Potential 2016 Offseason Targets

Horsehide Harry said:
I agree. Everyone understands the need for a rebuild at the beginning but get a year or two of terrible baseball and everyone starts looking for ways to cut corners.

No one likes to watch crap baseball. But when you sign up for a rebuild it's inevitable. And when you decide to get out of the boat in the middle of a crossing it doesn't end well.
Click to expand...

The problem is, they've played pretty good baseball for the entire second half. Some people just go through life with the need to seek out ways to be more miserable.

It's a shame the mods can't do anything about those folks.
 
As for Hill, I mentioned that I understand the injury concerns (and don't disagree completely with anyone who gets scared off by it), but spending on him this winter would accomplish several things that fit what many agree should be strong considerations.

No long-term commitment, and wouldn't block anyone that happened to take steps forward. If the light happened to completely come on for Folty or Newcomb in the next couple of years and they become that #1/#2 type SP that their stuff says they can be, there's not going to be a concern about "Hmmm, I wonder if we can get anything of value for Hill?" Those that love the idea of the perpetual rebuild ought to like that too. Hill and Reddick landed Oakland Cotton, Holmes, and Montas. Hill was the biggest part of that deal, and likely got two of those three alone. So let's play "homer" and assume Folty becomes a legit #2 and at least one of Wisler/Blair/Newcomb takes enough of a step forward to cement themselves in the rotation. If the offense can't keep performing and we're sellers in June, let everyone know Hill's in play and get more prospects. Call Theo and Jed - "You want to go back-to-back? Send me Eloy Jimenez and Jeimer Candelario and your playoff rotation becomes Lester/Arrieta/Hill". If we're not sniffing around "contention" (above .500 with a legitimate shot at a wild card), pawn him off to the highest bidder.

As others have mentioned, you don't want to do anything to get in the way of maintaining future financial flexibility, but you do want to make the on-field product better. Players on 2-3 year deals will do that, and won't get in the way of the kids that the organization is really high on (Albies, Minter, the Rome staff, Maitan, the kids drafted this year, etc.). It's going to be tough to get players on 2-3 year deals that can bring back legitimate impact prospects, but Hill is certainly one that could. We have the money to spend on making the 2017 team better, so why sit on it? IF the "impossible" happens and the team plays well with those players, you just might back into the playoffs. If you don't, who cares? You'd have made the "average" fan awfully happy by taking a shot.
 
clvclv said:
As for Hill, I mentioned that I understand the injury concerns (and don't disagree completely with anyone who gets scared off by it), but spending on him this winter would accomplish several things that fit what many agree should be strong considerations.

No long-term commitment, and wouldn't block anyone that happened to take steps forward. If the light happened to completely come on for Folty or Newcomb in the next couple of years and they become that #1/#2 type SP that their stuff says they can be, there's not going to be a concern about "Hmmm, I wonder if we can get anything of value for Hill?" Those that love the idea of the perpetual rebuild ought to like that too. Hill and Reddick landed Oakland Cotton, Holmes, and Montas. Hill was the biggest part of that deal, and likely got two of those three alone. So let's play "homer" and assume Folty becomes a legit #2 and at least one of Wisler/Blair/Newcomb takes enough of a step forward to cement themselves in the rotation. If the offense can't keep performing and we're sellers in June, let everyone know Hill's in play and get more prospects. Call Theo and Jed - "You want to go back-to-back? Send me Eloy Jimenez and Jeimer Candelario and your playoff rotation becomes Lester/Arrieta/Hill". If we're not sniffing around "contention" (above .500 with a legitimate shot at a wild card), pawn him off to the highest bidder.

As others have mentioned, you don't want to do anything to get in the way of maintaining future financial flexibility, but you do want to make the on-field product better. Players on 2-3 year deals will do that, and won't get in the way of the kids that the organization is really high on (Albies, Minter, the Rome staff, Maitan, the kids drafted this year, etc.). It's going to be tough to get players on 2-3 year deals that can bring back legitimate impact prospects, but Hill is certainly one that could. We have the money to spend on making the 2017 team better, so why sit on it? IF the "impossible" happens and the team plays well with those players, you just might back into the playoffs. If you don't, who cares? You'd have made the "average" fan awfully happy by taking a shot.
Click to expand...

I think they probably have to give Hill a year more than is wise and he'll be pretty expensive. Also, if he's injured, his value is 0 in trade. So it would be a risky sign.

All of these older free agents would be perfectly fine on a two year deal of almost any terms, IMO. that third year is close to a deal breaker to me.

If the Braves say traded for Jaime Garcia and signed Rich Hill stranger things than wild card contention have happened. But it would be one of those years where a lot of things went just right.

I'm interested to see what the offseason looks like. It could go a lot of different ways.
 
The more I think about Quintana, the more I wonder if a package of Newcomb, Sims, and Peterson would be enough to get him.

Jace would immediately become their starting 2B, and would give them a pretty good core up the middle with him, Anderson, Zack Collins, and Eaton in the middle of the diamond. Newcomb and Sims would give them a pretty good group of young pitching that's close when you add Fulmer and Spencer Adams - plus Burdi ready to be David Robertson's understudy.

Invite a veteran like Aybar or Aaron Hill to camp on a non-guaranteed deal in case you need a placeholder for Albies in the event they do decide to have him start in Gwinnett early on.
 
For those of you dreaming on a Quintana trade, consider he has about $80M in surplus value. That quantifies his upside, and his downside is limited because the last 2 years of his control are team options, meaning his team can simply cut him loose if he gets hurt and save themselves $21M minus the buyouts.

Newcomb, a top 50 pitching prospect, is probably worth about $15M-$18M in surplus value. Someone like Sims isn't even a top 100 prospect and is likely valued around $5M-$10M of surplus depending on how high a team is on the chances of him finding some consistency. Jace is a likely 1+ WAR guy at best who will probably be a non-tender candidate when he hits arb 1 or 2 and starts to make more than $2M-$3M, so his surplus value is probably also $5M-$10M at the very most.

Add all that up and $40M of surplus value, at most, from the Braves is about half of the surplus value of Quintana.

A realistic package for Quintana likely starts with Albies ($40M surplus value) and Newcomb ($20M surplus to be generous), and then also includes one of the elite arms from Rome (Touki, Allard, Fried or Soroka). If you want Sale, add in another elite arm from Rome.

If the Braves think Jace can hold down 2B well enough to justify shipping Albies off for Quintana, then a trade for the TOR starter might make some sense. If the Braves are unconfortable giving up that kind of talent (and I hope they are), then any notions of acquiring a pitcher like Sale or Quintana are a pipe dream.
 
I don't think Rich Hill is the perfect player to add, but he does check a lot of the boxes: (1) no draft pick, (2) really good, (3) short term money.

If you are in the camp that favors building the facade of competing next year without mortgaging the future, then I think Hill qualifies as a good candidate. A contract in the 2 years 36 million would be fine by me.
 
Wilson Ramos tore his ACL today/last night. Will have surgery. This is a big hit for him with his impending Free Agency. I was really hoping the Braves would make a run at him.

So with Prado signing an extension with the Marlins and Ramos' injury, that takes away 2 prime targets I was hoping to go after this offseason. (granted Ramos could possibly be had for cheaper now)

I think this makes it more likely we re-visit a McCann swap, go into the season with Garcia/Ruiz at 3b, and go heavy after 2 pitchers via FA or trade
 
I have mentioned Rich Hill in other threads, and I see him as a realistic target. Sure he has some injury issues, but what pitcher doesn't? He is left handed which we currently do not have in our rotation and he has pitched like an ace for the past couple years or so. His age, ok he is older, but that should work in our favor dollar wise and length of contract wise.
He was traded in mid season so no qualifying offer can be made meaning he costs no draft pick plus as a free agent he doesn't cost you players from our system. What is not to like?

clvclv said:
Finally someone we can all say we missed on this list - and I'm having an unbelievably hard time understanding how.

1.) TOR potential.
2.) Left-handed.
3.) BIG-TIME swing-and-miss stuff.
4.) Won't likely require more than a 3 year commitment.
5.) No draft-pick compensation attached even if there's no change to the CBA.

Checks ALL the boxes for us, right?

I think I recall his name being mentioned once or twice, but really only in passing - not as a realistic target. The question is, why not???

RICH HILL

Sure the injury history is checkered, but when he's been on the mound for the last two years he's absolutely performed like an "Ace". I wouldn't personally bat an eye if they offered him 3 years/$54 million.

Add a trade for Santana and bring on Spring Training.

Teheran, Hill, Santana, Folty, ???

Re-sign Collmenter and grab another inexpensive veteran off the scrap heap to split deals (guaranteed if they win a rotation spot) to provide competition for Wisler and Blair as potential trade chips in case they pitch well and to buy more time for Blair/Newcomb/Sims in case of injuries (or non-performance from Matt or Aaron). Jorge de la Rosa is another name not yet mentioned that might prove viable as a name for that as a potential second lefty.
Click to expand...
 
Southcack77 said:
I think they probably have to give Hill a year more than is wise and he'll be pretty expensive. Also, if he's injured, his value is 0 in trade. So it would be a risky sign.

All of these older free agents would be perfectly fine on a two year deal of almost any terms, IMO. that third year is close to a deal breaker to me.

If the Braves say traded for Jaime Garcia and signed Rich Hill stranger things than wild card contention have happened. But it would be one of those years where a lot of things went just right.

I'm interested to see what the offseason looks like. It could go a lot of different ways.
Click to expand...

While I understand a calculated gamble on a pitcher with injury history to try and catch some surplus value with your dollars, I don't know if a guy as checkered as Rich Hill is the way you go. And if you DO, your second signing better be a really healthy guy. If you sign Hill and Garcia, you deserve whatever you get.

It's like sleeping with a really hot girl with a reputation, knowing that it's quite possible that you're gonna get the clap. Enscheff will understand that, what with being a male porn star and all.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
While I understand a calculated gamble on a pitcher with injury history to try and catch some surplus value with your dollars, I don't know if a guy as checkered as Rich Hill is the way you go. And if you DO, your second signing better be a really healthy guy. If you sign Hill and Garcia, you deserve whatever you get.

It's like sleeping with a really hot girl with a reputation, knowing that it's quite possible that you're gonna get the clap. Enscheff will understand that, what with being a male porn star and all.
Click to expand...

All actors in pornography are tested the day of filming.
 
I see no reason for the Braves not to be in on the younger Gurriel brother who is holding private workouts with teams in the near future. At 6'4 he probably has to to move to 3b or the OF. He will need at least a few months in AA or AAA, so he would be a perfect fit for the Braves.
 
Enscheff said:
I see no reason for the Braves not to be in on the younger Gurriel brother who is holding private workouts with teams in the near future. At 6'4 he probably has to to move to 3b or the OF. He will need at least a few months in AA or AAA, so he would be a perfect fit for the Braves.
Click to expand...

Except that most scouting reports say he's not that great of a prospect.
 
Enscheff said:
I see no reason for the Braves not to be in on the younger Gurriel brother who is holding private workouts with teams in the near future. At 6'4 he probably has to to move to 3b or the OF. He will need at least a few months in AA or AAA, so he would be a perfect fit for the Braves.
Click to expand...

True, but he won't count against the international cap, so we will have a ton of competition.
 
smootness said:
True, but he won't count against the international cap, so we will have a ton of competition.
Click to expand...

Yes, and if the bidding goes crazy the Braves need to back away. But they should be in it. It would be foolish to ignore all Cuban talent just because they completely whiffed on Olivera.
 
Enscheff said:
Yes, and if the bidding goes crazy the Braves need to back away. But they should be in it. It would be foolish to ignore all Cuban talent just because they completely whiffed on Olivera.
Click to expand...

I agree, though I generally think Cubans tend to be overvalued on the market, so I would be wary of jumping in too hard or believing too strongly in the hype.
 
smootness said:
I agree, though I generally think Cubans tend to be overvalued on the market, so I would be wary of jumping in too hard or believing too strongly in the hype.
Click to expand...

Braves are late to that party. The tipping point was likely with Jose Abreu. But if you can hit on one you are going to get great value. Hell even if HO was an average player it would of been a good signing financially.
 
thewupk said:
Braves are late to that party. The tipping point was likely with Jose Abreu. But if you can hit on one you are going to get great value. Hell even if HO was an average player it would of been a good signing financially.
Click to expand...

Cuba opening up was like kids being let into a candy store that had been closed for a month. Everything looked great from outside looking through the window. The rock candy was OK. The jellybeans were meh. The HO HO's were rotten as hell.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top