Swanson
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
I think he'll just gradually bring his numbers up, I don't think he's about to go on a tear or anything. Of course, I hope he does, but I think he'll just start getting the luck of the bounce a little more and slowly bring his numbers up to respectability.
Unless he improves his K rate or starts hitting with more pop, I don't expect his final numbers to be particularly good. But I do think he can end up with a decent year.
Unless he improves his K rate or starts hitting with more pop, I don't expect his final numbers to be particularly good. But I do think he can end up with a decent year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
BABIP will eventually normalize to something in the .300-.320 range.
I think the 25% strikeout rate is more of an issue. Without significant power, a 25% strikeout rate translates to fairly mediocre offensive numbers (less than .700 OPS).
Watching him the last two series, it seems to me his swing with two strikes needs to be cut down a bit. I'm surprised to see a player with a supposedly advanced mental approach take such big hacks with two strikes.
I think the 25% strikeout rate is more of an issue. Without significant power, a 25% strikeout rate translates to fairly mediocre offensive numbers (less than .700 OPS).
Watching him the last two series, it seems to me his swing with two strikes needs to be cut down a bit. I'm surprised to see a player with a supposedly advanced mental approach take such big hacks with two strikes.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
He will get over it eventually. Heywood had several seasons starting like this.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
^agreed^
Tapate50
Well-known member
Barrel More Ball \ Make Pitch
His LD% is down from 22.7% to 17.3%. His FB% is up from 30.9% to 37.0%. His IFFB% doubled from 3.3% to 6.7%. His HR/FB is down from 10% to 6.7%.
He is hitting less line drives, more infield flies (which are basically Ks), more fly balls, and less of those fly balls are leaving the park.
Part of it may be bad luck, but his batted ball profile shows he simply isn't a good hitter right now.
He is hitting less line drives, more infield flies (which are basically Ks), more fly balls, and less of those fly balls are leaving the park.
Part of it may be bad luck, but his batted ball profile shows he simply isn't a good hitter right now.
On the other hand, he has one of the lowest Soft Hit% in the Majors right now.
msstate7
Well-known member
Saw all that... his soft contact is down, med up, and hard down from last season. Not sure how to interpret all that. Without knowing (and unwilling to look) league avgs, it seems swanson's soft contact rate at 13.6% seems good anyway
There are about 5 different xBABIP equations floating around, but none of them seem to be listed on a player's page. The best/latest one appears to be this one:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gettin-shifty-with-it-introducing-the-new-xbabip/
It includes adjustments for how often guys are shifted against and then hit into that shift. Unfortunately, even calculating xBABIP for a single player requires more work than I'm willing to do in the morning.
The previous version doesn't take shift data into account, but that might be OK for Swanson's case since he is more of a spray hitter that isn't shifted against:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/hitter-xbabip-v20-a-long-needed-update/
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
You all are giving me a headache with all these new stats
Based on the equation that doesn't use shift data, his xBABIP this year is .263. Not good, but obviously much better than his current BABIP of .203.
Using his xBABIP, his xBA becomes .207 and his xOBP is .282, unless I calculated something wrong. Then, even if you're generous and give him a 2B on one of the 5 extra hits he should have, his xSLG becomes .279.
So .207/.282/.279. So yeah, not good. He hasn't been good. But his numbers are at least suppressed some beyond where they should be, and he needs to start hitting a lot better.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
Just make barrels. Watch Neck. Neck make some barrels. Watch Freddie. Freddie make more barrels. More barrels than Jack Daniels. More barrels than Saudi Arabia.
So luck or no luck, he has stunk.
Can you run similar values for last year? Seems he got a bit lucky based on what I have read.
Based on my calculations, his xBABIP last year was .335, compared to his actual BABIP of .383. So adjusting for that, he would have 4.5 fewer hits, giving him an xBA of .267 and an xOBP of .330. I'm not entirely sure how to calculate xSLG because I assume you have to calculate XBH rates and such, but 7 of his 36 non-HR hits were 2B, so taking away 1 seems fair. So taking away 3.5 singles and 1 2B gives you an xSLG of .399.
So a slash line of .267/.330/.399 is roughly what you could expect with a normalized BABIP last year.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I'm not sure we are watching baseball when the Braves play. It's something else entirely.
It's called "batting practice"....