Projecting Folty for 2017

B

bravesguy

Danville Rookie
As I think about what the Braves should do for next year a couple questions come to my mind. The most important question about what they should do is what do they currently have.

Folty is a big question. How do you project him for 2017? He has shown really good...and rally questionable.

On the positive side, if you track his career, he has improved each of his three years in ERA, WHIP, Opp BA, K%, and HR%. If you continue to trend that way, 2017 could be his breakout year.

but

On the negative side, he is still having quality starts every other time out, his ERA is still over 4, his emotions still get the best of him.

I think the Braves are planning on Tehran and Folty being the 2 pitchers they believe they can trust. If so, the 1-2 quality MOR guys (like Colon) could be all they need. If Folty projects at or below 2016, then they really need 3 MOR guys or a TOR and 2 MOR.
 
I personally love Folty. I believe he has the highest upside of any pitcher in our organization. The jumps forward he has taken are very encouraging.

His control and command took huge leaps forward this year. His walks are way down and he is much better able to locate all of his pitches. Tonight he was even locating his curveball inside.

His fastball has always been plus. He just learned and developed his slider while while with the Braves in the past 2 years, and now it's a weapon. His curve has improved. His change has improved, especially the whiff% on it. He needs to throw it more. He has four pitches that have flashed 55 or better all year.

Another step in progression he could easily be a #2 if not a #1.
 
I am not really sure what I see him becoming, but he really reminds me of a young John Smoltz. Competitive with outstanding stuff that never has great stats.

If you remember Smoltz, he was the pitcher that would always have a mid 3 type ERA but when the game mattered, he would shut them down. He would always win around 15 games and was the 1 that you wanted in the playoffs. That is kind of how I see Folty.
 
I was ready to give up on Folty entering the year but he showed potential this year. He is a big reason I think we can contend next year. Most important thing as with any pitcher is health. They drop like flies. If he could give us a sub 4 Era and pitch 200 innings I would be happy.
 
I foresee many spectacular and frustrating outings. He has to learn how to pitch with a big lead. Gets up big last night and proceeds to walk the pitcher. Great stuff, but he likely thinks too much instead of trusting his stuff.
 
The most likely outcome is solid mid-rotation starter. A 2 win player. There is upside, and as with all pitchers downside risk from injuries and other factors, but that is the most likely outcome.
 
nsacpi said:
The most likely outcome is solid mid-rotation starter. A 2 win player. There is upside, and as with all pitchers downside risk from injuries and other factors, but that is the most likely outcome.
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Barring health issues, I would say that's selling him short of "most likely outcome". He could certainly be that or worse, but he's not far from that now, and does seem to continue to progress.
 
I am hoping for a big step (which would make him a #2 type) but I am prepared for a gradual improvement (which is a #3/4 type) and just pray he doesn't regress (which makes him not good enough to staff a winning team).
 
jimsnores said:
Barring health issues, I would say that's selling him short of "most likely outcome". He could certainly be that or worse, but he's not far from that now, and does seem to continue to progress.
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He could take a big step forward. He could stagnate. He could get hurt. Or he could take a modest step forward. I think the outcome that comes closest to the weighted average is a modest step forward.

Last year there were 5 starting pitchers under age 25 who put up WAR in the 1-2 range and had not exceeded 2 WAR in a season prior to 2015. Here is what they have put up this year: 2.5, 2.4, 1.1, 0.7, 0.0. Two improved, one stayed about the same, and two regressed. Not one took what could be called a big step forward.
 
I'm thinking a 3/4 type is probably accurate. There's a chance he has years of 1/2 upside but his ERA probably levels out around 3.60-3.80. That's really solid, so I'm not complaining! It's all about command and his emotional issues.
 
If he becomes awesome we won't be able to afford him like we could 20 years ago, so lets hope he pitches outstanding for us the next few years.
 
50PoundHead said:
I foresee many spectacular and frustrating outings. He has to learn how to pitch with a big lead. Gets up big last night and proceeds to walk the pitcher. Great stuff, but he likely thinks too much instead of trusting his stuff.
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I'll probably always have problems with his attitude on the mound (until and unless it changes), but I personally hung that one on Flowers. What in the *ell was he doing calling for breaking balls to the Pitcher with an 8 run lead??? Granted, he's had trouble pitching with big leads, but there's absolutely NO reason to call those when a Pitcher that's hitting .091 is in the box IMO.
 
I expect him to be the Ace of the staff by the end of next season. All he needs to do is not be such a headcase and suddenly he is a legit TOR guy.
 
I think he's Jeff Samarja (Sp?). I think you'll be happy with him as a 3 and crush if he's you're 4. I think he'll be an ace on some nights and a dog on others.

It's not crazy to think he could be a lot more. He should play in front of a much better defense moving forward if he can keep the mistakes in the park.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think he's Jeff Samarja (Sp?). I think you'll be happy with him as a 3 and crush if he's you're 4. I think he'll be an ace on some nights and a dog on others.

It's not crazy to think he could be a lot more. He should play in front of a much better defense moving forward if he can keep the mistakes in the park.
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Good luck. There is some evidence that mlb has juiced the balls to put more offense back into the league.
 
fully expect him to be a 3ish ERA next year. He has the stuff.. his mental approach has improved. He missed the entire off season due to injury. As much as we poke fun of Neck for using that excuse, it does seem legit now that his power numbers are back to norm this year over last year.
 
thewupk said:
Good luck. There is some evidence that mlb has juiced the balls to put more offense back into the league.
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Is there really any evidence beyond MLB hitters hitting more homers this year? Honest question...

Just more homers is evidence, but not very strong unless there is some other evidence to corroborate.
 
mfree80 said:
Is there really any evidence beyond MLB hitters hitting more homers this year? Honest question...

Just more homers is evidence, but not very strong unless there is some other evidence to corroborate.
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Jeff Sullivan has done a couple of articles the past 2 days looking into this

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-weird-thing-about-the-home-run-surge/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/home-runs-and-the-middle-class/

In 2016 there have been 104 different players hit 20+ homers which is a new record which was the 1999 season. Basically baseballs are traveling about 3-5 feet or so farther than last year. Doesn't seem like a lot but if you are one of those middle tier power hitters who has warning track power then that 3-5 feet will put a few more beyond the fence. It would corroborate with so many players hitting 20+ homers this year.

2016 currently has the 3rd most homers of any year in the past 20 and will likely get to #2. It does have the highest HR/FB% in the batted ball data era (since 2002). Apparently MLB has denied the ball juicing but there is something going on.
 
thewupk said:
Jeff Sullivan has done a couple of articles the past 2 days looking into this

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-weird-thing-about-the-home-run-surge/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/home-runs-and-the-middle-class/

In 2016 there have been 104 different players hit 20+ homers which is a new record which was the 1999 season. Basically baseballs are traveling about 3-5 feet or so farther than last year. Doesn't seem like a lot but if you are one of those middle tier power hitters who has warning track power then that 3-5 feet will put a few more beyond the fence. It would corroborate with so many players hitting 20+ homers this year.

2016 currently has the 3rd most homers of any year in the past 20 and will likely get to #2. It does have the highest HR/FB% in the batted ball data era (since 2002). Apparently MLB has denied the ball juicing but there is something going on.
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Thanks. The added distance is really interesting!
 
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