Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I dont think it's over if they take a FG there. But obviously they should have.
REAL FOOTBALL Thread
- Thread starter zitothebrave
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I dont think it's over if they take a FG there. But obviously they should have.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I know going for it is his schtick so it’s hard to hold it against him. I just think getting some points and making the 49ers return a kick would have helped settle his team down. Having watched several playoff meltdowns in my lifetime, I believe in momentum and fear win probability like the plague.
sturg33
I
You might be right
But when youre going against a juggernaut favorite, you need points, in my opinion
Luckily for SF, the lions didn't execute. The 49ers are very lucky
A good data person understands that there are unquantifiable things in the universe that at the present time are not able to be measured. The game would have been close to over if they kicked that FG on the first 4th down attempt.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
How's it a low IQ move? Legit I understand the math aspect to it. But first off 75% success for a 45 yard field goal is meh, Badgley for his career is 77% from 40-49, Last 2 years he's been at around 82%.
Essentially you're saying you're going to take a coin flip to extend a drive that still could end in a field goal
Success rates against a generic defense as well is how I believe the numbers are crunched. Niners defense was playing like crap but it’s still the Niners defense. Success rates on FGs are totally dependent on the kicker.
It’s an awful decision at that point in the game.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
It's also never a loss to match your opponent when you have a lead. It's like if you're winning 4-0 in baseball and concede a run, putting up a run is a huge for keeping the winning momentum going instead of feeling pressure.
sturg33
I
I have a few points...
1. Badgley is OK.. he's much better from shorter distance than long
2. Campbell is aggressive and it's been a huge benefit
3. I would rather a coach who appreciates the math than a coach who is scared of it
The reality is the lions are half as talented as SF, but can beat them because we can outsmart them. That was clear in the scheme. And I'm fine with the coaches doing what theyve done all year. If Reynolds catches the ball, id bet we win the game.
Luckily I'm not low IQ. So I understand that an execution error was the difference, not a strategic one
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I mean I just posted his stats.
It's fine to gamble on odds when you're tight or losing. But when you're up by 14 and have a good shot of getting a 3 score lead.
At the very least, pound it with Montgomery.
Success rate on pass plays against the Niners is slightly different than an average against all fourth downs against all teams.
You’d think an nfl coach in a big spot would understand that.
sturg33
I
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So if you’ve got some big data issues you need to solve I can design some awesome data models for you like I do for the wealth management space for firms that manage anywhere from 1B to 70B in client assets.
Happy to validate to any normal people that is curious how it’s done.
Or if you want some advice for the work you’re currently doing I’d love to help and show you how awesome the Microsoft solutions can be.
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sturg33
I
LOL math guy
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Montgomery up til that point had only had 2 rushes under 5 yards. One for none and one for 1 which was a touchdown. Calling a pass seems stupid unless you have a killer pass play. Andy Reid has some of those dialed up.
The risk outweighed the reward by far and your point was great in that you could have likely ended with a FG anyway (albeit with more time taken off the clock)