Shelby to AZ for E. Inciarte, A. Blair, and Dansby Swanson
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
praeceps93
Roaming in Rome
Just going down the position list between those clubs:
Catcher: Giants>Dodgers>Dbacks. Posey is a future Hall of Famer. He wins. Grandal is no slouch, though, so he gets the second nod, especially with Barnes to spell him. Castillo is a distant third. Tuffy Gosewich has an awesome name, though.
First base: Dbacks>Dodgers>Giants. Goldy is a consistent MVP talent, so he wins here. Gonzalez is still a consistent above-average player, but you can't beat Goldy here. Belt is pretty good as well. Those guys are similar value.
2B: Giants>Dodgers>Dbacks. Full year of Joe Panik wins here in my eyes. Howie Kendrick/Kike Hernandez/Chase Utley isn't bad either. Jean Segura/Chris Owings/Phil Gosselin doesn't win here. Maybe Brandon Drury gets called up and does well.
SS: Giants>Dodgers>Dbacks. Crawford is really good, and Seager is a potential superstar. I give the edge to the Giants because of Crawford's track record of success, though Seager could very well be Rookie of the Year. Ahmed, while great with the glove, just can't compete; Segura doesn't even come close to their level.
3B: Dodgers>Giants>Dbacks. Turner has been well above average for the past 2 years, so he gets my nod here. Could see an argument for Duffy being the better of the 2 for sure, though; he would've been Rookie of the Year in a regular year without all the crazy Correas and Bryants of the world. Jake Lamb was barely an average regular this year. Plenty of room for improvement, and of course Drury could come up and be good, but much less of a chance than the others being good.
LF: Dbacks>Dodgers>Giants. Close win for Dbacks here; I think Peralta is slightly better than the Ethier/Crawford combo that will play for the Dodgers, but not by much. The Pagan/Blanco/whoever else in SF will be a distant third here.
CF: Dbacks>Dodgers>Giants. Clear win for Pollock here. Pederson and Span could have similar value with vastly different skillsets; I like Pederson, personally, but could go either way.
RF: Dodgers>Giants>Dbacks. Puig has phenomenal ability if he's healthy. Pence has been a very solid contributor for quite a while. Tomas is poop.
SP: Giants>Dodgers>Dbacks. This one is really hard for me to judge, but this is my thought process: the Giants have a fantastic 3-headed snake in Bumgarner/Cueto/Samardzija (who's stuff will play up in that big ass ballpark in SF). Cain/Heston/Peavy isn't the greatest 4/5 combo, but it's pretty average. They get the slight edge for me. Kershaw is the best starter in MLB; he's damn near as valuable as most teams 1 and 2 starters combined. Kazmir is pretty good in his own right, Ryu was very good before his injury, Maeda has good potential, Anderson had a solid year and is another year removed from injury, and McCarthy could very well come back strong; Wood is also a good piece for them. Finally, the Dbacks got much better at the top of the rotation with Greinke/Miller, but Corbin/de la Rosa/Ray isn't exactly great. Could be they play up, but overall I'd take the Dodgers rotation there.
RP: Dbacks=Dodgers=Giants. I'll be honest, I'm not super familiar with their bullpens, but to me it looks pretty close. Dbacks have Ziegler/Clippard/Hudson at the back end, though Clippard in that home stadium probably won't end well. Jansen is as good a closer as you'll find. Casilla is ok, but the rest of their bullpen is pretty meh. They're all pretty meh. Can't really pick one.
Bench: Dodgers>Dbacks>Giants. Having Kike Hernandez, Barnes, Trayce Thompson, etc. gives the Dodgers the clear win for me. Dbacks have Drury and Owings in the wings, as well as Socrates Brito, so they take 2nd. Giants have a bunch of guys whose names I don't know but will probably have a Rookie of the Year candidate because of black magic; I name them third out of spite.
So, in conclusion, the Dbacks "win" at plenty of positions; the difference is most of the positions they don't win are distant thirds, and even the ones they do win are pretty close outside of Goldy. They could for sure make a run if things break their way, I just don't think they're good at enough positions by a big enough margin to do so.
I'll admit to not knowing Belt finally broke out last year and forgetting they signed Span.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Imo Fangraphs overstates the gap between them and the Dodgers and Giants, but there is a significant gap. I think they are currently about an 83-85 win team, about 5-8 games weaker than the Dodgers and Giants. What is your take?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think the Dbacks are about a 90 win team. I think Shelby will pitch well over there. Last year he pitched well all year despite the HORRIBLE run support. I think that showed some maturity that will boded well for Miller this year. I think Tomas will be better this year. I also think the Dodgers are going to struggle this year.. the pitching, although deep is not very good.. Giants will be good because it is an even year..
but I have been wrong many times before so I would not bet on my opinion..
but I have been wrong many times before so I would not bet on my opinion..
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Pretty good analysis. Couple thoughts:
The best hitter in the division is Goldy. The best OF is Pollock. And I think you underestimate the gap between Peralta and the other LF. To me, those are three clear AZ wins.
Cutting the other way is that SF is very solid (or better) all the way around, especially in the infield. AZ gives away 2B-SS offensively, but to me, that's the one place I'm emphasizing defense - though I don't like giving away hitting at two positions for defense. Segura had one good offensive year and Owings and Gosselin have both showed some promise at times.
Offensively, I'm looking for "critical mass." Do they have enough to consistently score 4.5-5.0 runs per game? SF clearly does, I think AZ does, too. LA probably does, though I'm thoroughly underwhelmed by their OF.
I agree that all three bullpens are meh.
Where I think AZ wins is 3-4-5 in the rotation. I love Patrick Corbin (any pitcher with a walk rate under 2.0), and you FIPsters should, too. De la Rosa had a good year last year and is trending toward being a nice mid-rotation guy, assuming he gets his gopheritis under control. Archie Bradley shows a lot of promise, which is how I'd prefer to spend my #5 spot. The Dodgers have a lot of questions due to injuries. The Giants - I don't think Peavy has much left, Cain may be cooked and I think Samardzija is horribly overrated.
So I think the D-Backs and Giants are 88-90 win clubs and the Dodgers are a beat behind them both. And injuries and improvement and decline can move all that around a lot.
Long-term, the D-Backs have been blessed with a lot - which is a good thing, because Stew spends his assets like my ex-wife. The Giants may have the best GM in the business - certainly in terms of results - and the Dodgers can always outspend their mistakes, but their build has been sloppy to this point. Lots of waste.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I'm expecting Corbin to improve incrementally at missing bats, second year removed from surgery. He's left handed and moving into his prime. Samardzija is older, had a great 2014 and has control, it's true, but led the league in runs allowed and home runs (29!) last year with a 5.00 ERA. Praeceps is probably right that the big-ass ballpark will help him out.
But yeah, I like Corbin a lot and don't much like Samardzija. And that may be a big part of why others rate SF higher and AZ lower than I do.
I think that's a fair assessment. Their top end talent is really really good but the bottom part of that roster could hold them back. They have no doubt improved their team but it seems they mortgaged their future at a chance to compete.
I don't think we should expect Peralta to have a 368 BABIP again. The gap isn't that big.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Ok. So he's .850 instead of .900.
Actually a couple of projections have him being anyhwere from a 770 to 800 OPS player. Which makes him anywhere from a slight below average player to slight above average player since his defense blows. He could surprise people but he is no lock to be a good player like he was in 2015. I don't even think it's a clear 'win' for the Dbacks at that position.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I project him better.
I think it's pretty easy to make those projections. Look at what the player did last year, look at what an average player does, split the difference and then say he regressed to the mean. I'm unmoved.
Team win projections do the same thing. Average is 81, team won 91, this year they win 86....well, somebody's gonna win 90.
That's...not how that works. I don't have a problem with someone who disagrees with the projections, but that's not how the projections are done.
He had a BABIP of .328 in 2014, which is still very good but more likely than .368, and his OPS was only .770 that year. It won't take that much of a dip to see a pretty big drop-off in OPS.
Im not sure they will be a .500 team or not, but that should be about their range of expected wins. They are clearly the 3rd best team in the division.
You are worried about catche.....thats probably one of the positions, Im not as concerned with them.
They have a replacement level 2B. They have a SS that may not reach 1.5 WAR. They have a below league average 3B. Their LF was a fluke last year. Right field in a blackhole for them. There lineup is essentially 1 great hitter, 1 really good hitter, and another that was awfully lucky last year.
They have an ace, a solid number 2 and a bunch of question marks on the starting staff. The bullpen doesn't look like a difference maker either way.
So, yeah .500 ish.
Is Samardzija a bad 3rd pitcher? Is Peavy/Cain bad options for 4/5th starter? What about Heston as backup?
"The bullpen is unimpressive." How so? Castila/Romo/Strickland is pretty damn nice.
The OF will start either Pagan or Blanco because Pence/Span are the other 2 starters.
Nice analysis. You are underating the Giants pen though. They were 7th in ERA last year, but that really doesn't say a whole lot. They have 3 pretty solid guys and a really good LOOGY.
Hudson isn't a good pitcher. Clippard will likely struggle in that park. Ziegler is ok, but that pen is simply asking for trouble.
Peralta also came out of nowhere. He was 25 years old in Indy ball. The last year and a half gives some hope, but it's a bit of a stretch to project great things from him. He's helped by playing in that park, but he's not going to withstand a .368 BABIP, he can't hit lefties, and is a poor defender. His HR/FB rate of 18% is pretty high and I wouldn't expect that to continue.
His range of projected numbers has to be pretty damn large.... .750 to .900. But, I'd venture to guess he may be low .800s OPS if he gets the majority of at bats vs. righties.
praeceps93
Roaming in Rome
Yeah, I freely admit I'm not super familiar with their bullpens. Edge could go to any of them, give it to whichever you want.