Spring Training '17

Southcack77 said:
But the consideration isn't really the prospects likelihood of pitching injury free to his mid 30s. The analysis is the likelihood of his pitching well through arbitration years, plus a reasonable extension, which a tj veteran might before willing to do.

I'm not sure the braves should care whether Fried might have second tj at 31.

That's where your stats might need refining. Seems like an area where a broad stat might be of less use than a narrow one.
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I mean if you are of the burn em and let em go philosophy then you might be right. Not sure how I feel about that though.
 
rawwr said:
You're oversimplifying the issue here. While you're right, a player who has had one TJS is more likely to have another TJS than a player who hasn't had one, the rate of repeat surgeries is still only 10% (according to this article). If the Braves found that teams following your logic regarding TJS were discounting their TJS pitchers disproportionately to that 10% rate in trades, it would actually make sense to take advantage of that market inefficiency. There are certainly criticisms you can make about how they determine what would be a "disproportionate" discount, but I don't think it's as cut and dried as you're making it out to be.
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Excellent point, as usual. There very well could be a market inefficiency with former TJ pitching prospects. I would like to see some analysis on that tackles the following questions:

1. What is the expected surplus value of pitchers that had TJ vs pitchers that haven't?

2. Are teams under or over valuing either set of pitchers, either in trades or FA contracts?

So...who wants to do the analysis??
 
thewupk said:
I mean if you are of the burn em and let em go philosophy then you might be right. Not sure how I feel about that though.
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I think the only place you are going to find value is in the control years plus whatever additional time you can squeeze with an extension. I suppose it might be more expensive for the Braves to sign Kershaw for example as a free agent than the Dodgers might be able to re-sign him, but you can't count on home town discount.
 
I am trying to figure out how RA Dickey had Tommy John without the benefit of owning ulnar collateral ligament
 
bravesfanMatt said:
speaking that I don't like Dodger$ or the Giants.. Zona seems like a good team to route for.
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Yeah, I typically route for them to win their division. I hope they can pull it off! Arizona has a solid ballclub, but the holes and lack of leadership kills them each year.

Goldy has to be yuge -- and healthy -- to win the division.
 
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