Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
That's definitely where I've thought he'd end up all along.
Shelby to AZ for E. Inciarte, A. Blair, and Dansby Swanson
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
That's definitely where I've thought he'd end up all along.
Wow Don. 
Agreed...unless, again, the value others hold for Inciarte because he has proven himself outweighs your own value on him. Then you deal him, assuming you get relevant pieces back at key positions.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
That was like back in 2014.. how can you expect anyone to remember that far back..
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Certainly an option. I wouldn't get rid of either myself and instead ****can Markakis. Someone has to be willing to take him.
Then allocate his money and sign Jason. Put Inciarte at LF, Mallex in CF, and Jason in RF and catch all the fly balls!!!!!
Tapate50
Well-known member
#1: D’Backs Pay Ace Price for #3 Starter
Acquire: Shelby Miller
Cost: Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair
You knew this was coming. Not every trade that’s a big win for one side is definitely a big loss for the other, but in this deal, Arizona just got fleeced. In talking with people in the game in the aftermath of the trade, it became clear that there was a strong market for Inciarte, and the Diamondbacks could have turned him into a quality starting pitcher in something like a one-for-one trade had they pushed in that direction. Instead, their pursuit of Jose Fernandez apparently led them to believe that the Marlins ridiculous asking price set the price for acquiring a rotation upgrade, and the Braves took advantage of that perspective to rob them blind.
Miller is a quality pitcher, but the upgrade in the rotation only makes the team marginally better when you account for the downgrade in the outfield, leaving the organization in a position of surrendering two of their best assets for little actual gain. Swanson and Blair are not guaranteed to turn into anything, of course, but they had clear value to many teams around the league, and even if the D’Backs were set on trading them this winter, they could have gotten significantly more in return.
With Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, and A.J. Pollock around, the D’Backs have three outstanding players, and if they get enough support from their role players, they might make a run at the postseason. But that’s not the position you should find yourself in after surrendering a huge chunk of your organizational asset pool; the team would need to be in a much better position to capitalize on their short-term upgrades in order to justify the long-term costs. And even if they were in a better position, there still would have been numerous other paths that could have helped the team improve their big league roster this winter in more substantial ways. Unless Shelby Miller is on the verge of becoming a dominant #1 starter, this is the kind of deal may haunt the D’Backs for years to come.
Fangraphs worst deal of the offseason. And there are some real head scratchers in there.... I disagree with Shelby being a #3 also. Maybe on a loaded staff.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-transactions-of-the-2016-offseason/
Acquire: Shelby Miller
Cost: Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair
You knew this was coming. Not every trade that’s a big win for one side is definitely a big loss for the other, but in this deal, Arizona just got fleeced. In talking with people in the game in the aftermath of the trade, it became clear that there was a strong market for Inciarte, and the Diamondbacks could have turned him into a quality starting pitcher in something like a one-for-one trade had they pushed in that direction. Instead, their pursuit of Jose Fernandez apparently led them to believe that the Marlins ridiculous asking price set the price for acquiring a rotation upgrade, and the Braves took advantage of that perspective to rob them blind.
Miller is a quality pitcher, but the upgrade in the rotation only makes the team marginally better when you account for the downgrade in the outfield, leaving the organization in a position of surrendering two of their best assets for little actual gain. Swanson and Blair are not guaranteed to turn into anything, of course, but they had clear value to many teams around the league, and even if the D’Backs were set on trading them this winter, they could have gotten significantly more in return.
With Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, and A.J. Pollock around, the D’Backs have three outstanding players, and if they get enough support from their role players, they might make a run at the postseason. But that’s not the position you should find yourself in after surrendering a huge chunk of your organizational asset pool; the team would need to be in a much better position to capitalize on their short-term upgrades in order to justify the long-term costs. And even if they were in a better position, there still would have been numerous other paths that could have helped the team improve their big league roster this winter in more substantial ways. Unless Shelby Miller is on the verge of becoming a dominant #1 starter, this is the kind of deal may haunt the D’Backs for years to come.
Fangraphs worst deal of the offseason. And there are some real head scratchers in there.... I disagree with Shelby being a #3 also. Maybe on a loaded staff.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-transactions-of-the-2016-offseason/
striker42
Well-known member
That's pretty rough on the D-Backs. They have one of the best offenses in baseball but had a terrible pitching staff last year. With Grienke and Miller they now have a very good pitching staff and should win a lot of games. Miller slides in nicely as a number 2 starter behind Grienke and lets everyone else in the rotation slide down a spot too. So getting Miller made 4 spots in their rotation better.
Did they overpay? Absolutely! But it's not like they didn't get a big upgrade in return.
Did they overpay? Absolutely! But it's not like they didn't get a big upgrade in return.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I would agree with this. If I were a Dback fan, I would be pretty excited going into this season. they have about 2 to 3 year window to make this happen, so they went for broke.. My biggest concern would be bullpen.. Of course, I am not 100% familiar with their entire lineup, so there may be bigger ?... But yes they did over pay..
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A trade like the Shelby Miller trade obviously has a trading for the far future for the present and near future element. A couple questions come up.
1) Is there a discount factor large enough to justify it?
2) How does the team's position on the expected win curve for the present and near future affect that discount factor?
3) What is the team's current position on the expected win curve?
Each of these is an interesting question.
1) Is there a discount factor large enough to justify it?
2) How does the team's position on the expected win curve for the present and near future affect that discount factor?
3) What is the team's current position on the expected win curve?
Each of these is an interesting question.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I don't know about number three. I don't think he's an Ace, but he's a number two at the very least right now.
The Dbacks did get fleeced though. This is one of the top trades in Braves history, regardless of what happens.
The Dbacks did get fleeced though. This is one of the top trades in Braves history, regardless of what happens.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Fangraphs projects the Diamondbacks at 32 WAR, good for about 80 wins. Here is their breakdown by position and player.
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=15
ymmv
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
No, no. I mean a number three pitcher. haha I think the Dodgers and Giants will be good, so the Dbacks really have to step it up. I love their offense, but the BP is suspect and the rotation has three very solid pitchers (one coming off injury) and two question marks. I'm thinking 85 wins, probs.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'd say any team with a projected win total in the 80-85 range should be thinking about competing. For that kind of team, only a little luck is needed to get into the playoffs.
The question then becomes, does being in that spot on the expected win curve justify discounting the future to the extent the Diamondbacks appear to be doing.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Gosh, that can't be. They ought to be upper 80s, wouldn't you say? Where's the disconnect?
After Goldy and Pollock what's so great about their lineup? They have a couple of holes at right and 2nd. And they seem average at best in left, short, and catcher.
Peralta was pretty fantastic last year. Tomas, Castillo, and Lamb are all above average hitters, even if they aren't world beaters. They also have Drury who could help out as well.
They don't have an amazing offense, but it still should be quite good.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Oddly enough, they really are going to miss Inciarte IMO. I would of taken the trade without him.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Lamb hasn't shown that he's an above average hitter. 87 wRC+ for a 3B is terrible. Castillo is a tiny bit above average for a catcher, Tomas hasn't shown he's an above average hitter, 88 wRC+ for an offensive first player isn't good.
Now of course Lamb and Tomas could get better. It's hardly impossible and probably likely that they will get better. But it's not something you just say they're good.
And I woulnd't bet too hard on Peralta.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Even if they project in the high 80s would they be justified in making the trade.