Some Red State/Blue State Indicia

thethe said:
Not your position a year ago.

Ending ISIS is a win. Pulling troops out of Syria is a win. Ramping down Afghanistan is a win. Middle East Peace deals are a win. Keeping NK in check is a win.

I really do hope you try to play revisionist history on Trumps foreign policy now.

but I'm sure the guy that makes fun of Russias history and effectively tells Putin he will be executed is going to do GREAT on the world stage.
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"Not starting a new war" is not a win. it is a base level expectation I have of any president.

Ending ISIS is a win. Pulling troops out of Syria is a win. Ramping down Afghanistan is a win. Middle East Peace deals are a win. Keeping NK in check is a win.
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I agree with most of this. Failing to end the war in Afghanistan was an L. Now Biden gets to make that claim

I really do hope you try to play revisionist history on Trumps foreign policy now.
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He was a really great President with foreign policy, relative to those who came before him. But he had many failures as well, including increasing drones, and massively increasing the military budget. But overall, the best FP President we've had since probably JFK

but I'm sure the guy that makes fun of Russias history and effectively tells Putin he will be executed is going to do GREAT on the world stage.
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The comments I've seen from RDS about Putin pale in comparison to the comments I've seen from Trump
 
thethe said:
Rio Grande Valley - Urban centers in blue states.

Arizona results (LOLOLOL).

Pretending that Trump didn't start all of this and that without him we would have a voting disadvantage for the rest of Americas history because of demographics is hysterical.
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I don't understand what "Trump starting all this" has to do with anything?

RDS expanded on it. He did it better. He cleaned up the elections and got record setting hispanic vote in Florida.

That's a GREAT THING. Why is that objective reality so offensive to you?
 
sturg33 said:
I don't understand what "Trump starting all this" has to do with anything?

RDS expanded on it. He did it better. He cleaned up the elections and got record setting hispanic vote in Florida.

That's a GREAT THING. Why is that objective reality so offensive to you?
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Because you are trying to pin Desantis success in a deep red state as some sort of harbinger of what he would do in a general election. And that can't be more wrong.
 
thethe said:
Thats because you fail to understand the severity of what RDS has said.
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I know I know... Not wanting an invasion of Crimea was most terrible thing ever said and locked in WW3.

I looked briefly to see if you ever commented on Crimea before a couple weeks ago. And my initial search showed you have never typed the work before this year. Which is strange because there's been ample opportunity to talk about Russia over the last 10 years.

It's possible I may have missed your previous warnings about it... I'll do a more thorough search later to see. But I think it's also possible you were instructed to jump on RDS statement as RDS=BAD and ran with it
 
thethe said:
Because you are trying to pin Desantis success in a deep red state as some sort of harbinger of what he would do in a general election. And that can't be more wrong.
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I can only compare his performance to others before him.

And he had - by far - the biggest electoral success in a half of a century... just 4 years after barely squeaking by to win the race
 
sturg33 said:
I know I know... Not wanting an invasion of Crimea was most terrible thing ever said and locked in WW3.

I looked briefly to see if you ever commented on Crimea before a couple weeks ago. And my initial search showed you have never typed the work before this year. Which is strange because there's been ample opportunity to talk about Russia over the last 10 years.

It's possible I may have missed your previous warnings about it... I'll do a more thorough search later to see. But I think it's also possible you were instructed to jump on RDS statement as RDS=BAD and ran with it
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I was woefully uninformed until Putin began his land invasion. I am 100% willing to admit to that.

Go look in the Globali politics event thread starting around Feb 2022. Then you'll realize your assumption is hysterically wrong.
 
thethe said:
Because you are trying to pin Desantis success in a deep red state as some sort of harbinger of what he would do in a general election. And that can't be more wrong.
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Maybe but is it any different than predicting failure for no reason at all other than he’s not Trump?

Like the whole genesis for today’s argument is that low propensity voters won’t get out to support RDS despite the fact he has recent track record of growing voting margins with low propensity voters (with no Trump on the ballot!!)
 
chop2chip said:
Maybe but is it any different than predicting failure for no reason at all other than he’s not Trump?

Like the whole genesis for today’s argument is that low propensity voters won’t get out to support RDS despite the fact he has recent track record of growing voting margins with low propensity voters (with no Trump on the ballot!!)
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Low propensity voters will not show up if its not Trump. That isn't me and I don't like it but there has been lots of analysis state by state when comparing when he was on the ticket to not as a percentage of total votes.

Just wait till the limitless money pit of the Democrats gets unleashed. If RDS did absolutely anything wrong in his life its going to be played up like he is Satan and 50% of the country will believe it.
 
thethe said:
Low propensity voters will not show up if its not Trump. That isn't me and I don't like it but there has been lots of analysis state by state when comparing when he was on the ticket to not as a percentage of total votes.

Just wait till the limitless money pit of the Democrats gets unleashed. If RDS did absolutely anything wrong in his life its going to be played up like he is Satan and 50% of the country will believe it.
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1. What are these analyses? I have one apples to apples comparison with Ron on the ballot and Trump off the ballot and Ron’s margin with all demographics grew.

2. Why wait for the D smear campaign (which btw began 2 years ago or have we forgotten Covid)? Donald has already started with the gay slurs and deep state accusations.
 
chop2chip said:
1. What are these analyses? I have one apples to apples comparison with Ron on the ballot and Trump off the ballot and Ron’s margin with all demographics grew.

2. Why wait for the D smear campaign (which btw began 2 years ago or have we forgotten Covid)? Donald has already started with the gay slurs and deep state accusations.
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Turnout percentages in low population rural R districts. Seems like small vote counts but aggregation matters.

Trump is doing whats best for the nation and that is to have him back as president. I support that 100% as the RDS supporters trash Trump at every turn.
 
chop2chip said:
1. What are these analyses? I have one apples to apples comparison with Ron on the ballot and Trump off the ballot and Ron’s margin with all demographics grew.

2. Why wait for the D smear campaign (which btw began 2 years ago or have we forgotten Covid)? Donald has already started with the gay slurs and deep state accusations.
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Low propensity voters just won't show up for Ron, even though just did in record numbers for him

The data is clear
 
I have 100% confidence that RDS would underperform Trump with the MAGA crowd in the next general election. Especially after Trump spends the next two years attacking him for being a war mongering, deep state homo who will sell them out to the MIC.

Self fulfilling prophecy
 
chop2chip said:
I have 100% confidence that RDS would underperform Trump with the MAGA crowd in the next general election. Especially after Trump spends the next two years attacking him for being a war mongering, deep state homo who will sell them out to the MIC.

Self fulfilling prophecy
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It reminds me when trump told his voters in Georgia that their voters don't matter and to stay home

Then the GOP lost Senate seats
 
sturg33 said:
It reminds me when trump told his voters in Georgia that their voters don't matter and to stay home

Then the GOP lost Senate seats
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Its funny because you said at the time it was because of the checks they were handing out.

Flip Flop

Flip Flop
 
thethe said:
Its funny because you said at the time it was because of the checks they were handing out.

Flip Flop

Flip Flop
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I said at the time that trump was an idiot for telling his voters not to bother while the opposition was handing out free money to vote for them

Unfortunately trump just proves over and over his election strategies don't work well for actually being inaugurated
 
chop2chip said:
Can you show your work?
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here is one quick article that shows a piece - I can pick some rural counties across the country and do election over election % results later on when I don't have some deliverables for work.

The second way to see what these midterms might mean for presidential politics is to use statewide vote totals for governor or senator as a proxy for what a presidential vote might be were Trump on the ballot right now. It’s a very imperfect proxy for sure, especially since there is no clear Democratic opponent. But it can give a sense of partisan strength for the presidential race. Let’s start with the three states that Trump won in 2016, surprising the Democrats and giving him his Electoral College victory: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Democrats will be heartened to see that, in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Republicans at the top of the ticket did worse than Trump did in 2016. That was not the case in Wisconsin, even though that state’s Republican governor, Scott Walker, lost his race.

Percent Trump vote, 2016 Percent Republican vote for governor, 2018
Pennsylvania 46.2% 40.8%
Michigan 47.5% 44.09%
Wisconsin 47.2% 48.4%

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixg...e-midterms-how-did-they-fare-on-election-day/

Bottom line is the 'only-Trump' voter that never votes will not come out for RDS. Then it will be about what the wine moms do and how much cheating the left gets away with.

The rust belt specifically is big on Trumps policies and not idiotic lets take away social secuirty and medicare.
 
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