Shelby to AZ for E. Inciarte, A. Blair, and Dansby Swanson

http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/ba...erral&ecmp=ajc_social_twitter_2014_braves_sfp

I know it was mentioned yesterday how we got the prospects and saved a little cash. We ended up saving about $4mil in cash on this deal which leaves us ~$18mil....according to this article we are trying to decide if we want to go after signing a veteran SP, flexible infielder, corner outfielder and move Olivera back to third, lefty reliever.....sounds like there are a lot of options they are at least considering....

but it also mentions that if they don't spend the full $18mil some could be applied to the IFA this season....
 
bravesfanMatt said:
ultimately, if the Dbacks make a deep run for the next three years and Miller is a big part of it.. then it will be hard to argue that it was a bad trade no matter how great all these pieces turn out.
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I tend to despise the snarky group think that surrounds every transaction within the baseball media, but when unnamed baseball executives are declaring it the worst trade they have ever seen, it leads me to believe that those same baseball executives were willing to offer something substantially better than Shelby. That, coupled with Stewart's crazy post trade explanations where he's saying things like "Shelby was worth trading for player that is going to get paid $200m", makes you question the Diamondbacks' FO entirely.

Over time, all deals are seen through the lens of results over process, but process still and should matter.
 
Aaron Blair ‏@A_Blair19 37m37 minutes ago
With that being said, I am very eager and excited to get started with the @Braves! Looking forward to what 2016 has to offer! #chopchop
 
Coppy: "We’re looking at every possible alternative. It’s kind of like 7-11. We’re always open, even if we’re not always doing business."

Lmao
 
Heyward said:
So if one of our young pitchers turn out to be a Kershaw, Felix, Bumgarner, Price, etc type, we shouldnt sign them to big dollars?
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No, because trading 2-3 years of Price, Kershaw or Felix would bring a huge return...possibly the next Price, Kershaw or Felix. That's the whole point.

Those types of pitchers cost $30M+ ($35M+) per year, and a team with a middle market payroll of $120M can't afford to take the gamble of a $30M pitcher going down in flames with 3-4 years left on a mega deal. Your list can easily be countered with Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, and Lincecum.

As long as the pipe is constantly full of replacement arms, huge dollars shouldn't be committed to keeping any of them.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/ba...erral&ecmp=ajc_social_twitter_2014_braves_sfp

I know it was mentioned yesterday how we got the prospects and saved a little cash. We ended up saving about $4mil in cash on this deal which leaves us ~$18mil....according to this article we are trying to decide if we want to go after signing a veteran SP, flexible infielder, corner outfielder and move Olivera back to third, lefty reliever.....sounds like there are a lot of options they are at least considering....

but it also mentions that if they don't spend the full $18mil some could be applied to the IFA this season....
Click to expand...

I still think a 3/$45 million offer for Kazmir would be perfect. Lefty for the rotation capable of putting up similar numbers to Shelby (assuming he doesn't continue to make strides that make him an "Ace") that could mentor the young kids over the next couple of seasons who would also be a pretty good trade chip if they decided to move him at some point.

While I agree that the 2016 squad won't be substantially better than the Opening Day crowd from last year, there would still be reasons to expect incremental improvements...

Julio should be better

Kazmir could approximate Shelby's numbers other than his unbelievable first 8-10 starts.

Wisler should be a little better with experience and capable of posting numbers similar to what Wood did before he was traded

Blair should be an upgrade over Stults

Folty/Banuelos/Perez/Weber should be as good or better than Cahill was

A. J. is A. J. (Flowers will be better than Bethancourt)

Freddie is Freddie

Peterson should improve slightly

SS should be close to a wash with Aybar's offense cancelling out Simba's defense

Adonis is an upgrade over CJ (yeah, I said it)

Olivera is an upgrade over Gomes

Inciarte is a HUGE upgrade over EYJ, and a pretty good bounce from Cam even when he was hot

Markakis is Markakis

Grilli is Grilli

Johnson is Johnson

Vizcaino is a HUGE upgrade from Jaime

Withrow is a HUGE upgrade from Martin

Simmons will be a HUGE upgrade from Cunniff (as soon as he's ready)

The lefties won't be much improved as things stand now, but transitioning Banuelos and spending a couple million on EOF or Randy Choate sure would change that in a hurry

Don't get me wrong, I still think it's a 70-ish win team at best, but that would still be a pretty big improvement.
 
striker42 said:
Suppose you're starving. I come along. I have a case of canned food and an Xbox and am willing to sell you either one for $1,000. If you buy the food you're vastly overpaying for it. If you buy the Xbox, you're overpaying but it's not overpaying nearly as badly. Which is a better deal for you? The food.
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Well, to make this analogy work, there is a different kind of food being sold just down the street for $10. And no one else is offering you anywhere near $1,000 for the canned food. So I tell you I'm going to go buy the $10 food instead of paying you $1,000 for it. That way, I either get a different kind of food and save $990 to use elsewhere, or I get the canned food I want for far less than the $1,000 you're demanding.

That's the actual analogy we're working with here. There are other pitchers on the market, and no one else was likely offering us anywhere near what Arizona paid for Miller. So no, they didn't have to pay that. That's why it was a bad deal.

This deal was infinitely worse for Arizona than the Olivera deal was for us. It's a joke to even try to compare them.
 
emk418 said:
I agree but my point is they maybe overpaid in very good talent but remains to be seen if they gave up a true impact player. I'm without a doubt on the high end on Swanson but there are scouts that doubt how much of an impact he'll make offensively. Again, I'm on the high side with Swanson.

I just think this was all around a good trade for both given the state of each team.
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Just for the sake of fair mindedness, I think this is a point worth mentioning.

Swanson is a high-floor guy but not necessarily a high-ceiling one. He has a lot going for him, but he's not a prodigy.
 
Julio3000 said:
Just for the sake of fair mindedness, I think this is a point worth mentioning.

Swanson is a high-floor guy but not necessarily a high-ceiling one. He has a lot going for him, but he's not a prodigy.
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From most things I've read, he has a very high ceiling. Some scouts also were torn on how well Lindor would do offensively.
 
clvclv said:
I still think a 3/$45 million offer for Kazmir would be perfect. Lefty for the rotation capable of putting up similar numbers to Shelby (assuming he doesn't continue to make strides that make him an "Ace") that could mentor the young kids over the next couple of seasons who would also be a pretty good trade chip if they decided to move him at some point.

While I agree that the 2016 squad won't be substantially better than the Opening Day crowd from last year, there would still be reasons to expect incremental improvements...

Julio should be better
Kazmir could approximate Shelby's numbers other than his unbelievable first 8-10 starts.
Wisler should be a little better with experience and capable of posting numbers similar to what Wood did before he was traded
Blair should be an upgrade over Stults
Folty/Banuelos/Perez/Weber should be as good or better than Cahill was

A. J. is A. J. (Flowers will be better than Bethancourt)
Freddie is Freddie
Peterson should improve slightly
SS should be close to a wash with Aybar's offense cancelling out Simba's defense
Adonis is an upgrade over CJ (yeah, I said it)
Olivera is an upgrade over Gomes
Inciarte is a HUGE upgrade over EYJ, and a pretty good bounce from Cam even when he was hot
Markakis is Markakis

Grilli is Grilli
Johnson is Johnson
Vizcaino is a HUGE upgrade from Jaime
Withrow is a HUGE upgrade from Martin
Simmons will be a HUGE upgrade from Cunniff (as soon as he's ready)
The lefties won't be much improved as things stand now, but transitioning Banuelos and spending a couple million on EOF or Randy Choate sure would change that in a hurry

Don't get me wrong, I still think it's a 70-ish win team at best, but that would still be a pretty big improvement.
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Kazmir will cost a LOT more than 3/45.
 
The Don said:
Remember when Pelfrey and Kazmir were the next generation?
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Not at the same time. Kazmir was a few years before Pelfrey. Pelfrey was more in Hughes/Miller/Bailey, while Kazmir was

BTW I was rolling through old BA lists and reminding myself that TINSTAPP is true. If we look at 2007 when Pelfrey was at it's highest, The top 40 ranked players who were pitchers were

Matsuzaka - Some good, mostly meh
Hughes - Good season or 2 but mostley meh
Bailey - Pretty much all meh
Miller - Reliever
Lincecum - Dominant for a few years
Gallardo - Really strong and consistent.
Pelfrey - Meh
Garza - Some strong years, some weak ones.
Adam Miller - never reached the majors
Kershaw - Stud
Morales - Reliever
Elbert - Reliever
McGee - Reliever
Volstad - Pretty meh

So in that group you have probably 3 pitchers who wound up being really something, Lincecum, Gallardo, and Kershaw. And these were the cream of the crop that year.
 
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