nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If Minor inked an extension, I don't think much would change the 2017 scenario I laid out. But it would have implications for years beyond. It would push us to 135-140M in 2018, even with BJ's contract expiring.
Talkin' 'bout all extensions thread
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
If Minor inked an extension, I don't think much would change the 2017 scenario I laid out. But it would have implications for years beyond. It would push us to 135-140M in 2018, even with BJ's contract expiring.
I'm telling you guys the Braves are playing the Heyward thing the right way. I believe they seen what they thought they had in him last year until the freakish injuries slowed him down. I believe they wanted to see him do his thing for an entire year before committing to him long term. I thought this at the time of the two year deal and I think all of these long term deals that have been done solidifies that opinion even more. If Heyward plays at the level he is capable then next year at this time he will be locked up for a long long time. Go Braves!!!!!!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I agree. If he puts up a 5 WAR season, he'll get paid 22-25M/year, a bit more than Freddie. And that'll take us to a payroll of about 125M by 2017. Braves execs have indicated that the new stadium will produce an increase in revenues and payroll, but no one has ventured an estimate. I think 125M is a reasonable guess for 2017, but it is nothing more than that. If that number is correct, however, signing Heyward will probably preclude any significant additional moves (unless we move someone with a significant contract).
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Agreed. All one needs to do is look and see how Chuck James, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Anthony Lerew, ect. all bombed to see that a whole wave of starting pitchers can indeed all bomb and not pan out and how it can immediately leave a negative effect on your team.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Exactly. Heyward will be with the Braves for a long-time either way. If he performs this year and stays on the field for 150 games then he gets paid major bucks. If he doesn't then the Braves get a major discount on him. It's a win-win deal for both sides by playing out this year and talking next off-season.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There is risk all around. Established starters get hurt or decline.
There are data on the success/bust rate of pitching prospects. You listed some of the busts. But in general if you are looking prospects of the caliber of Sims, Hursh, Cabrera, Graham, Hale, Parsons, Martin about 20-30% will pan out. I think it is a reasonable operating assumption that we will generate two major league starters from the current group of prospects. Failure to regularly replenish your team with younger cheaper players is what leads the kind of situations that a team like the Phillies is facing. Except we wouldn't have the financial resources to try to paper things over like the Phillies are trying to do.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
We could have easily kept Sheffield. I think not re-signing him ranks as Schuerholz' biggest single mistake, and that includes the Texeira deal.
Agreed, and the domino effect was equally as lethal as the Tex trade.
JD Drew
Adam Wainright
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I don't know if either Uggla or La Stella could play 3B. Uggla played some 3B in the minors, but it's harder to hide a guy at 3B than it is at 2B and, let's face it, Uggla plays "bat." I generally agree with the sentiment. There was obviously a reason why they tried Terdoslavich at 3B in Gwinnett a couple years ago, but that experiment failed. No one knows if Salcedo or Kubitza is going to develop and those guys are both probably two years away. That would require us to scour the high minors and big league benches for someone to fill in around the core. For some reason, good utility guys who play an adequate 3B and can hit are difficult to find.
Agree that Polanco is not an answer to any serious question.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Pena is our backup third baseman. If Chris Johnson was out for a while, we would probably platoon someone with Pena at third. Maybe Pastornicky. Salcedo and Tyler Greene would be a couple other possibilities.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I agree. I'm just saying it is possible for an entire wave to bomb. What happened to the Braves, over the course of that 3 year period, when all those guys I mentioned came up and then all bombed was highly unlikely. Odds would have told us that 1 or 2 of them would have turned into successful MLB starting pitchers. But none of them did. Morton has been decent since we shipped him to the Pirates though.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think the point is we aren't in any position to move Johnson as someone suggested earlier in the thread.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Did the Braves even try to keep Sheff? Sheff was going into his age 35 season too. Sheff's deal with the Yankees was 3 years for $39M at a time when Time Warner was drastically cutting payroll. If you remember, Time Warner cut the Braves payroll from will into the $100Ms all the way down to around $80M over the course of just a few years. How can you say the Braves could have kept Sheffield when the previous offseason they were forced to trade Kevin Millwood because of Greg Maddux accepting arbitration?
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
The Sheffield negotiations were bizarre to say the least. JS and the organization showed little to no interest and really didn't have any contact at all with Sheff's agent through the initial stages of the FA period. At that point in time, Sheffield was getting little interest from only a few clubs despite having an MVP type season in 2003 with us, probably most teams shyed away because of his past. All the buzz and interest at that point in time was for Vlad Guerrero. With very few options on the table at that time, and JS and Atlanta showing little to no interest, Sheffield actually initiated contact with Steinbrenner about possibly joining the Yanks. The Yanks FO only wanted to do a one year deal at round 13 million, Sheffield refused, but Steinbrenner interveined and upped the ante and offered him 3 years 39 million. While the Yanks and Sheffield were in the final stages of negotiations and it was apparent that Sheffield was going to go to New York, basically everything was agreed to except Sheff signing on the dotted line, JS swoped in and offered Sheff a 4 year 40 million dollar contract.
At that time I was really puzzled once again what JS and the organization had in mind. Did JS at that time finally have a deal in place to move some other players to be able to offer Shef or was it just another PR stunt on JS's part to save face for himself for refusing to keep in contact with Sheff or the organization by saying we gave him a competitive offer blah, blah, blah or did JS move on right away in the FA period thinking that Sheff was definately going to price himself out of what we could afford. Sheff was a great player and had little to no problems in the clubhouse with Bobby at the helm. We had no viable options in place to replace Sheff's productivity, and this prompted us overpaying for JD Drew and the series of events that cost this organization dearly over the next decade.
It's all revisionist history, but I believe if JS would have done his due dillegence at the time and had any type of dialogue at all early on in the FA period, Sheff wanted to and probably would have stayed with us and settled on a deal somewhere in between what our offer was and what the Yanks deal was. (Say 3 years, 36 million)
At that time I was really puzzled once again what JS and the organization had in mind. Did JS at that time finally have a deal in place to move some other players to be able to offer Shef or was it just another PR stunt on JS's part to save face for himself for refusing to keep in contact with Sheff or the organization by saying we gave him a competitive offer blah, blah, blah or did JS move on right away in the FA period thinking that Sheff was definately going to price himself out of what we could afford. Sheff was a great player and had little to no problems in the clubhouse with Bobby at the helm. We had no viable options in place to replace Sheff's productivity, and this prompted us overpaying for JD Drew and the series of events that cost this organization dearly over the next decade.
It's all revisionist history, but I believe if JS would have done his due dillegence at the time and had any type of dialogue at all early on in the FA period, Sheff wanted to and probably would have stayed with us and settled on a deal somewhere in between what our offer was and what the Yanks deal was. (Say 3 years, 36 million)
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
That's pretty much as I remember it and you have more details than I recall. The "lousy economics of baseball" was Schuerholz' mantra during that little stretch and he didn't bother offering Sheffield arbitration, which was totally illogical if he wasn't going to make an honest effort to sign him. I thought the Braves' last offer was for 3 years and about a million per year less than the Yankees. I was under the impression that Schuerholz believed that whatever his offer, the Yankees would go a million or two more. He didn't push the issue with Sheffield at all.
I wonder what JS would think about the economics of baseball today.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Goodness your memory is insane. But I actually now remember that it was Sheff that reached out to the Yankees and The Boss. JS let his own pride get in the way the last few years he was GM and he actually hurt the Braves a lot.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
JS's pride was hurt after losing AROD at the last minute to Texas and the Maddux-Millwood fiasco and basically he had the attitude that he was not going to deal and have dialect with agents unless the players initiated the contact and interest. And JS was bound and determined to do whatever it took to put competitive teams on the field and stick it to those agents.
While the economics certainly changed at that time, with player salaries reaching astronomical values at that time along with the Braves financial constraints, we had very few negotiations with FAs during that period of time but lots of players were acquired via trades.
Who was our biggest FA signee during that period? Paul byrd, John Thomson, Roberto Hernandez, Jordan, Mondesi?
Meanwhile Drew, King, Soriano, Gonzalez, Kolb, Wickman, Reitsma, Renteria, Mercker, Ortiz, Hampton, Hudson, Baez and others were acquired via trades for minor leaguers.
JS made no attempt to negotiate or keep our own FAs from Sheffield, Lopez, Glavine, Remlinger, Drew, Druw, and Furcal. The only ones that were retained in that period was Smoltz, Holmes, Franco, and Chippers and Andruws extension as well as Hudson's extension when he was acquired.
JS was horrible during this time and a weak NL east filled with incompetent front offices and the baby Braves saved JSs face more than anything.
While the economics certainly changed at that time, with player salaries reaching astronomical values at that time along with the Braves financial constraints, we had very few negotiations with FAs during that period of time but lots of players were acquired via trades.
Who was our biggest FA signee during that period? Paul byrd, John Thomson, Roberto Hernandez, Jordan, Mondesi?
Meanwhile Drew, King, Soriano, Gonzalez, Kolb, Wickman, Reitsma, Renteria, Mercker, Ortiz, Hampton, Hudson, Baez and others were acquired via trades for minor leaguers.
JS made no attempt to negotiate or keep our own FAs from Sheffield, Lopez, Glavine, Remlinger, Drew, Druw, and Furcal. The only ones that were retained in that period was Smoltz, Holmes, Franco, and Chippers and Andruws extension as well as Hudson's extension when he was acquired.
JS was horrible during this time and a weak NL east filled with incompetent front offices and the baby Braves saved JSs face more than anything.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
Good GM, yes. Great GM, no. Overrated, absolutely.