"The Kimbrel Rule"

[clvclv]

Pretty funny read on how Kimbrel breaks the arbitration model MLBTR uses. NO closer - including Papelbon - has ever approached the video game numbers he's put up. There literally are no comps. The author actually admits that if some freak happening occurred and Craig got what he "deserves" in arbitration this year that the number would be north of $10 million.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-breakdown-craig-kimbrel.html

"In just over three years on the baseball diamond as a member of the Atlanta Braves, Craig Kimbrel has accomplished a wide variety of feats. He has led the National League in saves for three years in a row, with 139 saves in his young career. Kimbrel struck out a fantastic 381 hitters, which amounts to 43 percent of all hitters faced (more than twice the league average). He has also kept runs off the board like no one else, allowing a microscopic 1.39 ERA in his 227 1/3 innings pitched. Now, we can add one more trophy to his case here at MLB Trade Rumors: he is the namesake of the Kimbrel Rule, as well as the first player whose arbitration salary projection has ever been affected by it. Why do we need this Kimbrel Rule? Quite simply, Kimbrel broke my arbitration model."

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

What Ive been saying for several weeks now. he may well break the bank if his arbitration goes well in his favor. Could easily become untradeable.

 

[Enscheff]

No chance. The large market teams wouldn't even blink at paying Kimbrel $7M, $10M and $13M over the next 3 years. They could simply non-tender him if he got hurt, and those salaries wouldn't even phase them.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

But what happens IF the arb awards are 10-15-20M???????

 

[zitothebrave]

But what happens IF the arb awards are 10-15-20M???????

Aren't the Yankees paying Rivera like 16 million?

I highly doubt kimbrel breaks arbitration. He didn't do things like win a cy or mvp league, or post season. Only thing he has is a rolaids relief man and that award means nothing. If kimbrel makes 10 the arbitrator did not do his job.

 

[DaneHill]

I'd actually like to hear the Braves' side of the argument. I mean, what could they possibly come up with as an argument against Kimbrel? "Well, your Arbitrationess, he didn't sell as many jerseys as we'd hoped.... No wait, yes he did. Dammit."

 

[zitothebrave]

I'd actually like to hear the Braves' side of the argument. I mean, what could they possibly come up with as an argument against Kimbrel? "Well, your Arbitrationess, he didn't sell as many jerseys as we'd hoped.... No wait, yes he did. Dammit."

Point to arbitration numbers of every closer ever

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Aren't the Yankees paying Rivera like 16 million?

I highly doubt kimbrel breaks arbitration. He didn't do things like win a cy or mvp league, or post season. Only thing he has is a rolaids relief man and that award means nothing. If kimbrel makes 10 the arbitrator did not do his job.

You are talking about an Iconic figure who had something like 17 years to build that figure. And Papelbon and Soriano. All getting big paychecks and none has the the record of Kimbrel the past 3 years. The last 2 IIRC are what the arbitrator will consider.

 

[Enscheff]

Kimbrel will most likely make $1M-$2M more than Pap did in his first round of arb, so $7M-$8M next year. MLBTR did a pretty good job spelling it out.

 

[nsacpi]

Also you can look at very valuable starting pitchers as a comp. Lincecum won the Cy Young in 2008 and 2009. He and the Giants agreed on $8M in 2010 (I think he was a Super 2) and $11M in 2011.

David Price and the Rays agreed on $10.1M after he won the Cy Young. That suggests to me that Kimbrel is very unlikely to get over $10 M this go around.

If he continues pitching near his established standards I think he'll get 7.5M in 2014, 10.5M in 2015 and 13.5M in 2016.

Kimbrel is about a 3 WAR per season pitcher, and there is agreement WAR understates the value of closers. At the going market rate of 5M/win, anything under 15M is a bargain for Kimbrel.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

If Kimbrel is still a Brave in February then we will see what he gets but I keep recalling how you (nsacpi) are one of the ones who keep harping about teh new TV money and how prices are going to rise.

 

[nsacpi]

If Kimbrel is still a Brave in February then we will see what he gets but I keep recalling how you (nsacpi) are one of the ones who keep harping about teh new TV money and how prices are going to rise.

28M per team/per year increase in national tv revenues.

Keep in mind though that the arbitration process is backward looking. It looks at arbitration and contract deals made in recent years for similar players as the relevant precedent. So it tends to lag inflation in the "free market." Eventually though higher inflation in free agent salaries will affect arbitration awards as well.

 

[Enscheff]

The new TV money is probably already leaking into current extensions and FA contracts.

 

[Dalyn]

I'd actually like to hear the Braves' side of the argument. I mean, what could they possibly come up with as an argument against Kimbrel? "Well, your Arbitrationess, he didn't sell as many jerseys as we'd hoped.... No wait, yes he did. Dammit."

"He can't pitch two innings."

 

[nsacpi]

The new TV money is probably already leaking into current extensions and FA contracts.

I thought some teams starting spending it last off-season. KC and the Indians to cite two.

 

[goldfly]

I'd actually like to hear the Braves' side of the argument. I mean, what could they possibly come up with as an argument against Kimbrel? "Well, your Arbitrationess, he didn't sell as many jerseys as we'd hoped.... No wait, yes he did. Dammit."

depends how dirty you want to get on the case imo

thus why you don't ever really want to go to the hearing

 

[Dunit24]

I dont care. Kimbrel is worth every single penny, and he wouldnt become untradeable. Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers would be all over him.

 

[zitothebrave]

28M per team/per year increase in national tv revenues.

Keep in mind though that the arbitration process is backward looking. It looks at arbitration and contract deals made in recent years for similar players as the relevant precedent. So it tends to lag inflation in the "free market." Eventually though higher inflation in free agent salaries will affect arbitration awards as well.

Actually the arbitrator is not supposed to make his judgement. I mean they can let that bleed but it's heavily based on years of service, so you wouldn't compare Kimbrel's arb 1 to Papelbon's FA contract.

 

[nsacpi]

Actually the arbitrator is not supposed to make his judgement. I mean they can let that bleed but it's heavily based on years of service, so you wouldn't compare Kimbrel's arb 1 to Papelbon's FA contract.

They are supposed to use the salaries of players with similar service time (plus or minus one year relative to the player in question). In the case of Kimbrel, they would look at recent deals for Super 2s, players with three years of service time, and players with four years of service time.

 

[chipchildress]

"He can't pitch two innings."

wren probably told fredi not to use him two innings since he had to figure out how to pay for those absurdly awful free agent contacts he has.

the cards put their big money in matt holiday. the sox put big money into david ortiz. the braves put their big contracts into dan uggla and bj upton.

i'm going to be sick.