Swanson
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is interesting to look at his numbers so far in May.
The BABIP has normalized to .316.
The walk rate has jumped sharply 21.6%, helped undoubtedly by hitting in the eight spot.
Yet his OPS remains an anemic .593.
The obstacle to his becoming a productive hitter is the strikeout rate. 27% in May. Just a little higher than what is has been so far in his major league career. This is what he has to bring under control Watching him the last few series, it is clear to me he has to cut down his swing with two strikes. Become more of a Punch and Judy hitter with two strikes. I also think he takes too many good pitches early in the count. He needs to jump on those more aggressively.
The BABIP will bounce up and down from month to month. He will have occasional spikes of power. But we need to look past all that and focus on the strikeout rate. He has to bring that down to become a productive major league hitter.
The BABIP has normalized to .316.
The walk rate has jumped sharply 21.6%, helped undoubtedly by hitting in the eight spot.
Yet his OPS remains an anemic .593.
The obstacle to his becoming a productive hitter is the strikeout rate. 27% in May. Just a little higher than what is has been so far in his major league career. This is what he has to bring under control Watching him the last few series, it is clear to me he has to cut down his swing with two strikes. Become more of a Punch and Judy hitter with two strikes. I also think he takes too many good pitches early in the count. He needs to jump on those more aggressively.
The BABIP will bounce up and down from month to month. He will have occasional spikes of power. But we need to look past all that and focus on the strikeout rate. He has to bring that down to become a productive major league hitter.
Yep. That, and hit with at least a little pop. Both of which I think he will do.
msstate7
Well-known member
Swanson by month since call up...
August: .279/.319/.326, 6.4% bb 19.1 k
Sept: .313/.378/.500, 9.9 bb 25.3 k
April: .156/.200/.233, 5.3 bb 25.2 k
May: .286/.403/.449, 17.7 bb 27.4 k
Obviously we're dealing with SSS, but could this indicate Swanson is a slow starter? It appears as his bb rate goes, so goes he
August: .279/.319/.326, 6.4% bb 19.1 k
Sept: .313/.378/.500, 9.9 bb 25.3 k
April: .156/.200/.233, 5.3 bb 25.2 k
May: .286/.403/.449, 17.7 bb 27.4 k
Obviously we're dealing with SSS, but could this indicate Swanson is a slow starter? It appears as his bb rate goes, so goes he
Southcack77
Well-known member
It just wasn't all that many at bats of struggling.
The K issue is ultimately going to decide his career for him, I guess.
msstate7
Well-known member
In his good months, he ops'd at .878 (sept '16) and .852 (current). In each of those months, he K'd over 25%. If he can ops at .800 and walks around 10%, that would be perfectly fine even with the Ks, wouldn't it? I'm assuming he cleans up the sloppy defense
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
I think that showing better selectivity and laying off some of that heavy diet of sliders was a helpful adjustment, and I'm sure it's contributed to his resurgence. I have to say, though, that batting eighth has probably had something to do with the increased walk rate, as well. Still, it's great to see him picking it up.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He's had 300 career plate appearances in the majors now. While not a large sample, his overall career numbers probably provide the best picture of who he is as a hitter.
.246/.316/.384 with a 9.6% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate.
The walk rate will probably be a bit higher as long as he stays in the 8 spot.
Career BABIP so far is .316, which seems about right.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
I agree that he will be ok if he can get his K% down. I don't think the problems he is having can be solved by sending him to AAA. AAA will just mask the problem. Most likely he would see maybe one pitcher a night that could really challenge him. I'm sure he would be hitting at a high level if he was in AAA this year and no one would know he couldn't hit a slider.
In general that usually is the issue for players like Swanson. Above average walk rate and moderate power. A high K% will make them mediocre at best. Get that into the upper teens and they will be good hitters. Lower that into the low teens and your looking at players like Jeter.
Given that he wasn't hitting at a high level in AA when he was called up last year this is clearly not a logical conclusion. Not that I want him sent down to AAA, it'd be nearly pointless at this juncture, but acting like he wasn't being challenged in the minors is complete BS.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Albies is probably learning as much in AAA this year as Swanson is learning in the majors. The main difference is the non-trivial matter of service time.
msstate7
Well-known member
Not so sure... other notable sec rookies (renfroe and bregman) are struggling at MLB level after dominating AAA. Even bientendi is falling on hard times lately
Exactly. The majors are just a completely different game. There is no recipe for success. You either have it or you don't.
I would't say Bregman is struggling. He is essentially a league average hitter right now without having much to show in terms of power which most people says he has. His 8.9% walk rate and 18.4% K rate is very encouraging.
msstate7
Well-known member
Ops down .093 from last season and .314 from AAA. His ops is about like Garcia's has been
Bregman had a whopping 78 ABs in AAA, and his numbers are actually better across the board from last year in the majors except for his power. Which I doubt he stays at a .100 ISO all year. He's actually an example of someone who should have stayed in AAA for a while longer I'd say, much like Swanson. Anyone can have a 100 AB hot streak and put up insane numbers in short stretches.
Including Renfroe as an example in this discussion is a bit off I'd say, he struggled in the minors for years before breaking out last year, and had major swing and miss issues even then. He's always been a huge bust candidate, which is why he's never been higher than a 40ish ranked prospect.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
I predict that Bregman will never reach the lofty power expectations that many have put on him. The only time he's shown any HR power was in extreme hitters' parks in the Astros' system. He had about the same HR power as Swanson in college.
Which is about what should be expected of him. They are both 15ish HR power kind of guys, though Bregman probably has a smidge more upside. Who was predicting Bregman to be more than that though? Most the scouting reports I've seen on him had him in the 50-55 power range.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
I don't remember anyone specifically, but there was a lot of talk about Bregman being a potential big power guy based on the numbers he put up in the minors.
You probably saw him play in college as much as I did. I agree with your assessment of his power potential.