chop2chip
Well-known member
A surprisingly good point from the ironic username of Heyward.
Sherman: Braves offered Heyward 80M after 2013
- Thread starter chop2chip
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A surprisingly good point from the ironic username of Heyward.
The backend of the Heyward contract could be a real problem if his defensive value dissipates.
According to advanced metrics there is a huge gap.
Or be a steal as he reaches his ceiling.
What is his ceiling at this point? Hasn't that changed for Jason?
Then Heyward will be in a long line of players who has negative value at the end of his contract. What if he regains his power and is an offense force like he was as a rookie? Then that would be one of the best contracts ever.
Almost everyone here speculating on Heyward is that he's never going to get better and likely worse when he hasnt even entered his prime years (age wise) yet.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Over 874 games, Parra has a Defensive value of 35.7.
Over 722 games, Heyward has a defensive value of 45.1.
The gap isn't all that large and that's not accounting for the decline Parra has had the last 2 years where he's lost about 10 off of that total. Coincidentally, the last two season have been his age 26 and 27 years which is the same ages for Heyward's next two seasons. At the same age they had the same career defensive value.
Not a huge gap.
I would say a WRC+ over 130 with 20 steals and his defense is probablly his ceiling.
The Cardinals are a tremendous organization. I think we would all agree on this ponit. 3 out of the last 6 games Heyward hasn't played.
They might be seeing the same issues that Braves were when they put their valuation on Heyward.
Watching him right now do you really believe that there aren't issues currently that he has to figure out?
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
If he does, then that team gets a huge steal, obviously.
But he hasnt come close to that last year or this year. I dont know if anyone is writing him off but what has he shown to get back to his rookie year form or even 2013 form?
Maybe he gets hot from here on forward but from what i've seen, there's still huge flaws in his offensive game.
I have nothing against the guy, he's a great dude, and hell of a player.
chop2chip
Well-known member
To be fair, Heyward has had a hurt hip. That's contributed to why he hasn't been playing as much.
Thats not fair on my part. I haven't kept up the past few days.
Thanks for the update.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
To be fair, he had hip tightness the last couple games but with Grischuk back i'll be interested if he eats into some of Heyward's AB's going forward.
The one thing you are missing there is that most of Para's defensive contributions are from his throwing arm. It's his best skill. His range outside of one year has never been that great and it's on the decline. So even with his arm he's never likely to be a positive defender again. All of Heywards value is in his range and as long as he has that then he's going to continue to be miles ahead of Para.
Heyward is currently day to day with an injury.
I never said there wasn't. His biggest issue is finding that power stroke again.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I didn't cite Parra for the sole purpose of using him as an aging comp. I cited his low value for providing ~roughly the same defense. There other Gerardo Parra's in the league right now that serve the same purpose.
How expensive would Jackie Bradley Jr. be on the open market? Maybe 5 million a season? He is a very similar defensive player to Heyward. That's my point when I say that outfield defense isn't a highly valued commodity.
Right. Jacke Bradley Jr also has a career WRC+ of 43 and a career WAR of 0.1. I don't see the point in bringing up players who would obviously be plus plus on defense but could never hit enough to be a big league regular.
Isn't the point though that a guy whose a poor fielder but a plus hitter is worth way more than the inverse?