Stanton
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
As a baseball fan I hope he gets traded to an AL team and puts up three monster years so he can opt out
30 years ago before the analytics craze GMs would be trading their first born for him. His baseball card stats are awesome. The marlins need a dinosaur organization to step up and make a trade.
Dave Cameron answered exactly this question in his latest chat:
12:46
Hunky Dory: If Trout were a FA this winter (no extension), would he break $600MM? $700MM?
12:46
Dave Cameron: Depends on opt-outs and such. But yeah, over $600M.
1:10
Lawrence Summers: Trout gets more than $50m/12 years? Man I dunno…
1:10
Dave Cameron: More like 40 for 15.
Let's perform a sanity check on that $600M+ number...
Any team acquiring Trout would be projecting him to produce something like 80-90 wins over the rest of his career. That's $800M-$900M in value, which a team would spread out over as many years as possible to lower the AAV.
Trout would almost certainly require at least 1, and probably 2 opt outs in his mega deal. According to this: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/how-to-value-opt-outs/
An opt out is worth approximately 10%-15% of the total deal, so each opt out would bring the total contract down by about $80M-$135M.
So $800M-$900M minus 1-2 opt outs put a Trout mega contract right around $640M with 2 opt outs on the low end, and $765M with 1 opt out on the high end.
The team would try to split that up over 15+ years to get the AAV into the $40M-$50M range, even though that means paying Trout well into his 40s.
A team would need a $200M+ payroll to afford Trout and still avoid paying a single player 20%+ of their payroll, so this is a contract that is definitely doable for modern day baseball teams for a generational player like Trout.
That kind of money means Mike Trout is essentially worth about half as much as an entire MLB franchise.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
Since everyone on the internet has a Stanton trade idea I will throw out mine.
If the Nats can't resign Harper why not offer Harper straight up for Stanton. The Nats would get a big time player to replace Harper. The Marlins would certainly get a great return if they could trade Harper to a contender.
If the Nats can't resign Harper why not offer Harper straight up for Stanton. The Nats would get a big time player to replace Harper. The Marlins would certainly get a great return if they could trade Harper to a contender.
"One exec suggested that Miami would need to pay as much as $5MM annually in order to receive good prospect value."
That's $50M total. Seems about right.
If the Marlins can pay that $50M after the opt out (and therefore maybe pay nothing) and get a FV 60+ prospect (Top 25 overall) in exchange, I would consider that a win for the Marlins.
That's $50M total. Seems about right.
If the Marlins can pay that $50M after the opt out (and therefore maybe pay nothing) and get a FV 60+ prospect (Top 25 overall) in exchange, I would consider that a win for the Marlins.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If they commit a potential $50M to insure against an event that has a 10-20% probability of happening and are able to parlay that into a significant better return they should do it.
Southcack77
Well-known member
A big market is the only place for Stanton or any other mega contract.
Stanton seems like a lock to opt in only if you assume that his career year in a juiced ball season is the new normal. I’d suggest that is not as likely as you think.
Stanton seems like a lock to opt in only if you assume that his career year in a juiced ball season is the new normal. I’d suggest that is not as likely as you think.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I wonder if a team trying to make a deal like that would ask for some sort of financial hedge in case Stanton does opt out? Like, the Marlins agree to 50 million post-option, but if he opts out the Marlins would still send 10 million to the team, just as an effort to balance out the value if Stanton does opt out. If they could figure out something like this, then the Marlins probably could fetch a pretty big return for Stanton. I don't know if what I just said made any sense at all lol
If Stanton opts out that means he likely produced $50M-$75M in surplus value from 2018-2020.
If Stanton opts in, that likely means he is on track to produce negative value over the course of the entire contract.
Those are the two possible outcomes...+$50M surplus value, or -$50M negative value. That's the power of the opt out for players, and why they are so incredibly valuable. They represent nothing but upside for the player, and downside for the team.
If the Marlins wipe out all chance of Stanton being worth the negative value by picking up money after the opt out, he is worth the positive value in the opt out scenario. In that case he is easily worth a Top 25 prospect. Either way the Marlins dump the salary now, and if they luck out they get a stud prospect and don't have to pay a dime.
Compared to what Harper and possibly Machado get, definitely not. I say possibly with Manny, because he had a "down year" and another down year might put him in the 250 million range, rather than the 300+million range.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The marlins can certainly move him by sending enough money. That’s never been a question.
The question is whether it makes sense for the Marlins to sacrifice payroll now and possibly for a decade to pick up a few prospects. Given their history and their current needs the answer to that is almost certainly no.
Their immediate need to shed payroll and the risk of being stuck with a destructive contract makes this an interesting bargaining ground.
The question is whether it makes sense for the Marlins to sacrifice payroll now and possibly for a decade to pick up a few prospects. Given their history and their current needs the answer to that is almost certainly no.
Their immediate need to shed payroll and the risk of being stuck with a destructive contract makes this an interesting bargaining ground.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Braves really need to go get Stanton so they don't alienate the fans...
Before the whole Coppygate and the payroll stagnation/reduction, I felt strongly that the Braves would be players for Stanton because it's the kind of splash move that emerging teams want to make, grabbing the attention of the casual fan while adding to the chances for short term success of the team. But, given everything going on, I can't see it.
Before the whole Coppygate and the payroll stagnation/reduction, I felt strongly that the Braves would be players for Stanton because it's the kind of splash move that emerging teams want to make, grabbing the attention of the casual fan while adding to the chances for short term success of the team. But, given everything going on, I can't see it.
Looks like it will come down to the Giants or the Cards. The Giants are willing to take on more money than the Cards, but the Cards have offered Alcantara and most likely one of their young mediocre OFers. The Giants don’t have much of value to offer other than salary relief.
If I’m the Marlins I take Grichuk/Piscotty plus Alcantara and agree to pay part of Stanton’s post opt out salary in the event he opts in. That gives them a cheap replacement for Stanton and one of the most electric arms currently in the game.
If I’m the Marlins I take Grichuk/Piscotty plus Alcantara and agree to pay part of Stanton’s post opt out salary in the event he opts in. That gives them a cheap replacement for Stanton and one of the most electric arms currently in the game.
I really want to see the Braves acquire an Ozuna/Prado or Ozuna/Tazawa package (maybe all 3), so I’m not listening to any scenarios where any other team gets Ozuna!
msstate7
Well-known member
What would ozuna cost us? Can we afford to trade prospects after getting gutted by mlb?
I can’t remember what I calculated his surplus value to be exactly, but I’m guessing around $50M. The centerpiece for Ozuna alone will be a FV 55 position prospect ($38M) or a FV 60 pitching prospect ($34M).
The only 2 pitchers of that quality the Braves possess are Gohara and Wright. Gohara is close to untouchable, and Wright should be. The Braves don’t have a single FV 55 position prospect to spare.
The key to the Braves getting Ozuna for a lesser prospect package is to also take another of Miami’s bad contracts like Prado or Tazawa. Since their main goal is to cut payroll, that’s something they will be interested in. Tazawa is probably worth negative $5M-$7M, and Prado is probably also negative by at least that amount.
Taking Prado and/or Tazawa in a package with Ozuna could get the cost down to something centered around a FV 55 pitching prospect ($22M). Maybe the Marlins like Camargo as a cost controlled position player.
I could see something like Ozuna/Prado/Tazawa ($35M surplus value) for Allard/Camargo/filler....if the Braves can afford to take on that much salary. They are at $93M now, so if they dump MAdams, and dump Markakis, they can add those 3 salaries and be right around $110M. No, the Marlins will not be interested taking MAdams or Markakis as part of any trade.
AA is exactly the GM who could orchestrate a massive swap like that.
msstate7
Well-known member
I would make that trade if we could pull it off