If my goal is to win a world series and I was comfortable with my team making the postseason then its Kershaw.
Kershaw faces about 700-800 batters per year assuming 200+ innings. How many PA's does Trout get a year?
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If my goal is to win a world series and I was comfortable with my team making the postseason then its Kershaw.
Kershaw faces about 700-800 batters per year assuming 200+ innings. How many PA's does Trout get a year?
The same Kershaw who is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in the playoffs?
I really hope you aren't trying to say a pitcher is more valuable than an everyday player of the same talent level? This is not the case. It's never been the case.
Why wouldn't a PA for trout count the same as a Batter faced for Kershaw?
For starters, Kershaw's batters faced impact about 30 games and Trout's PAs impact 150+.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Another comment that is very not you. Is thethe getting to you. Seriously. If you were in a game 7 and had to pick one pitcher in all of baseball you would NOT pick Kershaw? Really? Now I agree that a hitter impacts the regular season more than pitchers. Just more games. However, in a playoff series a pitcher will have more impact if we are talking equal talent.
Having Kershaw going 3 games in a 7 game series is more valuabl than trouts 30 PA in a 7 game series. I mean the other team could effectively elimInate his impact.
Assuming even just 2 games Kershaw would face 50 batters conservatively. Trout at most would have 35 PA.
The old adage that hitters are more valuable than pitchers is not accurate.
Is it though? Maybe Kershaw can't handle the playoffs? If I want a pitcher in the playoffs right now it's Madison Bumgardener. Nothing is a guarantee in the playoffs due to the small sample size of it. If I'm starting a team it's always going to be the best position player.
Wow....progress!
Actually admitting that there might be more to baseball than just what's on a statsheet! I'm happy for you.
When have I never not admitted to that? Also the goal is to build teams to reach the playoffs not necessarily win in them. Every time a team wins that's considered the way to win in the playoffs. There is no magic formula. Dodgers have arguably who could be the best pitcher ever and haven't made it to the WS yet. Doesn't mean he wouldn't be my #1 pitcher in a draft.
Any response to the fact that Kershaw faces more batters in a season than Trout has ABs? The defense certainly closes the gap to maybe even trout having more value but let's not act like this gap is large is a gap at all.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Good call on Madison. Yeah I agree Kershaw hasn't been great in the playoffs although he was better this last time around but still not perfect. I also agree that I would choose a heater as well because like you said they are safer and have more impact in the regular season. What about 2 elite pitchers versus two elite hitters or three elite pitchers versus 3 Elite hitters
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
A hitter will have more impact on the regular season there's no way you can argue otherwise. They just get the impact more games. But in the playoffs yes a picture can have a lot more impact because his percentage of games impacted is gonna be much higher than in the regular season.
Kershaw's WAR range since he hit his stride: 5.5-7.8
Trout's oWAR range: 8.6-10.0
The top pitchers can't quite get to where the top hitters can in value. Why? I haven't read into why that is from a statistical perspective. Perhaps it's simply because there's a bigger gap between a replacement-level hitter and the elite than there is between a replacement-level pitcher and the elite?
To use extremely crude calculations, let's say replacement-level ERA is 5. Let's say Kershaw throws 230 IP and allows an ERA of 1.6. Even with those sick numbers, he's saving his team about 87 runs over a replacement-level pitcher. Trout's runs created has been in the 135-155 range basically. How many runs does a replacement-level hitter create? I don't know, but if the gap between Trout's runs created and replacement-level is bigger than the gap between Kershaw's runs saved and replacement-level, then that's probably your answer.
What kind of response do you need? Position players are judged on more than when they just stand in the batters box. Using plate appearances vs batters faced is silly.
This is true, too. Trout's oWAR includes his base running as well. So in addition to the adage that position players impact more games, position players just have more ways to impact a game than a pitcher does.
How do you account for the great starting pitchers facing more batters than great hitters get PA.
Also, you can easily just walk trout to help nullify his effectiveness in a game
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
If the game 7 was in July, sure. If its in October or Novemeber I want Bumgarner. Smoltz might have been the 3rd best starter on the Braves but I would pick him for game 7 over anyone ever.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Look, it's not the hardest thing in the world to trade off assets for prospects so I'm not really touting the organization as geniuses for having a top 3 farm system, but they do have a top 3 farm system and its based on a lot more than deals done with Dave Stewart.
I feel like their strategy has been relatively consistent. I think maybe the degree to which they were serious about being respectable may have changed last year. They were not particularly serious about it the first two seasons as they sold off a respectable team and the pieces of a terrible team in the first two seasons. Acquiring Kemp to me was the biggest departure from not really caring about being respectable. That was a big investment in a .500 player. Still not really sure why they did that management got nervous.
Again, it's about the gap in players. Why would facing more batters than a hitter has PAs necessarily make pitchers more valuable?
And sure, you can walk an elite hitter. But that doesn't really negate the value of that hitter.