Why not the 06 McCann, and 2010 Heyward instead.
So whats the answer to our offensive woes ?
- Thread starter BravesfanMike
- Start date
Why not the 06 McCann, and 2010 Heyward instead.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Yeah, he's a Nationals knobslurper just like the rest of the Worldwide Leader. Their groupthink is just embarrassing. It took them three years to figure out the Phillies were never coming back.
Here's some preliminary analysis: last year we were 4th in the league in runs scored (the ultimate offensive stat, really) and this year we are 14th. Why? A couple of things immediately jump out. First, last year, although we led the league in strikeouts and were ninth in batting average, we covered that by being first in homers and second in walks. Thus, our OPS was third. This year, we are only 7th in homers and have dropped to 12th in walks. Our batting average has dropped somewhat, relative to the league (from 9th to 14th), and our strikeouts are somewhat improved (we are "only" third in the league this season). HOWEVER, due to the significant drops in homers and (especially) walks, our OPS has dropped from 3rd to 14th.
Comments: I am relatively unconcerned about strikeouts. They pretty much don't matter in the long haul. Likewise, I don't dwell over the semi-mythological concepts of "manufacturing runs", and "productive outs". What DOES matter is our ability to get on base and to hit with power, and those two things have fallen off the cliff, relatively speaking. I don't necessarily thing the design is flawed, but if you design an offense around walks and homers, you'd better be able to walk and hit homers, which we aren't doing right now.
Now, why aren't those things happening? Everyone's guess is as good as mine. But Walker and Fletcher were here last year when we scored plenty of runs. If "design" is the issue, neither of them is responsible with that. Will we "normalize" over the rest of the season and increase our walk rates and power numbers? Who knows?
I haven't gone behind the numbers to look at things such as line drive rates, BABIP, Homers/fly ball, etc. but I invite someone to do so.
Our offensive goes as Heywood does, as evidenced last night by him sparking the team.
When he was moved to the leadoff spot last year his numbers were insane and we were beating up teams until the HBP to the jaw. We got away in April with Justin and Freddie carrying our squad.
When he was moved to the leadoff spot last year his numbers were insane and we were beating up teams until the HBP to the jaw. We got away in April with Justin and Freddie carrying our squad.
Its funny bc Nats fans are like every other MLB teams fans that think Law hates them
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It's really pretty simple to me. The probable book on us is that we aren't hitting fastballs in the strike zone consistently, so why nibble? I'd be curious to know the nature of our strikeouts, as in called/swing and miss, swing and miss in the zone/outside the zone. If we're swinging at crap, that's one thing that can be corrected. If we are swinging and missing at average fastballs in the zone, that is something else entirely and if the latter is the case, we've got a problem on our hands. I just think that we don't have what I would call many "pure" hitters on the team.
I've always believed that hitting coaches have little to do with it.
We have the highest swinging strike% in the league. Tied for lead league in most pitches seen that are strikes (49%) Worst in the league in making contact.
I'd personally rather have Gattis' contract than Mac's, plus he keeps the lineup balanced throughout. The 2010 Heyward would be an upgrade I skipped over, but really didn't think it'd make much of a difference if we had Gordon and Blowtis at the top of the order and either version of Heyward down near the bottom.
I seriously hope Fredi's fixation on having the Pitcher hitting 8th disappears soon - it's had absolutely no positive effect on production. Having a the Pitcher's spot potentially receive more plate appearances than the guy (Simba) making the most contact of anyone in the lineup is beyond idiotic IMO.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think that kind of backs up my point. The book on us is "throw strikes, most of the team can't hurt you."
57Brave
Well-known member
Actually the pitcher really doesn't get more AB's. A PH after the 5th inning is who is getting that so-called extra opportunity. Supposing the Braves are behind and the starter is getting wracked. Otherwise, the the team is winning and pitcher is hitting anyway be it 8 or nine and offense isn't an issue
The bench is hitting 8th rather than the pitcher. Should the P (8th) make the last out the construction of this lineup has JUpt in the 3 hole and Freeman in the 4. Meaning also when Laird is hitting 5th -- he is only hitting 5th once a game.
I have wondered for years why teams have not utilized this spot more efficiently. To my mind what has to happen is your offensive concept of a bench has to be built around this spot in the order.
Regardless of who hits where your team will make either 24 or 27 outs.
Question -- After the 1st inning what spot in the order through the course of the season leads off most often
Better question -- what spot in the order (statistically) is most responsible for making the third out
???
And here you touch on another hidden issue. OPS of current bench players: Pena .642, Doumit .494, Laird .493, Schafer .401, Pastornicky .477.
The bench either must get better, or we need to shop around a bit to strengthen that area.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I don't think it's been hidden very well. With McCann moving on, we lost our best bench piece in Gattis, who is doing fine as a regular. They traded for Doumit to fill a noticeable hole and he's doing poorly. Laird, Schafer, and Pastornicky are all doing much worse than I thought they would, but their top end ain't that great.
If they move Uggla, my guess is Gosselin or LaStella will join the team (probably Gosselin if they are planning on giving Pastornicky an extended chance). But I wouldn't be surprised to see other internal options given a shot at some point in the season, maybe even going down to Mississippi for Reyes and Kubitza. All depends on how they view those two and where they are judged to be on the developmental arc. I wouldn't be surprised if a Cunningham-for-Schafer move were being contemplated.
If the internal stuff doesn't work, they are going to have to go find a body or two. I can live with Pena in the mid-.600's for OPS because he can play 3 IF positions and acquit himself passably. They aren't looking for a ton from him.
57Brave
Well-known member
I've posted before being disappointed with Pena's offense this season and wonder if his recovery is an issue. I understand Laird's spot on the bench. He is a defensive / bullpen / meeting catcher and a decent defensive step in had Gattis not produced as expected or injured . Schafer I don't understand, Doumit if anyone on the roster is considered a bust it would be him and I've never been impressed by Pastornicky's skillset.
Has the offense gotten a timely pinch hit from any of these bench players this season? Schafer laid down a SAC in Miami a week or so ago and scored as a pinch runner. To my memory - that is it.
Here is the rub, where do you find reliable bench players and isn't it a crap shoot as to their production?
We must be entering an age where bench players have to be developed as specialists much like pitchers. But, payed accordingly.
My feelings were there were 2 or 3 better OF options than Schafer or Doumit coming out of spring training -- then again I understand, Schafer is a proven commodity and Doumit catches. (Maybe)
Was the main question coming out of ST whether Gattis could be a full time MLB catcher? Because it seems a good bit of the bench seems dedicated to filling that hole
////
Was typing while 50 posted -- llike i said a week or so ago, I smell a trade
Has the offense gotten a timely pinch hit from any of these bench players this season? Schafer laid down a SAC in Miami a week or so ago and scored as a pinch runner. To my memory - that is it.
Here is the rub, where do you find reliable bench players and isn't it a crap shoot as to their production?
We must be entering an age where bench players have to be developed as specialists much like pitchers. But, payed accordingly.
My feelings were there were 2 or 3 better OF options than Schafer or Doumit coming out of spring training -- then again I understand, Schafer is a proven commodity and Doumit catches. (Maybe)
Was the main question coming out of ST whether Gattis could be a full time MLB catcher? Because it seems a good bit of the bench seems dedicated to filling that hole
////
Was typing while 50 posted -- llike i said a week or so ago, I smell a trade
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think you can live with a lousy bench if you have a starting line-up that is solid 1-8. If that's the case, you can build a bench on specialty skill guys, which is what I think Schafer is. He plays good defense, has some speed, can handle the bat a little. Same can be said of Pena. He's a back-up IF. Laird is the equivalent of what used to be the 3rd catcher when I was growing up (glorified bullpen coach), but the 3rd catcher has gone the way of the stegosaurus and the back-up is expected to hit a little. Laird appears to have totally fallen off the table, which happens to unathletic guys in their 30s. Doumit is a true disappointment because the one thing he is supposedly able to do is hit. But the uneven play of the starters has served to magnify the weakness on the bench.
I don't know who they can move, but I think we'll see a couple of acquisitions to bolster things at some point.
I don't know who they can move, but I think we'll see a couple of acquisitions to bolster things at some point.
This is the heart of the problem with our bench IMO. We gave up a fringe prospect (who might've eventually developed into a decent pen option for us) to get the kind of piece most teams look for - and I honestly think they'd do it again - unfortunately he just hasn't performed. I do think 17 PAs as a PH is a little quick to decide that he can't help is a little premature. Someone that swings from both sides and can be your emergency Catcher that has 142 career PAs as a PH with a line of .258/.331/.379, is a nice piece to have.
I haven't looked really closely at the overall bench players' opportunities this year compared to last, but just have the feeling that they haven't been getting nearly as many PAs as they did early on last season. I do agree with Pastornicky's statement the other day about it being terribly tough to stay remotely sharp when you're going a week or two between PAs - it's just impossible for hitters to simulate game speed in the cage or BP, making it extremely hard to get your timing.
If Fredi gets back to giving guys regular days off to both keep the regulars fresh AND the bench sharp and on their toes, I think the numbers will improve. That said, when he does do that he needs to put the bench guys in a position where they can succeed - Heyward moves down in the order when Schafer plays and you have him lead off and bunt for hits, etc..
BravesBlock
Member
I am fine with shaking up the lineup but no way do I move Freeman from the number three slot. He is our best hitter and should remain where he is.