Projecting Out the Rebuild

[nsacpi]

I'm interested in taking an early look at where the team might sit on the expected win curve over time

First some preliminaries before looking at things year by year. With a steady influx of talent about half the team going forward is likely to be within their arb and pre-arb periods, and the other half acquired at market price. The pre-arb group costs very little. The arb group on average half of what their market value is. These two cost controlled groups together will cost about a quarter of what the market price group will cost. This means overall payroll is split about 20% for the group that is cost controlled and 80% for the group that is market price. For a mid-market team with a payroll of say $150M it would mean 120M for market priced players and 30M for the cost-controlled group.

For 120M you can get about 15 wins above replacement at the going rate. A team of replacement level players gets you 48 wins. So a mid-market team that is "average" in terms of picking out market priced players starts out with about 63 wins. The rest come from the cost controlled group. And this is where I want to focus year-by-year. What I'm going to do is list the players currently within the system who might be on the ML team as a cost controlled player each year and also give an estimate of what they might produce in terms of WAR as a group. It will give us an idea of how we might move up the expected win curve over the next few years. Note that just because I list a player doesn't mean he will be on the ML roster. There will be busts. There will be trades. But I'm giving an expected WAR (or equivalent contribution if traded) of the group that with normal development might be a cost-controlled ML player each year.

2017 Teheran, Vizcaino, Inciarte, Simmons, Peterson, Olivera, Banuelos, Smith, Castro, Perez, Blair, Folty (Projected WAR 15. My projection, obviously open to discussion)

2018 Teheran, Vizcaino, Inciarte, Simmons, Peterson, Olivera Banuelos, Smith, Castro, Perez, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Gant, Jenkins, Ruiz, Swanson (projected WAR 18)

2019 Vizcaino, Inciarte, Simmons, Peterson, Olivera, Banuelos, Smith, Castro, Perez, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Gant, Jenkins, Ruiz, Swanson, Albies, Davidson, Toussaint (projected WAR 18)

2020 Inciarte, Simmons, Olivera, Banuelos, Smith, Castro, Perez, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Gant, Jenkins, Ruiz, Swanson, Albies, Davidson, Toussaint, Allard, Soroka, Riley, Yepez, Acuna, Dykstra, Minter, Herbert, Graham, 2016#1 pick (Projected WAR 24)

2021 Olivera, Banuelos, Smith, Castro, Perez, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Gant, Jenkins, Ruiz, Swanson, Albies, Davidson,Toussaint, Allard, Soroka, Riley, Yepez, Acuna, Dykstra, Minter, Herbert, Ventura, Wilson, Baez, Cruz, Pasche, 2016 #1 pick, other 2016 draftees (Projected WAR 26)

2022 Smith, Castro, Perez, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Gant, Jenkins, Ruiz, Swanson, Albies, Davidson, Toussaint, Allard, Soroka, Riley, Yepez, Acuna, Dykstra, Minter, Herbert, Ventura, Wilson, Cruz, Pasche, Draftees from 2016 onward, Maitan, Guttierez (Projected WAR 28)

I'll stop now since it is a lot to digest. But I think the contour is interesting and consistent with the way the talent is distributed in our minor league system. There should be a significant improvement over the 2019-2021 timeframe. Prior to that materializing, we are mostly going to be a sub-.500 team.

 

[smootness]

I think you've lost your mind if you think we'll still be a below-.500 team come 2018, let alone 2017.

I mean, you project those guys in 2019 to average under 1 WAR per player. That's insane.

 

[nsacpi]

I think you've lost your mind if you think we'll still be a below-.500 team come 2018, let alone 2017.

I mean, you project those guys in 2019 to average under 1 WAR per player. That's insane.

how many wins would u expect for 2017 and 2018

 

[msstate7]

'16 -- 81-81

'17 -- '30 -- east champs and 5 World Series titles. During the run, Swanson, FF, Albies, Riley, and Olivera win an mvp. Fredi retires after the '30 season and is a 1st ballot hof.

I'm probably a little pessimistic...

 

[dak]

Interesting analysis. Is the Simmons listed Shae? I'm only going on feel here (and maybe wishful thinking), but I think we're likely to end up a little higher in the earlier years listed. In other words, we'll climb the ladder a little more quickly than shown. One big question that remains is what we do with the significant stack of money we have in 2016 (sign a desperate free agent?, use it to acquire 16 year-old Latin American players?, use it to acquire prospects that are close to MLB-ready?). Leaving that uncertainty aside, I'd guesstimate something like this . . .

2017 median win projection: 81
2018 median win projection: 85
2019 median win projection: 89

It's an imperfect analogy, but the 2017 Braves could be in a position similar to the 2015 Astros. Start the season as a less likely playoff contender, but give ourselves a real chance if some of the young talent breaks through.

 

[jimsnores]

Yeah where's Newcombe's 4 CY's?

He admitted to being a little pessimistic.

 

[Julio3000]

I think you've lost your mind if you think we'll still be a below-.500 team come 2018, let alone 2017.

I mean, you project those guys in 2019 to average under 1 WAR per player. That's insane.

I think we should be cautious not to assume that these guys are going to arrive in the bigs as finished products, and therefore some restraint in projection is warranted.

 

[nsacpi]

I think we should be cautious not to assume that these guys are going to arrive in the bigs as finished products, and therefore some restraint in projection is warranted.

Not to mention the guys who are outright busts. I think a lot of people underestimate the attrition rate for pitchers and also the uncertainty about the path of even elite prospects when they are very far away from the majors.

 

[Knucksie]

I think you've lost your mind if you think we'll still be a below-.500 team come 2018, let alone 2017.

I mean, you project those guys in 2019 to average under 1 WAR per player. That's insane.

He does seem to have a little too much time on his hands. Seriously, this problem has been going back to the Scout days. Somebody projects out the Braves roster will only consist of prospects from the system, as if nobody will ever get traded, hurt, bust, get suspended, die, etc. It's ridiculous to even think about 2022 just to start a thread.

 

[nsacpi]

Note that just because I list a player doesn't mean he will be on the ML roster. There will be busts. There will be trades. But I'm giving an expected WAR (or equivalent contribution if traded) of the group that with normal development might be a cost-controlled ML player each year.

Since I happen to have some time on my hands, I'm going to indulge and quote my opening post. I realize it was a long post and that those of us with busy productive lives might not have read the whole thing and missed out on the part I'm quoting.

 

[nsacpi]

He does seem to have a little too much time on his hands. Seriously, this problem has been going back to the Scout days. Somebody projects out the Braves roster will only consist of prospects from the system, as if nobody will ever get traded, hurt, bust, get suspended, die, etc. It's ridiculous to even think about 2022 just to start a thread.

This may astound you. But I'm the proprietor of two companies (profitable ones mind you) with a total of fifteen employees. One I started from scratch in 2005 and the other I took over two years ago. I guess when you are the boss you have a little more flexibility in how you allocate your time. But rest assured, I'm a working boss who travels extensively to meet with clients not one who sits at home and waits for a check to come in. I shudder to think what I might have done with my life if I hadn't been so self-indulgent about my love for the Braves.

P.S. I'll be in Atlanta next week. Any local fans who would like to have a drink can pm me. The following week it will be Seattle. Any Braves fans in the Pacific Northwest? And Minneapolis the week after.

 

[Eyeman]

I appreciate the effort. Also I'd like to know how you have free time as a business owner, I sure don't.

I've never seen a breakdown like this where you add in your cost controlled players to your base plus salary. I'd generally think that effectively get the best WAR out of your big earners would be how to win but in a rebuild it probably is more critical what you get out of your young core.

Not that I could break it down any better but the big thing that sticks out to me is high prospects will probably jump levels faster and add to our WAR earlier. I bet Dansby get a Sept callup this year, full year 2017. Ozzie and Newcomb half a year in 2017. Fried is missing and I'd bet some young pitcher like him or Allard gets hot and hits much earlier than expected. I also expect this year's top pick and whoever we pickup internationally to be top prospects and jump over levels quickly.

It will be fun to watch either way!

 

[nsacpi]

In most cases, I assumed one level a year. But in Dansby's case I have him going through High A and Double A in 2016 and AAA in 2017. 2018 would be his first full season in the bigs. If I list a player for the first time that would be the year I expect him to have his first full season in the majors. His debut might come the year before.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Performance in baseball is rarely linear. Theres up and downs and career years and injuries. The only real strategy is get as much talent as possible and hope for the best. The only thing thats for sure is that nothing is for sure.

 

[Knucksie]

This may astound you. But I'm the proprietor of two companies (profitable ones mind you) with a total of fifteen employees. One I started from scratch in 2005 and the other I took over two years ago. I guess when you are the boss you have a little more flexibility in how you allocate your time. But rest assured, I'm a working boss who travels extensively to meet with clients not one who sits at home and waits for a check to come in. I shudder to think what I might have done with my life if I hadn't been so self-indulgent about my love for the Braves.

P.S. I'll be in Atlanta next week. Any local fans who would like to have a drink can pm me. The following week it will be Seattle. Any Braves fans in the Pacific Northwest? And Minneapolis the week after.

That's a nice situation for you to have the free time to do this, as opposed to golfing or whatever else. It doesn't address the rationale behind trying to map out for at least 50% of those prospects who won't even be in the organization at any level within the next few years. You've been around long enough to realize how much roster turnover occurs within a year's time.

 

[Dalyn]

 

[zbhargrove]

That's a nice situation for you to have the free time to do this, as opposed to golfing or whatever else. It doesn't address the rationale behind trying to map out for at least 50% of those prospects who won't even be in the organization at any level within the next few years. You've been around long enough to realize how much roster turnover occurs within a year's time.

Here's the real question... why do you care? If you don't care to invest the time in reading the post, then don't read it.

 

[nsacpi]

It doesn't address the rationale behind trying to map out for at least 50% of those prospects who won't even be in the organization at any level within the next few years. You've been around long enough to realize how much roster turnover occurs within a year's time.

See post #10 of this thread.

 

[smootness]

I think we should be cautious not to assume that these guys are going to arrive in the bigs as finished products, and therefore some restraint in projection is warranted.

I'm not assuming anything, but I certainly take issue with the assumption that we'll be a below-.500 team until 2019.

If someone wants to throw that out there as a possibility, fine. It's a possibility for a lot of teams. But is it a probable outcome, or even a reasonable prediction? I don't think so.

 

[nsacpi]

I'm not assuming anything, but I certainly take issue with the assumption that we'll be a below-.500 team until 2019.

If someone wants to throw that out there as a possibility, fine. It's a possibility for a lot of teams. But is it a probable outcome, or even a reasonable prediction? I don't think so.

The projections I give in the OP are 78, 81 and 81 wins in 2017-19. I'm curious. What are your expectations.