Next steps - Minor and Kimbrel join Gattis and Johnson on the trading block.
So It's All In One Place
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
Next steps - Minor and Kimbrel join Gattis and Johnson on the trading block.
Always relative depending on your definition of "top dollar"...
quite sure Detroit would be willing to offer up Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Buck Farmer for Kimbrel. I wonder if the Yankees would offer up Aaron Judge plus for Minor.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Too late.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
I already offered a thanks, but THANK YOU. We have six years of control over Max Fried- awesome! Now all he has to do is recover from major arm surgery, work through two or three levels of the minor leagues and become a major league pitcher we want to have control over.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Id send those two packing to Texas. They should have high interest in those two players.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
yeah our definition of "top dollar" is different.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
I've been in the "blow this thing up" camp for awhile now. Keep plugging away Hart. Take the shots to do what needs doing.
About 4-5 years late IMO, but it had to be done at some point.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
Agreed. And looking at where all the newcomers are now being ranked in the farm system, then I'd say that Hart has made some major progress with that part of the project.
Now what to do with Gattis, CJ and Kimbrell...
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
It really should be a full rebuilding. If we can't win with Teheran/Wood/Minor/Miller/Freeman/Gattis/Simmons making under 20 million combined it's not going to be much easier when they make 60+ million in 2017.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Payroll should jump to 130+ by then, not a big deal
Exact reason I'm all for rolling the dice and moving Kimbrel, Minor, and Gattis now - could completely stock system from 1-20 with prospects who should all be ready around the time the new park opens. Make a couple of serious international splashes in Moncada and Alfredo Despaigne/Lourdes Gourriel and a couple of free-agent signings either of the next two winters and the organization would be far better off than it is now.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
My take on what we got and what we gave up.
Jace Peterson--statistics are impressive, but remember he was playing in the California, Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues the past two years. All excellent hitting environments. Similar to players like Pastornicky and La Stella in our systems.
Dustin Peterson--struggled in Low A as a 19 year old. Closest comp in our system might be Connor Lien who had a better season in low A as a 20 year old.
Mallex Smith--had success in both Low A and High A as a 21 year old. Similar to the success that our own Jose Peraza had in High A and AA as a 20 year old. If you consider that Peraza was one level ahead of Smith while a year younger and also playing in tougher hitting environments, you can get a sense of context to evaluate Smith's success in 2014.
It is noteworthy that none of these three made their league's Top 20 prospects in 2014 (using BA's lists).
Collectively, I would value the three at 1.5 WAR.
I will hold off on Fried until the end.
Now for what we gave up.
Justin Upton projects at about a 3.5 WAR player in 2015 while being payed the price of a 2 WAR player. Surplus value is 1.5 WAR.
The draft pick (about #30) is worth about 1.5 WAR.
So what we've given up is worth about 3 WAR.
I saved Fried for last because he is the most difficult to value. I will point out that we got Paul Maholm for Vizcaino (at a time when Viz was recovering from TJ surgery and at a time when Maholm was an effective major league starting pitcher with a reasonable contract with one and half seasons left on it). To make this an even trade you have to value Fried at about 1.5 WAR in terms of surplus value. This is pretty close to where I value him and I would say this comes close to being a fair trade.
I have no problems with this trade. As I have discussed elsewhere, I do have problems with the Heyward and Markakis moves. Those are much more likely to work out poorly for the team.
All the above thoughts are couched in terms of probabilities. In all cases, it is possible a player could end up performing much better or much worse than his central tendencies. But it is not a good idea to base an ex ante evaluation upon outcomes far in the tails of the distribution of possible outcomes.
Jace Peterson--statistics are impressive, but remember he was playing in the California, Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues the past two years. All excellent hitting environments. Similar to players like Pastornicky and La Stella in our systems.
Dustin Peterson--struggled in Low A as a 19 year old. Closest comp in our system might be Connor Lien who had a better season in low A as a 20 year old.
Mallex Smith--had success in both Low A and High A as a 21 year old. Similar to the success that our own Jose Peraza had in High A and AA as a 20 year old. If you consider that Peraza was one level ahead of Smith while a year younger and also playing in tougher hitting environments, you can get a sense of context to evaluate Smith's success in 2014.
It is noteworthy that none of these three made their league's Top 20 prospects in 2014 (using BA's lists).
Collectively, I would value the three at 1.5 WAR.
I will hold off on Fried until the end.
Now for what we gave up.
Justin Upton projects at about a 3.5 WAR player in 2015 while being payed the price of a 2 WAR player. Surplus value is 1.5 WAR.
The draft pick (about #30) is worth about 1.5 WAR.
So what we've given up is worth about 3 WAR.
I saved Fried for last because he is the most difficult to value. I will point out that we got Paul Maholm for Vizcaino (at a time when Viz was recovering from TJ surgery and at a time when Maholm was an effective major league starting pitcher with a reasonable contract with one and half seasons left on it). To make this an even trade you have to value Fried at about 1.5 WAR in terms of surplus value. This is pretty close to where I value him and I would say this comes close to being a fair trade.
I have no problems with this trade. As I have discussed elsewhere, I do have problems with the Heyward and Markakis moves. Those are much more likely to work out poorly for the team.
All the above thoughts are couched in terms of probabilities. In all cases, it is possible a player could end up performing much better or much worse than his central tendencies. But it is not a good idea to base an ex ante evaluation upon outcomes far in the tails of the distribution of possible outcomes.
Perfect Cell
Lynchburg Prospect
Viz is our fith best prospect now? gross.
Stop with the EXTREME REACTIONS
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
It's always worked for me.