Tankathon draft pick watch

thewupk said:
Not sure how that changes for teams not able to get a top 10 pick if they have one of the worst records
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Yeah. It wouldn’t make sense for those teams to change the odds. Just stack them behind the other lottery teams in the order of record. But don’t alter the odds for the lottery teams.
 
lwj10jr said:
wait, thats not true. the tankathon link shows the odds
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Yeah. It looks like if a team that would normally be in the lottery can't get a pick then their odds are distributed to the rest of the teams. Last year the Rockies and Marlins both had a 22.5% chance. Seems that if the Braves can get to a bottom 3 record they would increase their odds to the same as the White Sox.
 
The link I posted literally had the top pick probability listed for each team. There’s no reason to speculate…it tells you the answer.

There’s Braves currently have a 20% chance at pick 1.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
So I have probably ran the thing about 50 times and the Braves have not been higher than 7th. So naturally that means they will end up picking 9th of course.
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With the current standings I think the worst the team could pick is technically 8th. That's if somehow the Sox and Braves both miss out on the top 6 lottery. The odds of that do exist but are very small.
 
thewupk said:
With the current standings I think the worst the team could pick is technically 8th. That's if somehow the Sox and Braves both miss out on the top 6 lottery. The odds of that do exist but are very small.
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I am not pretending to understand this really. It looks like Miami and San Fran are lock into the 8th and 9th spot and 1-7 are the sims model roulette. Not sure why that is.. but anything in the top 5 should be a good thing imo.
 
never mind. Miami and San Fran do bounce around a little. But again, it seems the Braves if they can maintain their position or improve it, would be at least a top 7 pick.. but much more likely to be higher..
 
7th as worst case still gives us a very good pick but we need to be top 3 as it is trending towards that way. I'm a Patriots fan and us beating the Bills the last game of the season cost us the 1 pick and getting Travis in the draft. So it sucks rooting for us to lose out but that is where we are at now and the best way to help the team moving forward.
 
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