¿Qué decisión tomar con respecto a Peráza?

[thethe]

So I expanded my theory of how average with runners in socring positions correlates to strikeout totals to 2014 as well as 2015.

I groups the top 10 teams and bottom 10 teams together and came up with the following:

In 2015 the top 10 teams in averages with runners in scoring position (avgRISP) had an average strikeout (avgSO) team rank of 18 (lower meaning less K's). The bottom 10 teams in avgRISP had an avgSO rank of 14.

This trend continues in 2014. Top 10 teams with in avgRISP had an avgSP of 16.7. The bottom 10 teams in avgRISP had an avgSO rank of 11.9.

I am going to continue to do this analysis a few years back but I'm starting to believe that those teams that don't strikeout as much will fair better in avgRISP. Sometimes all you need is a single in those spots.

 

[Heyward]

I may be in the minority but I would just stick with CB at catcher. Yeah he probably sucks on offense but he is a plus defender IMO. And we can afford that assuming we don't have any SVOD on the rest of the lineup.

I dont know, since we dont have a lot of power, and the assets we have, i dont think trading for Lucroy would be bad depending what it would cost.

 

[thethe]

Going back now to 2012 & 2013 I found the following.

2015: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 18.1. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 14.3.

2014: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 16.7. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 11.9.

2013: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 19.6. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 8.5.

2012: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 18.9. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 10.9.

Note: Higher avgRISP rank means a better average. Higher avgSO rank means the team is striking out more.

I'm beginning to see a pattern here.

 

[chop2chip]

Going back now to 2012 & 2013 I found the following.

2015: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 18.1. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 14.3.

2014: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 16.7. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 11.9.

2013: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 19.6. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 8.5.

2012: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 18.9. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 10.9.

Note: Higher avgRISP rank means a better average. Higher avgSO rank means the team is striking out more.

I'm beginning to see a pattern here.

Average is one thing. It makes logical sense that teams that strikeout less will have a higher average, but what about double plays, power numbers, walks, etc.?

A single with a runner on second might score a runner. A homerun is guaranteed to score two. Not all hits are equal.

 

[thethe]

Average is one thing. It makes logical sense that teams that strikeout less will have a higher average, but what about double plays, power numbers, walks, etc.?

A single with a runner on second might score a runner. A homerun is guaranteed to score two. Not all hits are equal.

So then we should determine a success ratio. I still believe that average is the most important thing with runners in scoring position.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

This is an example of bad statistical analysis.

Mallex Smith and Jace Peterson are far inferior prospects to Jose Peraza. As has been touched over and over again in this thread. I just wanted to make this point abundantly clear.

First I'll discuss Peterson. Right now, his performance for this season is likely the best he'll ever be. His performance from the plate is very similar to minor league production. He may improve power, but that's very remote as he doesn't lift the ball much (28% of the time). He may have a statistical outlier season, but this is probably the best we'll see him. It's not bad. But why take Peraza over him? Because Peraza can do it all better. Sure he won't walk like Peterson, he's been in the 4-6 range instead of the 10-12 range. And that's significant. It means Peraza will never be an elite hitter, but Peterson could be if he added power. I think there's a better chance of Peraza increasing his walk rate to 10% then Peterson getting his iso over .200. Neither will happen. but one of them basically just requires Peraza to stop swinging. Similar power levels. Maybe a small advantage to Peterson. But where Peraza distances himself is the putting the ball in play part, he regularly strikes out around 10% of the time or lower. That liekly continues in the majors. Even if defense is a push (which it very well may be) Peraza adds offensive value by being a base stealing force. Every level up until this year (I think he's hurt righ tnow) he's stolen a pace over 60 stolen bases per 150 games. That's insane. Basically always north of 80% success as well. He's been a terror in the paths.

Mallex Smith has been great this year. But I think people need to curb expectations a little. his BABIP is over .400. I don't think that's really super maintainable. I think to your original point. Mallex is a lot like Jace but with much better speed. his speed is probably insignificant from Peraza's. Maybe a little better. I think Smith's disadvange vs the other 2 is that he's already striing out close to 20% in the minors. That likely will rise in the majros.

Actually, this is an example of bad statistical analysis. Jumps in logic, inaccurate assumption, strawmen...it's all in there. Good for you.

Kate Upton will run naked down Peachtree before a Brave steals 60 bags. With slide steps and the advent of guys like you telling us a basestealer needs to average like 75% to break even, very few teams run at the ML level any more. That and the Braves proclivity not to run will neutralize what you perceive to be Peraza's most appealing attribute. Peraza steals 30 bags. BFD.

Peterson's defense is elite. Even your precious metrics agree on that. Is Peraza's?

Peterson has a 75 point delta between BA and OBP (potential for more). Will Peraza?

Peterson is OBPing .355 and I certainly don't think he's over his head or hit his ceiling. He's almost certainly got another ten OBP points coming as his eye acclimates to the big leagues, and he could hit a little more. .380 is reasonable. .380 with elite defense. You think your boy can do that?

Typically, guys who don't command the strike zone don't get many strikes when they get to the Show. Is it possible Peraza will have that problem and have a significant adjustment period, or maybe never adjust?

I find it amusing that the guy who strikes out 10% of the time in the minors will likely continue at that pace, while the guy who strikes out 20% of the time will see that rise. You don't know that. You're just running your mouth.

 

[chop2chip]

So then we should determine a success ratio. I still believe that average is the most important thing with runners in scoring position.

Success ratio is fine (I guess that would be OBP?), but using even OPS would be more telling. I like wRC+ the best.

Average with RISP is as important as average with no one on base. Context matters, but you need men on base before you can hit with RISP.

 

[thewupk]

I think you need to look at those teams and see what their batting average is in general not just with RISP. If a team has a good average (whether they K a lot or not) they will generally have a good average with RISP.

 

[chop2chip]

Actually, this is an example of bad statistical analysis. Jumps in logic, inaccurate assumption, strawmen...it's all in there. Good for you.

Kate Upton will run naked down Peachtree before a Brave steals 60 bags. With slide steps and the advent of guys like you telling us a basestealer needs to average like 75% to break even, very few teams run at the ML level any more. That and the Braves proclivity not to run will neutralize what you perceive to be Peraza's most appealing attribute. Peraza steals 30 bags. BFD.

Peterson's defense is elite. Even your precious metrics agree on that. Is Peraza's?

Peterson has a 75 point delta between BA and OBP (potential for more). Will Peraza?

Peterson is OBPing .355 and I certainly don't think he's over his head or hit his ceiling. He's almost certainly got another ten OBP points coming as his eye acclimates to the big leagues, and he could hit a little more. .380 is reasonable. .380 with elite defense. You think your boy can do that?

Typically, guys who don't command the strike zone don't get many strikes when they get to the Show. Is it possible Peraza will have that problem and have a significant adjustment period, or maybe never adjust?

I find it amusing that the guy who strikes out 10% of the time in the minors will likely continue at that pace, while the guy who strikes out 20% of the time will see that rise. You don't know that. You're just running your mouth.

Michael Bourn swiped over 40 stolen bases with the the Braves. The Braves will run (and are doing so with Maybin, and would with Peterson if he wasn't so bad at reading pitchers). Besides, you can't judge a prospect's ability based off a manager's perceived weakness. If the manager isn't utilizing his players talents, get a different manager who will.

As for Peraza's defense, he's regarded as the best defensive 2B in the minors with scouts throwing a 70 on his glove. Defense tends to translate very well to the major leagues, so I have little doubt that he would be an elite defensive 2B.

Peterson is going to walk more than Peraza, but Peraza should be the better hitter. It is unfair to compare Peraza to a "380 OBP" when Peterson has not proven he can be that player.

It makes a lot more sense to project a low strike out hitter to continues striking out a low rate then it does to project that a player who strikes out a lot to decrease his strikeouts when he reaches the majors.

 

[smootness]

Mallex's BABIP has been .373 or higher everywhere he's been for the last two years. While it's reasonable to expect it to come down in the majors, it's also reasonable to think it isn't luck-driven right now and that it will always be well above-average because of his speed.

He's not a sure thing, but he's now a really good prospect. I think people saw his rankings coming into this year, so they assume he's kind of smoke and mirrors. But he's absolutely tearing up AA; he's a legit prospect now.

With regard to Peterson vs. Peraza, I'm now ok with either way the a Braves want to go there.

 

[nsacpi]

I think maybe we are talking about different things. When I talk about luck I'm not talking about hitting with RISP. Teams that hit well and strike out less will hit well with RISP.

What I mean by luck is the gap between hitting with RISP and overall hitting. For the NL as a whole OPS with RISP is .728 and overall OPS is .707. A gap of .021.

For the Braves OPS with RISP is .778 and overall OPS is .695 for a gap of .083. This is what I mean by luck. The fact that we are doing so well with RISP.

Even more remarkable is our pinch hitting performance. So far we have a pinch hitting OPS of .797. For the National League as a whole it is .604.

Luck doesn't last forever. It is not predictable. This is why I think every year you try to build a team that is projected to have a winning record. If you add some luck to that baseline you have a magical season (see KC Royals last year). Every year you have a team or two like that. The luck part is completely outside our control. The part the front office has some control over is where you are on the expected win curve. If we had been a team that was at 80-85 wins on the expected win curve and had the same luck, this would be an amazing season.

But we started the year as a 70-75 win team. And it has been fun watching it out-perform. But we should not delude ourselves about why that is happening. Maybe a small part is Seitzer, better approach, battling on every at bat, Maybin finding himself, etc. But mostly the offensive surprise is luck. This would be a boring team if the gap between our OPS with RISP and overall OPS was the league average .021 rather than .083.

Going back now to 2012 & 2013 I found the following.

2015: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 18.1. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 14.3.

2014: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 16.7. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 11.9.

2013: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 19.6. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 8.5.

2012: Top 10 in avgRISP had avgSO rank of 18.9. Bottom 10 in avgRISP had avgSo rank of 10.9.

Note: Higher avgRISP rank means a better average. Higher avgSO rank means the team is striking out more.

I'm beginning to see a pattern here.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Michael Bourn swiped over 40 stolen bases with the the Braves. The Braves will run (and are doing so with Maybin, and would with Peterson if he wasn't so bad at reading pitchers). Besides, you can't judge a prospect's ability based off a manager's perceived weakness. If the manager isn't utilizing his players talents, get a different manager who will.

As for Peraza's defense, he's regarded as the best defensive 2B in the minors with scouts throwing a 70 on his glove. Defense tends to translate very well to the major leagues, so I have little doubt that he would be an elite defensive 2B.

Peterson is going to walk more than Peraza, but Peraza should be the better hitter. It is unfair to compare Peraza to a "380 OBP" when Peterson has not proven he can be that player.

It makes a lot more sense to project a low strike out hitter to continues striking out a low rate then it does to project that a player who strikes out a lot to decrease his strikeouts when he reaches the majors.

Yeah, Bourn stole 40. After averaging 60 the three years prior. We don't run. To the extent that we do, I think it's appropriate to adjust the player's total bases by the net successful steals so it gets picked up in the SLG element of OPS. So speed is a weapon, but basically the same as a guy who hits a lot of doubles, right?

Fredi's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only place he is reviled is message boards like this one. He is perceived by his bosses, his peers and the industry as a good manager. Besides, it was Bobby who wasn't running for a long time. The game changed.

I'm glad to hear Peraza's glove is that good. You think it plays at shortstop? If so, do you think he might be a guy who would be worth more to somebody else, since we've kind of got short covered for the next eight years?

I agree, I shouldn't have tried to measure Peraza against a hypothetical .380. He's not gonna OBP .355 either. That was because Zito was being a prick. I used to do the same thing with my ex-wife when she pissed me off. Didn't work then, either. The bitch.

I think the strikeout hypothesis is probably true, but let's face it - it's far from an absolute. There are guys who struck out 10% in the minors who wind up at 15% and guys who struck out 20% who wind up at 15%. But one thing I do know - in the Show, if you prove you will swing at pitches that aren't strikes, pretty soon you won't see any strikes. So I don't think Peraza's particular 10% with a very low walk rate translates as well as, say, a Tommy LaStella, who made a lot of contact but also had a lot of discipline.

 

[Knucksie]

It's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

- Gov. Clinton Tyree (and possibly Branch Rickey)

We'll just have to agree to disagree. No rush on disposition for Peraza, and it's premature to claim it's too early to decide on his fate now.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. No rush on disposition for Peraza, and it's premature to claim it's too early to decide on his fate now.

Yeah, it's no problem. I like Jace, Mallex, Simba, and Maybin in those jobs. I can certainly see the argument that Peterson hasn't done it long enough and that Peraza might be the superior player at some point. But I'm a big OBP guy and I think I know how that's going to turn out.

Go Braves. Let's find some reliable bullpen arms so our starters can step back from the ledge. Or put down their Glocks.

 

[thethe]

I think maybe we are talking about different things. When I talk about luck I'm not talking about hitting with RISP. Teams that hit well and strike out less will hit well with RISP.

What I mean by luck is the gap between hitting with RISP and overall hitting. For the NL as a whole OPS with RISP is .728 and overall OPS is .707. A gap of .021.

For the Braves OPS with RISP is .778 and overall OPS is .695 for a gap of .083. This is what I mean by luck. The fact that we are doing so well with RISP.

Even more remarkable is our pinch hitting performance. So far we have a pinch hitting OPS of .797. For the National League as a whole it is .604.

Luck doesn't last forever. It is not predictable. This is why I think every year you try to build a team that is projected to have a winning record. If you add some luck to that baseline you have a magical season (see KC Royals last year). Every year you have a team or two like that. The luck part is completely outside our control. The part the front office has some control over is where you are on the expected win curve. If we had been a team that was at 80-85 wins on the expected win curve and had the same luck, this would be an amazing season.

But we started the year as a 70-75 win team. And it has been fun watching it out-perform. But we should not delude ourselves about why that is happening. Maybe a small part is Seitzer, better approach, battling on every at bat, Maybin finding himself, etc. But mostly the offensive surprise is luck. This would be a boring team if the gap between our OPS with RISP and overall OPS was the league average .021 rather than .083.

OPS is too power dependent if you ask me. I think OBP is much more important than SLG.

Either way, the reason I am looking at average is because there are limited times over the course of a game where you are going to get a runner in scoring position and I believe the more often you get hits in those positions the better. I am just trying to corrleate those teams that take an approach of not strikingout and succeeding with hits when the situation presents itself. I am actually surprised that my theory held true over the course of 4 seasons.

 

[gilesfan]

OPS is too power dependent if you ask me. I think OBP is much more important than SLG.

Either way, the reason I am looking at average is because there are limited times over the course of a game where you are going to get a runner in scoring position and I believe the more often you get hits in those positions the better. I am just trying to corrleate those teams that take an approach of not strikingout and succeeding with hits when the situation presents itself. I am actually surprised that my theory held true over the course of 4 seasons.

To be honest, your analysis was fairly pointless and doesn't tell us anything. Batting average doesn't tell us a whole lot. You could bat .500 with a RISP and never drive in a run and have a guy bat .100 but drive in 2 runs.

As I said previously, there are tons of studies already done. Just google, there is plenty info available that is more relevant than what you've done.

 

[thethe]

To be honest, your analysis was fairly pointless and doesn't tell us anything. Batting average doesn't tell us a whole lot. You could bat .500 with a RISP and never drive in a run and have a guy bat .100 but drive in 2 runs.

As I said previously, there are tons of studies already done. Just google, there is plenty info available that is more relevant than what you've done.

I am fairly certain that a higher average with RISP will lead to more runs over the long haul.

Also, I wish you weren't so much of an ass when you posted. I just don't get why you have so much disrespect towards me.

 

[zitothebrave]

I think its perfectly reasonable to assume a 24 year old rookie is going to have his career year in his first season.

1 Peterson is 25. As far as mental and physical maturity he's gone about as far as he'll go.

2. Given on his professional results, Not hard to go off of. In the MInors he struck out about 13.5% of the time and walked about 12.5. Odds are there won't be too much improvement or regression from his current walk and K rates. So that likely means his average and OBP will stay right around where he is at. his minors iso was .138. So maybe there's room for improvement there, but who knows. Having seen what I've seen of him, he looks like a sub .100 power guy, maybe I'm wrong. Given his ability, his BABIP is about where it should be as well. Some guys skillset limits their offensive production. Said the same basic think about TLS last year when his wRC+ was around 100 and I think those 2 are basically the same hitter.

 

[zitothebrave]

Actually, this is an example of bad statistical analysis. Jumps in logic, inaccurate assumption, strawmen...it's all in there. Good for you.

Kate Upton will run naked down Peachtree before a Brave steals 60 bags. With slide steps and the advent of guys like you telling us a basestealer needs to average like 75% to break even, very few teams run at the ML level any more. That and the Braves proclivity not to run will neutralize what you perceive to be Peraza's most appealing attribute. Peraza steals 30 bags. BFD.

Peterson's defense is elite. Even your precious metrics agree on that. Is Peraza's?

Peterson has a 75 point delta between BA and OBP (potential for more). Will Peraza?

Peterson is OBPing .355 and I certainly don't think he's over his head or hit his ceiling. He's almost certainly got another ten OBP points coming as his eye acclimates to the big leagues, and he could hit a little more. .380 is reasonable. .380 with elite defense. You think your boy can do that?

Typically, guys who don't command the strike zone don't get many strikes when they get to the Show. Is it possible Peraza will have that problem and have a significant adjustment period, or maybe never adjust?

I find it amusing that the guy who strikes out 10% of the time in the minors will likely continue at that pace, while the guy who strikes out 20% of the time will see that rise. You don't know that. You're just running your mouth.

Really didn't make any assumptions aside from Peterson and that's based off numbers from his entire professional career. Of course he could change, but changes that big don't happen very often.

And what does a Braves stealing 60 bags have to do with my assessment? Peraza's got speed and baserunning smarts. 2 very usable assets. He would be a 40+ swiper for us. If he isn't, fire the first base coach or Fredi cause they're not using the players we have right. Smith and Peraza should be 2 guys who swipe 40+ bases a year and if they aren't, the coaches have to go.

No stat says Peterson's defense is elite because no stat has enough data. A relatively paltry 554 innings in his career played at 2B. In that sample a whole lot of noise can happen. As far as Peraza goes. I've read reports that say he's scary good. At SS and 2B.

Peraza won't walk like Peterson, I pretty clearly said that. Your assessment on command of the strikezone is likely flawed though. Just because Peraza doesn't walk doesn't mean he doesn't have command of the zone. Simmons wqould be my comp. He doens't swing a ton. He just makes contact when he swings. That's what Peraza looks to be as a hitter. He looks the type who will swing at anything he can hit. Whether it's a good pitch to hit or not. I see offensively Peraza being like simmons but with less power and much more speed.

And it's less of an assumption and more of an observation as far as K rates. Minor league guys who usually strike out at 20+% are usually striking out by swinging at bad pitches. When they're in the bigs facing guys who have nasty stuff and control of that stuff and facing specialty relievers and so on so forth, they're likely to have a raise. I'll pick on Freddie Freeman. Freeman has struck out 21% of the time in the majors. In the minors he struck out 14.9. Jason in the majros has struck out 19.3% in the minors 14.1. Chipper in the majors struck out 13.3% of the time, in the minors 12.2. BJ Upton has struck out 26.4% of the time, in the minors 19.7.

I didn't make a baseless assumption. I've done a ton of research on minor league and major league K rate correlation. IN general the lower your minor league K rate, the lower your major league K rate and as it goes up there's usually an exponential growth in the majors because it's indicative. In the last decade the 3 worst stiker outers have been Tyler Flowers, Chris Carter and El Juan Chubbard, all striking out around 34% of the time. None of them struck out over 24% in the minors. ALl were right atound 23%.

 

[zitothebrave]

OPS is too power dependent if you ask me. I think OBP is much more important than SLG.

Either way, the reason I am looking at average is because there are limited times over the course of a game where you are going to get a runner in scoring position and I believe the more often you get hits in those positions the better. I am just trying to corrleate those teams that take an approach of not strikingout and succeeding with hits when the situation presents itself. I am actually surprised that my theory held true over the course of 4 seasons.

OPS is a stat thatt no respectable stat fan uses anymore.

OBP is flawed because it treats a homer the same as a walk. How can you say it's better than OPS? OPS is flawed but at least it paints an OK picture. I'd rather have a guy who goes 1/3 with a homer every hit than a guy who goes 0-0 with 3 walks. OPS says the 1/3 guys is a superior player as do most other metrics. OBP says he's 1/3 of the player.