Rosy but Not Unrealistic Scenario For 2017
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Kudos on not reading any post in the thread.
Read all of it and responded to the OP. Thanks.
The Pirates are going to offer $16.5 million for a year of Cervelli? Now I have to say I find that thought pretty comical. McCutchen gets a $1 million raise in 2017, Josh Harrison gets a $2.5 million raise, Starling Marte gets a $2 million raise, Gerritt Cole will get a huge arbitration raise, and even though Melancon's contract expires, they'll be left without a Closer. Where on earth will they come up with the cash to give Cervelli a $13 million raise???.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The Pirates have shown a willingness to make QO's for marginal cases. They offered one to Francisco Liriano a couple years ago when the QO stood at 15.3M. They also offered one to Russell Martin that year, although I think there was less of a chance he would accept it. The Pirates are one of the smarter organizations around. They understand the importance of managing risk and how a one-year deal contributes to that.
MLBTR is pegging Cervelli's next contract to be in the 4/60 range with a 5th year being possible. So yes, the Pirates will undoubtedly offer him a QO (barring injury or a something else disastrous happening to him) knowing full well he will reject it.
I swear, you have some of the worst understanding of the financial aspects of baseball, so why do you continue to chime in on such topics?
Thanks!!! Glad to know you're a genius!!! Maybe you should be running a team with your incomparable knowledge.
When he accepts like Wieters did and completely locks them up financially, I'm sure they'll be glad to know you thought it was a great idea as well.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A one year deal is much less likely to be crippling than a long-term one. Most teams are happy to absorb a slightly higher AAV on shorter terms.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
Assuming Cervelli finishes the season strong he will have put together back to back strong seasons. No doubt some team will offer him 15 mil/yr for 4 or 5 years. Wieters would be doing well to get 10 mil/yr now. It made sense for Wieters to accept a QO. Makes no sense for Cervelli to. The Pirates will roll the dice hoping to get a pick back for him leaving.
An awfully sunny outlook for someone who's put together one good season one month into his second full year as a starting Catcher, no? Not making fun of your thought process at all. Just pointing out that you're talking about a much less accomplished backstop than Wieters was going into this season who had his breakout year in 2015. You're also assuming he's able to stay healthy for the next 5 months while playing the toughest position in the game.
In hindsight, it's easy to say that Wieters would be hard-pressed to even get $10 million per TODAY. The point is that the Orioles made the same gamble last winter when they offered the QO to him that you're saying the Pirates should make with Cervelli next winter, and the Pirates can afford to make financial mistakes even less than Baltimore could. As someone else mentioned the Pirates' brass has consistently proven they're pretty bright, and I'd expect they'll look long and hard at how hamstrung the Orioles became when he accepted their offer last season. If Cervelli loves playing in Pittsburgh as much as Wieters loves playing in Baltimore and is willing to gamble on himself to stay one more year with a legitimate contender, the Pirates would have very little (if any) flexibility in 2017.
Don't get me wrong, I like Cervelli and think he and Flowers would make a really good tandem handling our young arms, but spending $15+ million a year on ANY over-30 Catcher is a HUGE gamble for a mid-market team like the Braves (who weren't willing to go slightly higher to keep one of their most-beloved Catchers ever in Mac). Adding a high draft pick to that cost can very easily blow up in your face pretty quickly.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
If i'm the pirates I'm offering the QO. Worst case you turn around and trade him after he accepts.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
On a one-year deal it is a manageable risk. The Pirates have $25M worth of expiring contracts coming off the books. Some of it will be eaten by raises, but they have the flexibility to retain Cervelli at the QO rate.
Not before June 1.
Again, I didn't say I don't see it as a completely "unwise" move - just pointing out that it's an awfully big gamble on a 30+ year old backstop. You're devoting over half of that $25 million to Cervelli plus another $5.5 million to cover the raises due McCutchen, Harrison, and Marte BEFORE arbitration and renewals. That means you have no shot at retaining Melancon and virtually no money to replace him (or money to spend in-season in the event you have any injuries).
Weiters and Cervelli aren't even in the same league as far as potential contract situations go. Weiters was a massive injury risk who was coming off a recent injuries and poor performance when he was healthy. Offering him a QO was a huge gamble. Cervelli doesn't have an injury risk any worse than a typical catcher, and just put up a .771 OPS in 130 games last year. He is currently putting up an .800 OPS. Weiters was hurt and bad...Cervelli has been none of those things.
I agree it is a gamble to give a 31 year old catcher $60M+, but again, your comparison to Mac misses the mark completely. Mac signed for 5/85 (and potentially 6/100 if his option vests), and the Braves had potential replacements at C in Gattis and CB. The Braves currently have zero potential options at C, and Cervelli will command significantly less than Mac got. It was nowhere near a "slightly higher" commitment to sign Mac. It was significantly more money to sign Mac.
You don't have to be a genius to figure all this out and understand it, but you do have to be able to look at facts and draw logical conclusions. Comparing the Weiters and Mac situations to Cervelli simply demonstrates poor logical reasoning skills.
My bad. I thought you said 'The team as constructed,' referring to our current roster.
If I'm so clueless, why not ignore me? Would save you huge chunks of your day. Unlike many of the fairweather fans around here, I'm going nowhere - sorry.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Braun's off to a hot start and theres speculation he could be moved. With the money owed he shouldnt cost a ton. Also a chance to get Lucroy involved. Blaine Boyer too since we are getting the band back together. Braun has 4 years guaranteed after this year which is perfect as he would come off the books rights as our prospects are hitting arbitration years. The Brewers pitching looks like a dumpster fire so I could see them wanting some of our upper level starters. Add Strasburg to the top of the rotation and a few bullpen pieces and thats a team I'll go to war with.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Stark tweeted there were only 6 teams who were not on brains no trade list. We can't get him without him agreeing
Awww come on now. Some folks around here have guaranteed us that the Braves will never spend money on "Aces" or take on contracts like that, so you just KNOW you're wasting your time and will be called an idiot for proposing such rubbish - don't you?!?!?