late as a starter and may be running out of gas. Avilan and Downs look like they might need some help from another lefty. I don't think it is a bad idea in the right ballpark. I would avoid pitching him against the Reds in Great American Ball Park.
 
Now official it will be the Dodgers, so I'll add a couple thoughts.

With regards to our lefty relievers versus their lefty hitters, there is one matchup Fredi should avoid. Downs versus Crawford--.933 OPS in 22 PA.

The second thought is that Schafer has hit well against Greinke (1.273 OPS in 11 PA) and Nolasco (.946 OPS in 8 PA). It would not surprise me to see him make a start or two against those guys.
 
So would you put Constanza on the playoff roster nsacpi? I would but I expect Fredi to go with Schafer and BJ Upton.
 
Braves1976 said:
So would you put Constanza on the playoff roster nsacpi? I would but I expect Fredi to go with Schafer and BJ Upton.
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The relievers who pitch the high-leverage innings for the Dodgers are right-handed--Jansen, Wilson, Belisario. I think there is a good case for having a second left-handed bat on our bench. I would go with both Schafer and Constanza over BJ. But I agree that Fredi will probably go with Schafer and BJ.
 
nsacpi said:
The relievers who pitch the high-leverage innings for the Dodgers are right-handed--Jansen, Wilson, Belisario. I think there is a good case for having a second left-handed bat on our bench. I would go with both Schafer and Constanza over BJ. But I agree that Fredi will probably go with Schafer and BJ.
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You can't be serious. As bad as BJ has been, Constanza and Schafer have been worse.
 
Constanza is tempting, but he was pretty average in the minors this year, and only 8-31 with the Braves this year, 0 steals and 3 Caught stealing. You gotta go with the guys who got you here, so of course it's going to be BJ and Schafer.
 
NYCBrave said:
Constanza is tempting, but he was pretty average in the minors this year, and only 8-31 with the Braves this year, 0 steals and 3 Caught stealing. You gotta go with the guys who got you here, so of course it's going to be BJ and Schafer.
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BJ didn't get us here at all. I don't see the Braves being any worse over the course of the season with Constanza getting all of his at bats. The only thing BJ brings to the table is good defense and that is a big advantage in the playoffs. Now in order of which guy I prefer getting an at bat in a playoff game. Jordan, Jose, and BJ.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
BJ didn't get us here at all. I don't see the Braves being any worse over the course of the season with Constanza getting all of his at bats. The only thing BJ brings to the table is good defense and that is a big advantage in the playoffs. Now in order of which guy I prefer getting an at bat in a playoff game. Jordan, Jose, and BJ.
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I understand that, but what I meant was it would be extremely disloyal of the organization to just leave BJ off. Is it the right move? No. But we're talking about the last spot on the bench. I can't see any way they don't make that spot BJ's. It's not like Constanza has been so much better.
 
I have to say...While it seemed like the obvious moves you have to give Freddi credit for going with Gattis/Johnson moving forward.
 
thethe said:
I have to say...While it seemed like the obvious moves you have to give Freddi credit for going with Gattis/Johnson moving forward.
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I can only imagine how hard it must be to handle the egos of two veteran players who basically lost their starting role after previously having all-star careers. Yet nobody thinks about these things or gives the manager credit. From all indications, BJ and Uggla haven't been pouting about it too much and have remained good teammates.
 
Bj1133 said:
Kemp is out for the playoffs - so there's one less bat to worry about
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There offense is not looking good lately. Just need one or two of our guys to step up. Would be huge if Gattis could stay hot for this upcoming series.
 
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