- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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Not sure why, none of the folks that are stats oriented would want us to pick Senzel. He would simply be a high floor, safe pick. Not sure what that would have to do with stats. A stats oriented pick would be Lewis (though I think he fits both stats and scouting).

He'd be the saber pick because of his on base skills and plate discipline. Plus, he would be a pick that minimizes risk, which is what sabermetrics is all about.
 
He'd be the saber pick because of his on base skills and plate discipline. Plus, he would be a pick that minimizes risk, which is what sabermetrics is all about.

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I'm having a hard time visualizing that, but thanks for the info.

Every time I see inverted, inverse, or reverse "W," and there's a picture involved, I see a freaking "M."

it's ok man, imagine this :you are in the set position with the ball at mid chest, you take the ball away from the glove behind you, keeping your hand at a semi vertical position, you stride, in a long manner , towards the plate, your arm drops but not below mid chest, and when your foot reaches it's finish you drive your leg and release the coiled ball, all without turning "pronating" you wrist or elbow. it's like Seaver or Ryan's motion. all lower body
 
He'd be the saber pick because of his on base skills and plate discipline. Plus, he would be a pick that minimizes risk, which is what sabermetrics is all about.

no, the saber pick would be the best player who is likely to provide the best long term value. that's it
 
no, the saber pick would be the best player who is likely to provide the best long term value. that's it

Don't worry. That guy hates statheads even though stats are what drive baseball more than any other sport and have since the dawn of time. The only difference now than 100 years ago is we have a better understanding of what it all means.
 
The d1baseball mock from yesterday apparently had us taking Corey Ray with Puk and Lewis being the top two picks. He said Lewis would be the pick if he fell.

They also said we are targeting Will Benson and/or Kevin Gowdy with our 40/44 picks.
 
I should've also said that their mock mentioned us moving away from prep arms. They said it's still possible we take Groome but not as likely.
 
I should've also said that their mock mentioned us moving away from prep arms. They said it's still possible we take Groome but not as likely.

I don't think anyone really knows at this point. IMO, history is the best predictor of things, and Brian Bridges is straight out of the Paul Snyder philosophy. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on a prep arm.
 
I should've also said that their mock mentioned us moving away from prep arms. They said it's still possible we take Groome but not as likely.

They had an updated version come out after, like 12 hours later, did it have any change for us?
 
I should've also said that their mock mentioned us moving away from prep arms. They said it's still possible we take Groome but not as likely.

This year I'm going to do a better job of tracking what sites predict for the Braves. There are so many conflicting reports about who the Braves like and don't like. Some say the Braves love Senzel and Ray, others say they are out on them completely. Kieboom/Wentz at 40/44, or guys like Benson and Lowe at those picks.

Some of these sites are clueless, and after this draft we will know who they are.
 
This year I'm going to do a better job of tracking what sites predict for the Braves. There are so many conflicting reports about who the Braves like and don't like. Some say the Braves love Senzel and Ray, others say they are out on them completely. Kieboom/Wentz at 40/44, or guys like Benson and Lowe at those picks.

Some of these sites are clueless, and after this draft we will know who they are.

To be fair, I'm not sure any of them have much of a feel for who likes who at this point. I think most of them are doing the same things we do - guessing. Some of them might have a little better knowledge of a particular team's system that gives them a little better feel for where the true holes are, but I'm willing to bet that very few of them are much better "guessers" than many of the posters here. Folks here have followed our tendencies far closer than most, and are just as qualified as a lot of the "experts".

I'm always much more interested in reading player reports from the sites than I am in who they think will go where. One might have different info than another about someone's gap power/speed/breaking stuff/etc.. The more information we have that might line up with the reports our scouts are compiling, the more I think we can guess correctly. Many of those sites just project their picks based on minimal information about the team's direction/true needs/etc.. Everybody knows we need power, and particularly right-handed power - that's not much of a secret. Saying we'll take Lewis if he's there is easy - he checks a couple boxes if you're looking at the holes the present team has. Of course that ignores the fact that we could take Senzel instead and shift Riley and Yepez to the OF. Pure speculation (obviously), but that would be logical as well if you assume a Maitan signing and subsequent move to 3B as the next guy behind Senzel. There's also the chance (as slim as it is) that someone drafting behind us really likes one of the Pitchers we could get at #3 and would take who we want in their spot and package that player with someone we like in their system to get that arm.

As much as it pains me to say it, DOB and Bowman's "sources" are likely as reliable (if not even more reliable) when those sites link someone to us this far out. That all probably changes come next Tuesday or Wednesday when the Draft Team really tries to go into lockdown mode and muzzles the insiders DOB and Bowman get their info from - that's when the anonymous sources leak anything credible to Mayo/Callis/Law/etc..
 
Looking back at last year's pre draft stuff, no one had Kolby Allard tied to Atlanta. Most of the focus was on the local players Tyler Stephenson and Cornelius Randolph, but the prep arms that were connected to the Braves were Ashe Russell and Mike Nikorak.

Atlanta took Kolby Allard, and then Mike Soroka and Austin Riley were two completely off the radar picks for Atlanta. I mentioned on another site that I was one of the team doctors for Desoto Central High School when Austin was drafted. Everything I heard at that time was that Austin would be at Mississippi State. Atlanta taking him was straight out of the dark.
 
This year I'm going to do a better job of tracking what sites predict for the Braves. There are so many conflicting reports about who the Braves like and don't like. Some say the Braves love Senzel and Ray, others say they are out on them completely. Kieboom/Wentz at 40/44, or guys like Benson and Lowe at those picks.

Some of these sites are clueless, and after this draft we will know who they are.

I think we will still not know which sites are clueless after the draft. They will all be wrong about something, and those who are right about something..... well, if you write enough stuff, something is bound to be a good guess.

Coppy seems to be pretty good at saying a lot of things, without giving much away. Lots of smoke and mirrors going on here as evidenced by the fact that the predictors are all over the place on the Braves intentions.
 
There is 0% chance Lewis falls even out of the top 20 much less 40. Chalk them up as a site that you never have to visit ever again.

I see no way possible that the Braves will get Pint and Lewis, outside of the Braves getting another slot position. But I disagree with you on Lewis falling. If he is there at #3, the Braves could easily make a deal with him for 5.2 million. The only team left that would be able to get him would be #4 the Brewers and that would use that entire slot value. Slot value for #5 is 4.3 and that is just too much for any team to make up. We would also have the luxury of seeing who the Reds picked at #2 and if they are to over slot at #thirty whatever they have..

so the Braves could draft 15th BPA at #3 for 3 million, while at the same time cut a deal with Lewis for 5.2 million and tell him to let other teams know he won't sign for less than 5.5 million.

Not saying anything like that will happen, but Lewis can most definitely 'FALL' to 40
 
Keith Law said on Buster Olney's podcast that if it goes Puk-Lewis at the top like he expects, we'd decide between Groome and Ray. He says our scouting department has been in love with Groome since the fall, but Coppy likely wants a college bat. He said it could be an interesting draft room discussion.
 
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