- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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6 toughest HS signs, according to Callis/Mayo:

1. Blake Rutherford (UCLA)
2. Matt Manning (Loyola)
3. Joey Wentz (Virginia)
4. Jared Horn (Cal)
5. Drew Mendoza (Florida State)
6. Will Benson (from Westminster, Atlanta)
 
After reading everything I can find on the top guys over the past few weeks, I think I'm most comfortable with Senzel. I think the Reds will take him at 2 though. If he's gone, I'd be tempted to go with Anderson at 3 if he can be had WAY under slot so we can go nuts at 40 and 44.
 
I think if Lewis' contact rates are legit not great, in such a small conference with few draftees, it might be a big deal. If his contact isn't great against 85 MPH, what's it gonna be when everyone throws 95+?
 
Not understanding the aversion to either Senzel or Ray. I like Lewis, but if there is a sense he's got contact issues, that could be a killer. I don't buy the competition level thing, but his situation reminds me a little of Michael Tucker's, who was the #10 overall pick in 1992. Great small college hitter (and I mean great) with just about the prettiest LH-swing who rocketed up the draft board but never quite put it together as a major leaguer.

Hey, projection is a crapshoot, so if it's Lewis, I'm fine with it. Time to trust the scouts.
 
50PoundHead said:
Not understanding the aversion to either Senzel or Ray. I like Lewis, but if there is a sense he's got contact issues, that could be a killer. I don't buy the competition level thing, but his situation reminds me a little of Michael Tucker's, who was the #10 overall pick in 1992. Great small college hitter (and I mean great) with just about the prettiest LH-swing who rocketed up the draft board but never quite put it together as a major leaguer.

Hey, projection is a crapshoot, so if it's Lewis, I'm fine with it. Time to trust the scouts.
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Just read the FG article on Lewis and small school k%. I can chalk a bit of it up to not getting much to hit (the walks), and a bit of it to his still developing skill set. He hit pretty well vs UGA and GT, so its not all smoke and mirrors. I'd probably be pretty happy with the pick honestly.
 
People point to Lewis perhaps not hitting 95, but again, he was great in the Cape. He's proven it, even in a relatively small sample, against legit pitching.
 
smootness said:
I could talk myself into Senzel. This is not a Jason Hursh or Sean Gilmartin we're talking about.
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Yeah, I feel like some are coming away with the wrong idea on Senzel. There's an assumption that his high floor is code for "low upside". If he truly has quieted doubts on defense, we're looking at a really nice player.

Ultimately, all the reporting seems to be that the Braves are looking to cut a pre-draft deal. Given what they're seeking to do with their subsequent picks, they almost have to go this route to confidently go over slot at 40 and 44. To do this, they'll have to be at peace with the possibility that they may not be able to get their top guy at #3 in order to maximize the subsequent picks. It's not a BPA aproach, but I think it's the right approach in this system.
 
I'm fine with cutting a deal at #3, as long as the talent there is still significant (which it should be) and we're actually able to get the guy(s) we're targeting at 40/44. There's always a chance someone else drafts the guy you're hoping falls; there's nothing in place to keep it from happening, even if you think you have a deal with the player.
 
smootness said:
I'm fine with cutting a deal at #3, as long as the talent there is still significant (which it should be) and we're actually able to get the guy(s) we're targeting at 40/44. There's always a chance someone else drafts the guy you're hoping falls; there's nothing in place to keep it from happening, even if you think you have a deal with the player.
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and there are 2 or 3 teams that can do this.

Reds and Friars can mess with us at 40 and the Reds and Phils at 44.. I am very worried about this...
 
Count me in with those concerned about the strategy. If it works then I'll be very glad, but if it doesn't then I we all have cause to be upset.
 
Like this approach. We have an ace in the hole at 3, and the college bats we're negotiating with know it.

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