Shelby Miller

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NinersSBChamps

<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
No reason or rumors I have heard to think this, but is Shelby Miller safe? I think everyone on the Braves is available. I could see Boston calling the Braves if they miss out on Price and Greinke since they need an ace. Like I said I don't have any reason to believe this, but just have a hunch that Shelby could be gone. It's clear the people attempting to run the show hate good baseball players.
 
After the season he had, he would bring a HAUL and I would think anyone that could bring such talent back would be listened on
 
He should be the anchor of our staff going forward, but if somebody offered the moon I'd have to do it. You can't trade him and Teheran both but one of them you can for some offense.
 
Could be interesting, but i dont think we move Miller. Just dont have the vibe as I do with Teheran, Markakis, Maybin, etc.

But it would be a good fit for someone like Baltimore.....they need SP and OF help....send them Miller and Markakis....only question is does Baltimore have the talent to send back

Or I would look to Houston, Miller and Freeman....

Maybe something along the lines of:

Carter
A.J. Reed (hit .340 with 34 homers in 135 games this season, at first base, I think this was his first year?)
Michael Feliz
Francis Martez
 
bravesfanMatt said:
what gives you reason to think it was a fluke? just curious.
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His peripherals don't line up with his performance. His career xFIP is 4.08, and last year he was 4.07. In other words, he basically pitched as well last year as he has his entire career, which simply isn't as good as 3.02 ERA would indicate.

His k & bb numbers improved, which is good. His hr/9 was astronomically low last year, which is simply unlikely to continue. Additionally, after we lose Simmons, all of our pitchers are going to look worse next year (Milelr posted the highest GB % of his career last year... Simmons is important to him)

I definitely think he improved last year... but I don't expect him to put up a season like that again. So we should maximize that trade value if we can
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Could be interesting, but i dont think we move Miller. Just dont have the vibe as I do with Teheran, Markakis, Maybin, etc.

But it would be a good fit for someone like Baltimore.....they need SP and OF help....send them Miller and Markakis....only question is does Baltimore have the talent to send back
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Not sure they do. their top two are pitchers with Bundy recovering from TJS. I think they have a B- catching prospect who is young.. but for Julio, I would want a better haul.
 
sturg33 said:
His peripherals don't line up with his performance. His career xFIP is 4.08, and last year he was 4.07. In other words, he basically pitched as well last year as he has his entire career, which simply isn't as good as 3.02 ERA would indicate.

His k & bb numbers improved, which is good. His hr/9 was astronomically low last year, which is simply unlikely to continue. Additionally, after we lose Simmons, all of our pitchers are going to look worse next year (Milelr posted the highest GB % of his career last year... Simmons is important to him)

I definitely think he improved last year... but I don't expect him to put up a season like that again. So we should maximize that trade value if we can
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are you comparing minor league numbers.. because what I see is a 2013 season where he posted a 3.06 ERA and very similar numbers to this year. 2014 was more of an outlier IMO. he struggled early in the year and had a good second half to bring his numbers down to career norms. much like Julio this year. He seems like a very solid #2 guy who will go 200 innings. Might flirt with Ace type status as he develops.
 
sturg33 said:
His peripherals don't line up with his performance. His career xFIP is 4.08, and last year he was 4.07. In other words, he basically pitched as well last year as he has his entire career, which simply isn't as good as 3.02 ERA would indicate.

His k & bb numbers improved, which is good. His hr/9 was astronomically low last year, which is simply unlikely to continue. Additionally, after we lose Simmons, all of our pitchers are going to look worse next year (Milelr posted the highest GB % of his career last year... Simmons is important to him)

I definitely think he improved last year... but I don't expect him to put up a season like that again. So we should maximize that trade value if we can
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There is not enough data to suggest that the average is relevant. He's had three full seasons, two of which have been really good. As of right now the down year is the outlier, although that's certainly subject to change.

At this point I'm fine with them trading anybody if the package coming back is good enough. Especially if there is pitching coming back, because you can never have enough pitchers. Especially if they're really young and/or have already blown out the elbow a time or two.
 
Chico said:
I don't see us trading Shelby. I'd be on board with locking him up.
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Given the strength of the FA class (SP) I think if you get a good enough return for Miller and/or Teheran you move both. You can always turn around and sign a FA or two to replace them. I think that's how you maximize the value of the time at hand.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Given the strength of the FA class (SP) I think if you get a good enough return for Miller and/or Teheran you move both. You can always turn around and sign a FA or two to replace them. I think that's how you maximize the value of the time at hand.
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given the strength of the FA class, I don't see how you can get maximum value for either of them unless some of those guys are already off the market. sure both are cost controlled vs. a FA demanding a big payday.. but I think there are only a small number of teams that would work for a trade regarding Julio/Miller.

I too am open to trading one of those since we have great depth at the pitching spot. Just would like to see a good return for them. I wonder if waiting until the deadline would be a better move if you are thinking about trading them. more teams become desperate around July 25th...
 
bravesfanMatt said:
given the strength of the FA class, I don't see how you can get maximum value for either of them unless some of those guys are already off the market. sure both are cost controlled vs. a FA demanding a big payday.. but I think there are only a small number of teams that would work for a trade regarding Julio/Miller.

I too am open to trading one of those since we have great depth at the pitching spot. Just would like to see a good return for them. I wonder if waiting until the deadline would be a better move if you are thinking about trading them. more teams become desperate around July 25th...
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You have to target the teams with limited payroll flexibility (Pitt, Cleveland, Minn, etc) and/or target teams where FA pitchers don't want to sign (Colorado, Milwaukee, Cincy, etc)

If I didn't get the value that I was looking for, I would still sign FA pitching and look to trade Miller and/or Teheran at the dealine.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
You have to target the teams with limited payroll flexibility (Pitt, Cleveland, Minn, etc) and/or target teams where FA pitchers don't want to sign (Colorado, Milwaukee, Cincy, etc)

If I didn't get the value that I was looking for, I would still sign FA pitching and look to trade Miller and/or Teheran at the dealine.
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which is what I meant by small number of teams. I think I would rather see how this half season plays out with the group we have together. Then put everyone and everything on the market depending on how they perform. I just think it would be wise to see how Folty/Wisler/Manban are doing in the bigs and how Newcomb/Jenkins/Sims/Touki/.... are progressing in the Minors before you start dumping pitchers.

I wonder what comes of guys like Weber and Williams.. both had moderate success but neither have much value or future plans in our organization. spring invite/minor leagues to build value. or just a throw in in a trade to get max value.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
are you comparing minor league numbers.. because what I see is a 2013 season where he posted a 3.06 ERA and very similar numbers to this year. 2014 was more of an outlier IMO. he struggled early in the year and had a good second half to bring his numbers down to career norms. much like Julio this year. He seems like a very solid #2 guy who will go 200 innings. Might flirt with Ace type status as he develops.
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No - only looking at Major League numbers.

Miller benefited from an amazingly low HR rate. That's not likely to continue.

Like I said, his xFIP last year was 4.08. If you don't know, xFIP measures the expected performance independent of the defense. So it looks at a pitchers strikeouts, walks, HBP, and flyouts. It assumes a league average defense and a league average HR rate.

Because Miller benefited from an incredibly low HR rate, as well as the best defensive player in all of baseball, his actual numbers came in well below his expected performance. I don't think we'll see that HR rate again, and as you know, Simmons is now gone. As of this moment, our IF defense looks to be terrible. And our OF defense probably worse.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I wonder what comes of guys like Weber and Williams.. both had moderate success but neither have much value or future plans in our organization. spring invite/minor leagues to build value. or just a throw in in a trade to get max value.
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I think you use them as "added value" in any trades this offseason if needed. I just don't see either as long term mainstays in the Braves rotation but could be short term #5's for some teams out there.
 
I am not advocating trading Shelby, but he seems sort of wasted on this team right now. I understand he's under control, but all signs point to not fielding a competent team for at least one more season. Leaving Shelby to essentially have another wasted year in 2016.
 
sturg33 said:
No - only looking at Major League numbers.

Miller benefited from an amazingly low HR rate. That's not likely to continue.

Like I said, his xFIP last year was 4.08. If you don't know, xFIP measures the expected performance independent of the defense. So it looks at a pitchers strikeouts, walks, HBP, and flyouts. It assumes a league average defense and a league average HR rate.

Because Miller benefited from an incredibly low HR rate, as well as the best defensive player in all of baseball, his actual numbers came in well below his expected performance. I don't think we'll see that HR rate again, and as you know, Simmons is now gone. As of this moment, our IF defense looks to be terrible. And our OF defense probably worse.
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I think Aybar and Jace are both pretty good defensive players. I also think Freeman is above average defensively even if the "metrics" disagree
 
Miller will probably be traded next offseason instead. Strausburg is the only FA pitcher available that's worth a crap so I can see the FO thinking they can cash in next offseason. And it'll give us a better look at where our pitchers are at and how far off they are. I do think we should sign one really good starter this offseason to lessen the blow of trading pitching next offseason.
 
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