So, I've been away for a while in the South Pacific

H

Horsehide Harry

<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
and have returned with the Braves playing better than anyone should have a right to hope for. The longer this goes the more you have to be tempted to go for it. Even though I think the offense is playing way, WAY over its head right now and that the young pitching will struggle at some point, I'm willing to hope a little at this point against my better judgement.

With that in mind, I present for your consideration the return of the HH special: a poser of a trade, unlikely to really happen:

Braves get: Machado, C Davis (plus his deferred money) and either Dylan Bundy or Gausman for

Orioles get: Teheran, Markakis, Swanson, Allard and Fried

Why it works for the Braves: get an All-Star shortstop in Machado as a RH option to pair with Freeman and gives the Braves a chance to talk extension; get a LH slugger who can play 1B, 3B and RF who is way overpaid and risky but is better at $17M per than the $23M the Orioles owe - he also provides a year's worth of insurance if the Braves can't or won't resign Freeman; get a young controllable starter in either Gausman or Bundy who looks like he's ready to become a staff leader. Also, the Braves move Teheran and his money.

Why it works for the Orioles: it really only does to get rid of Davis and the majority of his money. If the Orioles don't want to do that, then they can probably do better just moving Machado by himself. However, the Orioles are staring a rebuild right in the face and getting Swanson back as an immediate SS replacement plus two LH pitchers close to being ready could be attractive.

I know you all missed me.
 
Pass.

3b is in good shape as soon as,we figure out that Bautista isn't a capable third baseman and we get Camargo back at 3b. We should be focused on bringing in a high leverage reliever like Herrera.
 
That's a laughable deal for the Orioles. It's one of the most ridiculous proposals I have seen.
 
If he could play a passable left field (which I don't believe he can), a player like Chris Davis would be high on my shopping list. My ideal move next off-season involves acquiring a left fielder on a contract with little or no surplus value. We would not have to give up much in the way of prospects to get that kind of player on that kind of contract.
 
nsacpi said:
If he could play a passable left field (which I don't believe he can), a player like Chris Davis would be high on my shopping list. My ideal move next off-season involves acquiring a left fielder on a contract with little or no surplus value. We would not have to give up much in the way of prospects to get that kind of player on that kind of contract.
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I've seen Davis play OF a couple of times and he's looked ok. He's certainly athletic enough. He moves much better (or did) than your typical 1B.

The idea behind the trade (for any who missed it) is that the Orioles move about $80M in unwanted payroll (Davis), along with a guy that they won't resign but don't want to trade within division (Yanks, Sox, Jays) in Machado plus a good young pitcher with some injury history (Bundy or Gausman) for some pretty good prospects (Swanson, Allard, Fried) plus a useful, affordable pitcher (Teheran) plus a home town hero in the middle of a resurgent year (Markakis).

If the Orioles just opened up the market and took the best offer available for Machado they probably would get 3 prospects with one being a top 25 type guy and the other two being top 100 type guys. If they were to trade Bundy or Gausman they would likely get 2 prospects of note, one in the top 25 range and the other top 100. But to get rid of Davis who has one of the worst overall contracts in baseball right now, they would essentially have to write off his entire value - at the beginning of 2018 he was owed $115M over the next 5 years with $30M of that being deferred. The trade I constructed can be viewed like this: Swanson, Allard and Fried for Machado. Bundy(or Gausman) and Davis (plus Davis's deferred money) for Teheran and Markakis.

The Orioles could move Machado for value, out of the AL East (that seems to be important to Angelos), rid themselves of Davis (and write off his deferred money from 2018 savings essentially washing their hands of him in the future, acquire an Angelos favorite and hometown hero in Markakis and either keep or trade Teheran). They further clear the payroll decks by trading Adam Jones (suggest to San Fran) then make a big splash in the offseason by either re-signing Machado OR making a strong play for Harper (Harper would chap the asses of the GNats).

The Braves OTOH gamble a bit by taking on Davis who has played 1B, 3B and OF at the ML level but at a diminished rate of $17M per year (or a net of $6M in 2019 with the loss of Teheran). You get Machado to pair with Freeman this season and go with a Bautista/Davis platoon in the OF when Riley comes up.

2B Albies
LF Acuna
1B Freeman
SS Machado
RF Bautista/Davis
C Flowers/Suzuki
3B Riley/Contreras
P
CF Inciarte

SP: Bundy, Folty, McCarthy, Newk, Soroka/Gohara

Davis wouldn't handcuff the budget too much since you get Bundy going forward and clear Teheran. Davis also provides some limited insurance against the loss (for a year) of Freeman after 2021 if he's not re-signed.
 
nsacpi said:
If he could play a passable left field (which I don't believe he can), a player like Chris Davis would be high on my shopping list. My ideal move next off-season involves acquiring a left fielder on a contract with little or no surplus value. We would not have to give up much in the way of prospects to get that kind of player on that kind of contract.
Click to expand...

Chris Davis is the battiest part of the thing.

He's owed 23 million through 2022, his age 36 season.

Last year at age 31, he struck out 37% of the time on his way to a .1 WAR season. He's currently pacing for a negative WAR.

He hasn't really played any significant time in OF since 2015. This is Jose Bautista if Jose Bautista was only capable of playing 1B and cost 23 million dollars.

Even the idea that Chris Davis in 2022 would be "insurance" for Freddie Freeman not re-signing is odd.

I'd happily part with Swanson, Allard and Fried for a big piece that made sense for the Braves budget and time table, but Chris Davis makes negative sense. Not only is he not as good as Markakis, absorbing his salary pretty much takes you out of the upper end free agent market.

Yech.
 
Chris Davis completely sucks. How on earth is he insurance for Freeman leaving?

Especially considering that Freeman wouldn't be leaving until after 2021 at the earliest, when Chris Davis will be approaching 36 and worth -11 WAR.
 
smootness said:
Chris Davis completely sucks. How on earth is he insurance for Freeman leaving?

Especially considering that Freeman wouldn't be leaving until after 2021 at the earliest, when Chris Davis will be approaching 36 and worth -11 WAR.
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He's insurance for losing Freeman because he can play 1B when Freeman leaves after 2021 (for one year) also for the times for when Freeman is injured.

I'm not saying he's good. He's not. He's kind of Adam Dunn with a little better defense. But the point is that you get Machado at a small discount and Bundy for the pain of taking on Davis's money.

Here's a question: given a choice between the two right now who do you take: Bundy or Archer?
 
Horsehide Harry said:
He's insurance for losing Freeman because he can play 1B when Freeman leaves after 2021 (for one year) also for the times for when Freeman is injured.

I'm not saying he's good. He's not. He's kind of Adam Dunn with a little better defense. But the point is that you get Machado at a small discount and Bundy for the pain of taking on Davis's money.

Here's a question: given a choice between the two right now who do you take: Bundy or Archer?
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I'm not sure half a season of Machado is worth a whole lot more than Swanson, Allard, and Fried straight up if that.
 
The Orioles are a decent trade partner in that they have a fair number of expiring contracts.

Man Machado 3B 16 million
Adam Jones CF 17.3 million
Zach Brittain LHP 12 million
Brad Brach RHP 5.1 million
K. Gausman RHP 5.6 million
Dylan Bundy RHP 1.6 million

Markakis 11 million
Teheran 8.16 million
Brandon McCarthy 11.5 million


So let's Try

Markakis 11
Teheran 8.2
19.2 million

Allard
Swanson
Gohara
Fried

Machado 16
Brach 5.1
Bundy 1.6
22.7 million

Bundy
McCarthy
Soroka
Folty
Newcomb

Vizcaino
Brach
Carle
Winkler
Minter
Freeman
Biddle

Albies 2B
Acuna RF
Freeman 1B
Machado 3B
Tucker / Camargo / Bautista ? LF
Flowers/Suzuki C
Culbertson SS
Pitcher
Inciarte CF


So the Braves take on 3.5 million in 2018, but shed 5-6 million in 2019 (Teheran/Bundy Arb setoff). This is sort of the opposite of their financial position right now, but roll with it.

Braves improve the middle of the order signficantly. Audition for Machado. Improve the pen, possibly improve the rotation.

You are trying to replace Markakis's production in the OF by committee while not losing too much defensively. On the other side you've basically replaced Swanson with Machado in the infield which may or may not be a defensive downgrade but is an offensive and middle order upgrade.

Your rotation is probably a wash at worst, maybe a little better. And its cheaper now and going forward. And you added a good piece to the pen.

If Machado walks you have given away an under control short stop and a TOR moon shot, plus two possible crafty lefty starters and would only have Bundy to show for it.

But you've probably given yourself a better shot at contention in 2018, a better shot at Machado. You can look at Albies at SS and 2B is maybe the deepest market the following season.

...

Now someone can do the surplus value calculations and tell me how this doesn't add up at all. I suspect that Soroka might be necessary component. But at least this improves the Braves without murdering their payroll going forward.
 
Southcack77 said:
Chris Davis is the battiest part of the thing.

He's owed 23 million through 2022, his age 36 season.
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That's the other issue with Davis. The four years remaining after this year. The price for those four years. And the age of the player.

My preference is for 1) fewer years committed 2) lower price 3) younger player 4) contract with modest amount of expected surplus.

There are some younger guys I would keep an eye on for left field next year. Joc Pederson. Max Kepler. Ian Happ. None is perfect. But we should be able to get a solid left fielder without taking on too much financial risk or having to give up too much in the way of prospects.
 
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Southcack77 said:
The Orioles are a decent trade partner in that they have a fair number of expiring contracts.

Man Machado 3B 16 million
Adam Jones CF 17.3 million
Zach Brittain LHP 12 million
Brad Brach RHP 5.1 million
K. Gausman RHP 5.6 million
Dylan Bundy RHP 1.6 million

Markakis 11 million
Teheran 8.16 million
Brandon McCarthy 11.5 million


So let's Try

Markakis 11
Teheran 8.2
19.2 million

Allard
Swanson
Gohara
Fried

Machado 16
Brach 5.1
Bundy 1.6
22.7 million

Bundy
McCarthy
Soroka
Folty
Newcomb

Vizcaino
Brach
Carle
Winkler
Minter
Freeman
Biddle

Albies 2B
Acuna RF
Freeman 1B
Machado 3B
Tucker / Camargo / Bautista ? LF
Flowers/Suzuki C
Culbertson SS
Pitcher
Inciarte CF


So the Braves take on 3.5 million in 2018, but shed 5-6 million in 2019 (Teheran/Bundy Arb setoff). This is sort of the opposite of their financial position right now, but roll with it.

Braves improve the middle of the order signficantly. Audition for Machado. Improve the pen, possibly improve the rotation.

You are trying to replace Markakis's production in the OF by committee while not losing too much defensively. On the other side you've basically replaced Swanson with Machado in the infield which may or may not be a defensive downgrade but is an offensive and middle order upgrade.

Your rotation is probably a wash at worst, maybe a little better. And its cheaper now and going forward. And you added a good piece to the pen.

If Machado walks you have given away an under control short stop and a TOR moon shot, plus two possible crafty lefty starters and would only have Bundy to show for it.

But you've probably given yourself a better shot at contention in 2018, a better shot at Machado. You can look at Albies at SS and 2B is maybe the deepest market the following season.

...

Now someone can do the surplus value calculations and tell me how this doesn't add up at all. I suspect that Soroka might be necessary component. But at least this improves the Braves without murdering their payroll going forward.
Click to expand...

If it costs 4.5 years of Dansby, 6 years of Gohara, and 6.5 years of Soroka, along with still decent pieces in Allard and Fried, just to get a half year of Machado and 3.5 years of Bundy, holy crap.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
He's insurance for losing Freeman because he can play 1B when Freeman leaves after 2021 (for one year) also for the times for when Freeman is injured.
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Sure, he can play 1B. And by that point, he'll probably still be able to play 1B...in the same way that I can play 1B. I don't know why we'd want him to, though.
 
nsacpi said:
That's the other issue with Davis. The four years remaining after this year. The price for those four years. And the age of the player.

My preference is for 1) fewer years committed 2) lower price 3) younger player 4) contract with modest amount of expected surplus.

There are some younger guys I would keep an eye on for left field next year. Joc Pederson. Max Kepler. Ian Happ. None is perfect. But we should be able to get a solid left fielder without taking on too much financial risk or having to give up too much in the way of prospects.
Click to expand...

Reddick would have been a great signing. Don't they have Tucker knocking on the door?
 
smootness said:
A half season of Machado isn't worth Dansby straight up, IMO.
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Might be worth it for some franchise, but I think you’re right it’s not worth it for the Braves—especially since I think it’s a defensive downgrade, and sooner or later Machado’s bound to be back at third.
 
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