So You're Frank Wren (Or Whoever's In His Office This Winter)...
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
sturg33
I
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
And we get much worse at closer and we don't get better by default.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
No, cause we can free up his contract other ways. We have 2 very capable MLB catchers a luxury no one else has.
First thing we need to realize is the payroll is NOT going to be anywhere near $114M this year. That was a one time emergency thing to get Santana on the staff.
The situation for the 3rd OFer this offseason is going to be exactly the same as the situation at 2B last offseason. There is even less money and trade resources to play with this offseason, but something along the lines of:
- Bring in a guy like Aoki for $3M-$5M per year on a 2-3 year deal and let him bat at the top of the lineup.
- If BJ is moved then bring back Boni to be the 4th OFer.
- QO to Santana with hopes of signing him to a 3 year deal in the $40M-$48M range.
- Keep Gattis for crying out loud unless some team gives the Braves an impact option for 3B, 2B, OF or SP (nobody will).
- Bench of CB, Terdo, Boni/BJ, Goss/CJ/TLS plus one old veteran who will undoubtedly be terrible as a PHer.
More or less:
Gattis $0.5
Freeman $8.5
TLS $0.5
CJ $6.0
Simmons $3.0
Justin $14.5
Heyward $7.8
Aoki $3.0
CB $0.5
Goss $0.5
BJ $14.5
Terdo $0.5
FA $1.0
Teheran $1.0
Wood $0.5
Minor $5.0
Santana $15.0
SP5 $1.0
Kimbrel $9.0
Walden $2.5
Shae $0.5
Avilan $0.5
Varvaro $1.0
BP6 $1.0
BP7 $0.5
total $98.3
Obviously the CJ contract was stupid, but if he can be unloaded then his money plus Uggla's money can go towards keeping JUp and Heyward past next year. I don't see the Braves saving a dime by getting rid of BJ, so use him as a 4th OFer.
I have to assume all the built in raises for Kimbrel, Simmons, Freeman and Teheran were supposed to be paid for by projected increased revenue of the new stadium and reworked TV deal.
The situation for the 3rd OFer this offseason is going to be exactly the same as the situation at 2B last offseason. There is even less money and trade resources to play with this offseason, but something along the lines of:
- Bring in a guy like Aoki for $3M-$5M per year on a 2-3 year deal and let him bat at the top of the lineup.
- If BJ is moved then bring back Boni to be the 4th OFer.
- QO to Santana with hopes of signing him to a 3 year deal in the $40M-$48M range.
- Keep Gattis for crying out loud unless some team gives the Braves an impact option for 3B, 2B, OF or SP (nobody will).
- Bench of CB, Terdo, Boni/BJ, Goss/CJ/TLS plus one old veteran who will undoubtedly be terrible as a PHer.
More or less:
Gattis $0.5
Freeman $8.5
TLS $0.5
CJ $6.0
Simmons $3.0
Justin $14.5
Heyward $7.8
Aoki $3.0
CB $0.5
Goss $0.5
BJ $14.5
Terdo $0.5
FA $1.0
Teheran $1.0
Wood $0.5
Minor $5.0
Santana $15.0
SP5 $1.0
Kimbrel $9.0
Walden $2.5
Shae $0.5
Avilan $0.5
Varvaro $1.0
BP6 $1.0
BP7 $0.5
total $98.3
Obviously the CJ contract was stupid, but if he can be unloaded then his money plus Uggla's money can go towards keeping JUp and Heyward past next year. I don't see the Braves saving a dime by getting rid of BJ, so use him as a 4th OFer.
I have to assume all the built in raises for Kimbrel, Simmons, Freeman and Teheran were supposed to be paid for by projected increased revenue of the new stadium and reworked TV deal.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Difference is Seth Smith hits, Aoki doesn't.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Aoki has had the higher wOBA two of the past three seasons. He's also significantly better defensively and on the basepaths than Smith.
Then unload CJ to make room. Point is there is some IF talent in the system and pretty much zero OF talent. One more OFer that can actually get on base is needed. With limited resources the options are few.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think one thing we shouldn't presume is that Peraza is better suited for third than center. His speed might make him more valuable in center.
Also Peraza's ultimate spot might depend on how other players develop. He has the versatility to play second, center and third. So we can take a wait-and-see attitude with respect how certain players develop. Kubitza/Reyes at third. La Stella/Gosselin/Pastornicky/Reyes at second. Cunningham/Wren in center.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I should specify, Smith hits for power. And Smith just extended based on his SD season where he's ripping the cover off the ball. Aoki has been on a steady downward trajectory.
OK, but 2015 is the last realistic year for this team to compete. Once Justin and/or Heyward leave, this team's chances of winning 90+ games are pretty much gone with them. So the team needs to fix the OF now, not in 2 years.
One thing is for certain...BJ can NOT be the starting CFer on opening day, just like Uggla should NOT have been the starter at 2B this past opening day. We know with absolute certainty he is going to be terrible, just like we knew Uggla would be terrible. The same mistake simply can't be made again if this team wants to compete for a playoff spot.
Bringing in Aoki to bat leadoff does not preclude Peraza from playing CF, even if Justin and Heyward are somehow miraculously extended since Aoki can either be traded or serve as the 4th OFer. If one of Justin/Heyward leaves as a FA, that opens a slot for Peraza to play CF.
One thing is for certain...BJ can NOT be the starting CFer on opening day, just like Uggla should NOT have been the starter at 2B this past opening day. We know with absolute certainty he is going to be terrible, just like we knew Uggla would be terrible. The same mistake simply can't be made again if this team wants to compete for a playoff spot.
Bringing in Aoki to bat leadoff does not preclude Peraza from playing CF, even if Justin and Heyward are somehow miraculously extended since Aoki can either be traded or serve as the 4th OFer. If one of Justin/Heyward leaves as a FA, that opens a slot for Peraza to play CF.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
No. Not Kimbrel. I would trade Heyward to unload BJ before Kimbrel.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
I wanted Seth Smith so bad back when Prado was on the block. Everyone laughed. Dude would be perfect for this team.
He would be a perfect fit. I was concerned he was a product of Coors, but if he can hit in SD, he should be able to hit anywhere.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I am a big fan of Aoki. Wanted him badly last offseason. I don't think he would sign to be a 4th outfielder. He asked to be traded when the Brewers were planning to use him as such. Aoki is very niche player but one that I think fits our needs. He is a groundball/line drive hitter who rarely k's. He is a great bunters and has a career batting average over .400 on non sac bunts. He is a good defender and base runner.
What I worry about is he looks to be declining and losing some speed. He has a strong reverse split and hits lefties far better than righties. I have no confidence our manager will realize this and I think he will end up on the wrong side of a platoon.
What I worry about is he looks to be declining and losing some speed. He has a strong reverse split and hits lefties far better than righties. I have no confidence our manager will realize this and I think he will end up on the wrong side of a platoon.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Depends what it's for. If we trade him for what turns out to be an above average centerfielder, second baseman, and prospects I would be happy with that. Now that doesn't mean we will get proven players back but we could realistically get some prospects close to the majors that can step in and be productive players. Like when we traded Renteria and got a mid rotation starter in Jurrjens.
I think Simmons, assuming health, can be a fine closer. Take some of the savings from trading Kimbrel to sign Miller to add a dominate lefty.
sturg33
I
I guess we just value closers differently. I get it that Kimbrel is not a typical closer. But if we could get rid of BJ, it's totally worth dumping it. If you say no to doing that, you're essentially valuing Kimbrel as a $25M player, which is just crazy.