zbhargrove
Well-known member
He was on my fantasy team last year… he was a far cry from “pretty terrific” before his injury.
REAL FOOTBALL Thread
- Thread starter zitothebrave
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He was on my fantasy team last year… he was a far cry from “pretty terrific” before his injury.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Purdy, Brees, Dak, Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Cousins, Lamar, Jimmy G, Hurts, etc.
Many teams have gotten multiple year starters from later picks. Odds are you won't get a QB there, but it happens.
Look at you with Purdy off the tip of your tongue now!
striker42
Well-known member
It can happen but the odds are longer which makes the options worse. Odds are if the Falcons are sitting in the second half of the first round, they're not getting a QB they really like. As great as Purdy is doing, the 49ers probably weren't thinking he was a starter when they drafted him. They passed over him multiple times.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Not sure I’d call Brees and Rodgers “later picks.” Rodgers was first round and Brees was the first pick of the second round. Jackson was a first rounder too. You can’t call those late picks.
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zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The prompt was the falcons picking later in the first. Most mocks have us sitting around 21 assuming we win the division, that's before any of the guys you and I mentioned went in the draft.
I could have gone with QBs taken outside of top 10 because a trade up from 20 to 11 isn't out of the question, then you can add other QBs to that list Watson, Jones, and Fields. Though those 3 are multiple year starters I wouldn't hang my hat on.
striker42
Well-known member
You can get a star at any point in the draft. But you get fewer and fewer and the odds get longer and longer the farther down you go. Odds are if the Falcons pick 21, there won't be any elite QB prospects on the board. They could get lucky with a non-elite prospect but if they go QB at 21 then the odds are far longer on whoever they pick panning out than Caleb Williams or Drake Maye panning out.
Bottom line is the Falcons are in a far worse position trying to get a franchise QB if they pick at 21 than if they tanked and picked in the top 5.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Certainly. statistically speaking you're more likely to get a good QB in the top 5 than elsewhere. But also statistically only one or 2 QBs per draft wind up really shaking out. Ignore 2022 and of course 2023 as they're newer.
2021 - Lawrence looks legit. WIlson looks like ****, Trey is prboably cooked. Fields best case scenario is a poor man's Cam Newton. aside from that it looks bad. 1 of the top 3 picks and if you basically count fields as a top 10, 1 of the top 10 picks succeeded.
2020 - Burrow looks legit, Tua will be great if he's healthy, Herbert looks great. Love could be legit he looks pretty good. Jalen Hurts will be legit if he's healthy.
2019 - Honestly, the best QB in this draft could be Gardner Minshew, could be maybe the best from that draft class. Kyler is still a huge question. But yeah.
2018 - Baker busts (decent but not number 1) Darnold is a real bust, Allen is legit, Rosen was a bust, Lamar is legit.
2017 - Mitch was a huge bust, Mahomes and Deshaun are legit (deshaun obviously has the lost years issue) both would be attainable by trade up.
Sure Caleb and Maye could be the best QBs from their draft class.
But who's say that someone like Bo Nix, JJ McCarthy, Riley Leonard or Michael Penix won't be legit. Again, Baltimore got an MVP at the end of the first, eagles got a franchise QB in the second round. etc. We don't need a Payton Manning sure it's nice.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
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Carter is so legit. Can't believe the Eagles lucked into him.
Carter is so legit. Can't believe the Eagles lucked into him.
Since when is Kyler is a bust?
I don't think people understand just how good he was in 2020 and 2021. 4800 total yards and 37 TDs in 2020. For reference, that is considerably better than last year Jalen Hurts last year, who many thought should have won MVP.
He followed that up in 2021 with 4200 total yards and 29 total TDs in only 14 games.
Then last year, through 9 games he was a little off pace of his previous years, but was still very good: On track for another 4700 total yards, but only pacing for 26 total TDs (per 17 game season).
The only real concern with Murray is his health, as he'll have missed about 16 games over the prior 3 seasons once he gets back this year.
JJ McCarthy is wonder bread. Vanilla. Kenny Pickett 2.0, imo.
Bo Nix seems like a system QB to me. Was awful at Auburn. Played awful vs UGA last year (granted they had an elite defense). I would stay away.
Michael Penix is a good athlete, but he's a little older for a QB prospect.
Riley Leonard reminds me too much of Daniel Jones
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
There's more than that that's a concern about Kyler. There's concern with work ethic, motivation, etc. The reason his Arizona extension had the requirement to watch film was because he was playing CoD instead of watching film. There's lots of concerns. He could be great, but he could also just be another RG3 type of bust.
And yet he was playing at MVP like levels.
RG3 was a bust because Washington ruined him in 1 game.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I don't watch the Falcons every game so I don't know specifically how good Pitts is at each facet of the game but the key in my opinion to being worth a top 10 pick as a TE is how good they block. If they can be an elite blocking TE as well as a top tier receiver they are absolutely worth a top 10 pick. An elite receiving TE who can't block ala Jimmy Graham isn't. If they would be happy making top end TE money that would help but when you have a big WR masquerading as a WR who then also wants WR money in FA they aren't worth top 10 picks. Saints went through this with Jimmy Graham. They either had to play 10 vs 11 on running plays or just telegraph they were passing the ball by only using him for pass plays.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I have to admit I was wrong as wrong gets on Carter. Still not sure I would give him a big contract. I would take his cheap years then sell him for a ton of picks and let someone else pay him top dollar.
striker42
Well-known member
I went back and rewatched a good bit of the Falcons game watching Ridder specifically. Even Sunday he was holding onto the ball way too long, the difference was the o-line was giving him more time than they did in London. Ridder has to be able to go through his progressions quicker.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Ridder's pocket time of 2.3 seconds is below average.
I don't disagree that he needs to improve. There's always room for growth, but he's not like Mahomes. Who holds the ball to the last second.
I don't disagree that he needs to improve. There's always room for growth, but he's not like Mahomes. Who holds the ball to the last second.
No TE is worth a Top 10 pick. In the last 30 years, there have plenty of TEs picked in the Top 20. Only 1 of them was truly elite, and that was the GOAT Tony G. Maybe you could argue Vernon Davis, but he was never really elite aside from maybe 1 or 2 seasons. The rest of the time, we was more just merely good/above average. Shockey was really good early in his career, but production really fell off a cliff around his 27th Bday.
In short, never draft a TE in the Top 20 unless it a super weak draft class at the 4 most valuable draft positions (QB, Edge, OL, and WR), the TE is also a legit top end talent, and you can't trade back to get more picks. A good example would be the 2022 draft. There was only about 12 or so players graded as having 1st round talent, with none of them QBs. A freak athlete TE would make sense in that scenario.
striker42
Well-known member
Ridder's pocket time is skewed by the large number of short, super quick passes he does. Basically long handoffs. He's in the bottom 10 in average intended air yards. When he's asked to drop back and go through his progressions, he's painfully slow.
Ridder being slow going through his progressions isn't a secret. It was one of the main knocks against him along with a slow release and downfield inaccuracy. Being slow going through progressions is also a super difficult thing to fix.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I'm not attempting to defend Ridder, I think he's not it. But I think Atlanta has to find out a way to win with him.