Some Red State/Blue State Indicia

thethe said:
here is one quick article that shows a piece - I can pick some rural counties across the country and do election over election % results later on when I don't have some deliverables for work.

The second way to see what these midterms might mean for presidential politics is to use statewide vote totals for governor or senator as a proxy for what a presidential vote might be were Trump on the ballot right now. It’s a very imperfect proxy for sure, especially since there is no clear Democratic opponent. But it can give a sense of partisan strength for the presidential race. Let’s start with the three states that Trump won in 2016, surprising the Democrats and giving him his Electoral College victory: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Democrats will be heartened to see that, in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Republicans at the top of the ticket did worse than Trump did in 2016. That was not the case in Wisconsin, even though that state’s Republican governor, Scott Walker, lost his race.

Percent Trump vote, 2016 Percent Republican vote for governor, 2018
Pennsylvania 46.2% 40.8%
Michigan 47.5% 44.09%
Wisconsin 47.2% 48.4%

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixg...e-midterms-how-did-they-fare-on-election-day/

Bottom line is the 'only-Trump' voter that never votes will not come out for RDS. Then it will be about what the wine moms do and how much cheating the left gets away with.

The rust belt specifically is big on Trumps policies and not idiotic lets take away social secuirty and medicare.
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I believe RDS brings in more voters from never Trumpers than he loses from only Trumpers
 
sturg33 said:
I believe RDS brings in more voters from never Trumpers than he loses from only Trumpers
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I'm willing to accept that is possible. That will be what RDS will need to do to win an election.

But of course you now have 'Never Trumpers' like lincoln project throwing mud at RDS so I think you can see where this is going.
 
thethe said:
I'm willing to accept that is possible. That will be what RDS will need to do to win an election.

But of course you now have 'Never Trumpers' like lincoln project throwing mud at RDS so I think you can see where this is going.
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I doubt that means they vote Biden
 
sturg33 said:
Lincoln project ceases to exist with Trump in the race
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World would be a better place - Then what about shows like 'The View' that are already poisoning womens minds in this country on RDS like they did Trump?

What happens when those women fil out the ballots for the whole hosehold?
 
thethe said:
here is one quick article that shows a piece - I can pick some rural counties across the country and do election over election % results later on when I don't have some deliverables for work.

The second way to see what these midterms might mean for presidential politics is to use statewide vote totals for governor or senator as a proxy for what a presidential vote might be were Trump on the ballot right now. It’s a very imperfect proxy for sure, especially since there is no clear Democratic opponent. But it can give a sense of partisan strength for the presidential race. Let’s start with the three states that Trump won in 2016, surprising the Democrats and giving him his Electoral College victory: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Democrats will be heartened to see that, in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Republicans at the top of the ticket did worse than Trump did in 2016. That was not the case in Wisconsin, even though that state’s Republican governor, Scott Walker, lost his race.

Percent Trump vote, 2016 Percent Republican vote for governor, 2018
Pennsylvania 46.2% 40.8%
Michigan 47.5% 44.09%
Wisconsin 47.2% 48.4%

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixg...e-midterms-how-did-they-fare-on-election-day/

Bottom line is the 'only-Trump' voter that never votes will not come out for RDS. Then it will be about what the wine moms do and how much cheating the left gets away with.

The rust belt specifically is big on Trumps policies and not idiotic lets take away social secuirty and medicare.
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Thanks for the data.

I find it interesting that you conclude that margin of victory/defeat declines in non-Trump years is evidence that some voters will only vote from Trump, but then completely discount RDS when the same comparison is made for the 2022 DeSantis election.

Why?
 
chop2chip said:
Thanks for the data.

I find it interesting that you conclude that margin of victory/defeat declines in non-Trump years is evidence that some voters will only vote from Trump, but then completely discount RDS when the same comparison is made for the 2022 DeSantis election.

Why?
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I'm so glad you asked me the question that a reasonable person would ask me.

Trump had this effect across the whole country while Florida benefited from mass migration due to COVID and Desantis has been a good Gov so he has great name recognition in the state.

I will hold the belief that this will not extrapolate to the rest of the country but as I've said - I will never be happier for being wrong.
 
thethe said:
I'm so glad you asked me the question that a reasonable person would ask me.

Trump had this effect across the whole country while Florida benefited from mass migration due to COVID and Desantis has been a good Gov so he has great name recognition in the state.

I will hold the belief that this will not extrapolate to the rest of the country but as I've said - I will never be happier for being wrong.
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Do you think that literally only Trump can win nationally?

Or do you think someone like Kari Lake also would win nationally?
 
sturg33 said:
Do you think that literally only Trump can win nationally?

Or do you think someone like Kari Lake also would win nationally?
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Lake does not have the recognition (yet) to do so.

Yes - At this point I believe Trump is the only one that can beat the Democrats in a national election. He has done it twice already. Why wouldn't I think he can do it now?
 
thethe said:
Lake does not have the recognition (yet) to do so.

Yes - At this point I believe Trump is the only one that can beat the Democrats in a national election. He has done it twice already. Why wouldn't I think he can do it now?
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Well I'm not saying he can't.

But if you're saying he's literally the only person walking on earth that can, I think you've officially lost it
 
sturg33 said:
Well I'm not saying he can't.

But if you're saying he's literally the only person walking on earth that can, I think you've officially lost it
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I saw two STAR GOP guys get embarrassed by Obama.

I still see the GOP in its pathetic traditional policy set that is one that would have won 30 years ago.

I see the only person that understands the country is different now as Trump and has done so the last two election cycles.

As new age people get more time in the sun (Lake/Vance/Hopefully Joe Kent) I think they can do it because they understand the world has changed tremendously the last thirty years.
 
All the aside... claiming that the person who has taken it on the chin for three consecutive election cycles is the only person that can win the next one is simply illogical

(I know I know... it was all stolen and in 2024 it won't be)
 
sturg33 said:
All the aside... claiming that the person who has taken it on the chin for three consecutive election cycles is the only person that can win the next one is simply illogical

(I know I know... it was all stolen and in 2024 it won't be)
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2018 was Trumps fault eh?

I guess your memory is brutal.

What does a 2018 election look like if no Russia hoax in addition to the hundreds of fake news cycles?

If you think that stops for Desantis well then its not a good thing that he is president.
 
sturg33 said:
no im smart enough to know that nothing is ever trump's fault
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It was Trumps fault that the Russia hoax was created that dominated the news cycle for his presidency? Its Trumps fault over half the nation thought he was a Putin puppet?

It was Trumps fault that the left smeared a good family man in Kavanuagh in front of his wife and chidlren?

Is that what you are saying?
 
no I agreed with you. nothing is trump's fault.

the system hates his guts and has successfully clobbered him in three straight elections.

luckily that all stops in 2024 while he's currently being indicted
 
I will say I had mostly forgotten about the horrific strategy error of the GA runoffs in 2020 which could have saved us a **** ton of pain over the last 2 years.

that wasn't his fault either, though.
 
sturg33 said:
no I agreed with you. nothing is trump's fault.

the system hates his guts and has successfully clobbered him in three straight elections.

luckily that all stops in 2024 while he's currently being indicted
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Got it - All those things were Trumps fault now to you. Hey - Maybe Trump really did collude with Putin!!!!

I'll deliberate and see what stage you are up to - hopefully it isn't too late for a full recovery.
 
thethe said:
Got it - All those things were Trumps fault now to you. Hey - Maybe Trump really did collude with Putin!!!!

I'll deliberate and see what stage you are up to - hopefully it isn't too late for a full recovery.
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the only man who can with the election in 2024 is the man who is 1/4 in winning elections... 0 for his last 3
 
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