Shelby Miller

I'd keep him/extend him but depends what offers are out there.

We cant trade every single good player we have.
 
Heyward said:
I'd keep him/extend him but depends what offers are out there.

We cant trade every single good player we have.
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This is true however there are 2 things to consider. Miller out pitched his peripherals this past season. You can argue he is going to be that guy going forward and there are pitchers that do that. But the odds are his ERA gets closer to his FIP in 2016 especially after losing Simmons. And the Braves have been burned in the past for not selling high on these guys when they had the chance (Jurrjens and Horacio).

Also you have to look at the time table the Braves realistically want to contend. I feel 2017 has been pushed back. How far remains to be seen but if the Braves aren't looking to contend in the next 3 years there should be two choices with Miller. Try and extend him so you will have him around for when you are looking to contend or trade him this offseason while his stock is high and he has enough pre-FA years left to warrant a good haul.
 
thewupk said:
This is true however there are 2 things to consider. Miller out pitched his peripherals this past season. You can argue he is going to be that guy going forward and there are pitchers that do that. But the odds are his ERA gets closer to his FIP in 2016 especially after losing Simmons. And the Braves have been burned in the past for not selling high on these guys when they had the chance (Jurrjens and Horacio).

Also you have to look at the time table the Braves realistically want to contend. I feel 2017 has been pushed back. How far remains to be seen but if the Braves aren't looking to contend in the next 3 years there should be two choices with Miller. Try and extend him so you will have him around for when you are looking to contend or trade him this offseason while his stock is high and he has enough pre-FA years left to warrant a good haul.
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The last bit is exactly where I am. He's gonna spend his arb years like a 21st-century Rick Mahler or Zane Smith--mainstay pitchers on crap teams. MAYBE we field a contender in his last season. Extent or trade.

"So then, because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spit thee from my mouth."
 
Heyward said:
I'd keep him/extend him but depends what offers are out there.

We cant trade every single good player we have.
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Well there really aren't many good players on this roster left. Miller and Freeman. Throw in Markakis and that's it.
 
I trade him. As long as our return is good he'd be gone. I wouldn't trade Julio. He's coming off a terrible year i'd wait to hope his value rebounds to last offseason's levels.
 
thewupk said:
This is true however there are 2 things to consider. Miller out pitched his peripherals this past season. You can argue he is going to be that guy going forward and there are pitchers that do that. But the odds are his ERA gets closer to his FIP in 2016 especially after losing Simmons. And the Braves have been burned in the past for not selling high on these guys when they had the chance (Jurrjens and Horacio).

Also you have to look at the time table the Braves realistically want to contend. I feel 2017 has been pushed back. How far remains to be seen but if the Braves aren't looking to contend in the next 3 years there should be two choices with Miller. Try and extend him so you will have him around for when you are looking to contend or trade him this offseason while his stock is high and he has enough pre-FA years left to warrant a good haul.
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Depends on the return.

Need some kinda hitting in return.
 
Shelby has been up and down his whole MLB career and his stats really need context. Yeah he had a 3.06 ERA in 2013 and won 15 games but the Cardinals didnt use him in the playoffs. Same **** in 2014. If we made the playoffs this year I bet Fredi's dumbass would have started him game 1 despite his bad second half. The Cardinals would have left him off the roster again in 2015 if he was a Cardinal. Maybe thats why they win in October. I bet they shure wouldnt send Glavine out in an elimination playoff game when he pitched like Dan Kolb his previous start in the series.
 
I would trade him now but I think the Braves will wait for midseason. They talked about how the SS market being extremely weak influenced moving Andrelton and there is a lot of pitching available in the free agent market this year. With the bad free agent market next year there shouldnt be as many good options to trade for at the trade deadline and Shelby would probably be the best pitcher available.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Shelby has been up and down his whole MLB career and his stats really need context. Yeah he had a 3.06 ERA in 2013 and won 15 games but the Cardinals didnt use him in the playoffs. Same **** in 2014. If we made the playoffs this year I bet Fredi's dumbass would have started him game 1 despite his bad second half. The Cardinals would have left him off the roster again in 2015 if he was a Cardinal. Maybe thats why they win in October. I bet they shure wouldnt send Glavine out in an elimination playoff game when he pitched like Dan Kolb his previous start in the series.
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Cueto was a train wreck in the second half, started game 2 of the World Series and pitched a shutout.

You have to trust the larger sample sizes.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I would trade him now but I think the Braves will wait for midseason. They talked about how the SS market being extremely weak influenced moving Andrelton and there is a lot of pitching available in the free agent market this year. With the bad free agent market next year there shouldnt be as many good options to trade for at the trade deadline and Shelby would probably be the best pitcher available.
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This is a good approach. We'd also have a MUCH better idea of which pitchers will be ready by then and we are not going to get good value on starting pitching with the amount of starters available.
 
Chico said:
This is a good approach. We'd also have a MUCH better idea of which pitchers will be ready by then and we are not going to get good value on starting pitching with the amount of starters available.
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The risk is that Shelby regresses. If that happens then you have nothing...
 
Chico said:
Or he has another good year, increases his value, and is a hot commodity.
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Or tears a labrum and is done for his career or needs TJ and is done for 18 months...

There are +/-

All I'm saying is that at this point for the Braves, if you can get good value now, you do it because the risk of waiting to try to get better value at the deadline is probably too high a risk to take.

And, here's the other thing: Let's say the Braves are sitting at 42-42 again, but it's clear to anyone with any baseball sense that its an unsustainable position and that it is under no circumstances a playoff team (just like last year), does the Braves FO still have the guts to pull a Miller trade at the deadline? Or do they just let the season play out, chips fall where they may, and miss the opportunity? Part of Millers value is he is under control for three more years and still inexpensive. Let's say that he is a 3 era pitcher again next year. In the 2016 offseason his value is likely somewhat less because the loss of a year of control and the addition of arbitration cost offset any value gained in showing a follow up year of being a 3 era pitcher.
 
The play on Miller all depends on whether or not the Braves add a couple impact bats this offseason.

If they somehow land a couple bats that are ready by 2017, then they should hold onto Miller.

If they acquire no bats, or acquire bats that won't be ready until after 2017, then they should trade Miller now. His value is to teams that want to add a TOR starter AND a position guy, and having Miller under control for pretty cheap will allow a contender to spend more on one of the expensive OF FAs currently available.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Or tears a labrum and is done for his career or needs TJ and is done for 18 months...

There are +/-

All I'm saying is that at this point for the Braves, if you can get good value now, you do it because the risk of waiting to try to get better value at the deadline is probably too high a risk to take.

And, here's the other thing: Let's say the Braves are sitting at 42-42 again, but it's clear to anyone with any baseball sense that its an unsustainable position and that it is under no circumstances a playoff team (just like last year), does the Braves FO still have the guts to pull a Miller trade at the deadline? Or do they just let the season play out, chips fall where they may, and miss the opportunity? Part of Millers value is he is under control for three more years and still inexpensive. Let's say that he is a 3 era pitcher again next year. In the 2016 offseason his value is likely somewhat less because the loss of a year of control and the addition of arbitration cost offset any value gained in showing a follow up year of being a 3 era pitcher.
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or three of our other pitchers go down with TJS.. or if and but were candy and nuts.

I understand what you are saying but trading players is like gambling. you have to take risks to get rewards. and if you wait until the deadline then a team will pay a very, very high premium to get a solid starter like Miller. Even if his ERA is 3.5ish. Even if it is 4ish.. Teams that think they can win this year will give up many prospects for a guy like that... and the team control is just money in the bag for them because it wouldn't be a rental player, but a quality starter they would have an additional 2 years. you are talking about a teams #1 or #2 prospect +++

also, Miller hasn't shown any history of injury so, I wouldn't put a high % on that happening.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
or three of our other pitchers go down with TJS.. or if and but were candy and nuts.

I understand what you are saying but trading players is like gambling. you have to take risks to get rewards. and if you wait until the deadline then a team will pay a very, very high premium to get a solid starter like Miller. Even if his ERA is 3.5ish. Even if it is 4ish.. Teams that think they can win this year will give up many prospects for a guy like that... and the team control is just money in the bag for them because it wouldn't be a rental player, but a quality starter they would have an additional 2 years. you are talking about a teams #1 or #2 prospect +++

also, Miller hasn't shown any history of injury so, I wouldn't put a high % on that happening.
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I certainly don't trade him UNLESS I get what I want now.

I think Miller to Colorado makes a lot of sense for both teams (not so much for Miller, but hey, he's getting paid). Colorado has in abundance what Atlanta needs and Colorado will likely never be able to just go and sign a FA equivalent to Miller because it's Colorado.

A Miller for McMahon (who is blocked at the ML level by Arenando), Dahl (who is blocked by Blackmon) and Nunez (who is blocked by a number of players including Murphy) would do it for me (and let's face it, Colorado always has bats). Atlanta gets Colorado's #3, #5 and #15 prospects for three years of control over a potential #1 starter. Atlanta gets one of the top 3rd base prospects in baseball to go with Ruiz and Riley which likely produces at least one good 3B some time in 2017 for the ML team. Atlanta gets a well thought of, toolsy, CF prospect who happens to be a home town boy who is high ceiling/high floor but has faced some injury setbacks. Atlanta gets a C who is described as: "Even though he hasn't been doing it long, Nunez is the best receiver in the Rockies system. He has very soft hands and is extremely agile behind the plate. He moves well from side to side and frames pitches very well, getting the highest praise for a backstop by being called "quiet." There isn't much quiet about his bat, though. He has a classic left-handed swing that reminds some in the organization of Carlos Gonzalez's. He's already made strides with his approach at the plate, giving him a chance to hit for average with some power." Which is just what the Braves need to handle young pitching as it continues to develop 3-5 years down the road.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I certainly don't trade him UNLESS I get what I want now.

I think Miller to Colorado makes a lot of sense for both teams (not so much for Miller, but hey, he's getting paid). Colorado has in abundance what Atlanta needs and Colorado will likely never be able to just go and sign a FA equivalent to Miller because it's Colorado.

A Miller for McMahon (who is blocked at the ML level by Arenando), Dahl (who is blocked by Blackmon) and Nunez (who is blocked by a number of players including Murphy) would do it for me (and let's face it, Colorado always has bats). Atlanta gets Colorado's #3, #5 and #15 prospects for three years of control over a potential #1 starter. Atlanta gets one of the top 3rd base prospects in baseball to go with Ruiz and Riley which likely produces at least one good 3B some time in 2017 for the ML team. Atlanta gets a well thought of, toolsy, CF prospect who happens to be a home town boy who is high ceiling/high floor but has faced some injury setbacks. Atlanta gets a C who is described as: "Even though he hasn't been doing it long, Nunez is the best receiver in the Rockies system. He has very soft hands and is extremely agile behind the plate. He moves well from side to side and frames pitches very well, getting the highest praise for a backstop by being called "quiet." There isn't much quiet about his bat, though. He has a classic left-handed swing that reminds some in the organization of Carlos Gonzalez's. He's already made strides with his approach at the plate, giving him a chance to hit for average with some power." Which is just what the Braves need to handle young pitching as it continues to develop 3-5 years down the road.
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I am definitely picking up what you are putting down. and I like the return for a position we are strong at. Just would have to see if the Roxs would go for something like that.
 
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