The 2018 Midterms

Julio3000 said:
But you chose 6. Got it.
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I chose +6 because it came from the most recent, most respected poll. And because it was supported by significant late-trending in polling (including multiple reports of GOP internal polling tightening significantly after Trump's rally/campaigning).

You chose +2. And that includes Gravis ... which is basically a paid Republican polling company.
 
sturg33 said:
Just like 2010, the opposition party will have a massive victory in the midterms.

Nothing new there
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Party in the White House doing poorly in the mid-terms is the closest thing we have to an iron law of American politics.

However, there is a difference...a big one...between losing 20 seats and losing 80. We'll have to see how that shakes out.
 
Hawk said:
That's not reflected here.
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right, him being unpopular means nothing to these elections. nothing at all. just a coincidence all of these dark red seats are becoming close or flipping.

i like when trumpers keep thinking this way. let's keep it going.
 
Matthew Yglesias
‏Verified account @mattyglesias
9h9 hours ago

MONDAY SPIN: Lamb is a tax-hiking, gun-grabbing Pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter your unborn children.

WEDNESDAY SPIN: Look, he’s basically a Republican.
 
Daniel Jacobson
‏ @Dan_F_Jacobson

BIG NEWS:

The U.S. Supreme Court just denied the stay

application in our PA gerrymandering case!

The new map will be in effect for the 2018 elections!
 
thethe said:
So now you get your mapping plus illegals voting. Welcome to america!
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gonna be a tsunami

i hope the democrats realize that it does not actually represent a mandate for their ideological agenda

if they were smart they would not try to do much

if they were smart they would not go for impeachment

what they should do is simply hold public hearings...lots of them and let the public draw the appropriate conclusions...

this likely would lead to a democratic sweep in 2020...white house...veto proof majority in both houses

it is not what i would like to see happen...i don't want the democrats to have such control over the levers of political power...but i think this is likely to be the coda to Trump's term as president...and yes it will be term singular
 
nsacpi said:
gonna be a tsunami

i hope the democrats realize that it does not actually represent a mandate for their ideological agenda

if they were smart they would not try to do much

if they were smart they would not go for impeachment

what they should do is simply hold public hearings...lots of them and let the public draw the appropriate conclusions...

this likely would lead to a democratic sweep in 2020...white house...veto proof majority in both houses

it is not what i would like to see happen...i don't want the democrats to have such control over the levers of political power...but i think this is likely to be the coda to Trump's term as president...and yes it will be term singular
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I agree. I don't think Democrats get a super majority in congress though. Whoever democrats run will be literally Hitler to the right. I believe if Trump makes it atleast 2 years and Pence takes over he could run for 2 more full terms. My guess is si me former boyfriends come out if Pence makes it President.
 
I think the Dems take the House. Some system-shocking event could keep it from happening (or, in the other direction, make it a tsunami) but I think it's nearly inevitable. The healthy economy may keep it from being a historic blowout, but it's going to be a pretty big hit. Senate is another story. Ds have too much to defend and not enough to attack.

The next two years are going to be a lot like the Clinton years. Nonstop hearings and investigations. The chairs of the Oversight and Judiciary committees are going to be on TV more than Big Bang Theory reruns. At some point a Clinton-esque scandal fatigue may set in, but it wasn't until WJC's second term that it really mattered. Trump's not going to have that luxury. Trump is either going to go full Clinton (defend against political attacks but triangulate on policy) or stay the full Trump course, which is likely to end in a smoking crater.
 
Hawk said:
There is a long, long way to go until November.
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which is actually not a positive for the Republicans...the historical record shows that the party in the White House loses ground in the polling for generic preferences over the course of the calendar year in which mid-terms are held
 
Julio3000 said:
I think the Dems take the House. Some system-shocking event could keep it from happening (or, in the other direction, make it a tsunami) but I think it's nearly inevitable. The healthy economy may keep it from being a historic blowout, but it's going to be a pretty big hit. Senate is another story. Ds have too much to defend and not enough to attack.

The next two years are going to be a lot like the Clinton years. Nonstop hearings and investigations. The chairs of the Oversight and Judiciary committees are going to be on TV more than Big Bang Theory reruns. At some point a Clinton-esque scandal fatigue may set in, but it wasn't until WJC's second term that it really mattered. Trump's not going to have that luxury. Trump is either going to go full Clinton (defend against political attacks but triangulate on policy) or stay the full Trump course, which is likely to end in a smoking crater.
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Senate could go either way in 2018. In 2020 the math is flipped and the Dems are likely to make big gains maybe yuge gains in the Senate.
 
Hawk said:
There is a long, long way to go until November.
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Yeah, there certainly is. Predictions, mine included, are pretty worthless right now. And there are now-unknowable things that could and likely will happen between now and then. But I think typical midterm retrenchment plus particular anti-Trump engagement is going to be enough to flip the House.

Military action could shake things up. A major terrorist attack, maybe. Trump pulls a diplomatic rabbit out of the hat on the Korean Peninsula. There's a major international scandal involving overseas money that tars either or both parties...who knows? But with Trump and Congressional Rs at best treading water in a good economy, I don't think the tea leaves look great for their prospects. My sense is that the there's not much in the pipeline that is going to help Trump, and a lot that may hurt. If the election is a referendum on the president, I think it's going to have some teeth.
 
nsacpi said:
which is actually not a positive for the Republicans...the historical record shows that the party in the White House loses ground in the polling over the course of the calendar year in which mid-terms are held
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If there was ever an administration possessive of the moxie to necessary to defy "the historical record" it would be this one.

Julio makes mention of system-shocking events. I can think of three imminent ones that should completely unravel, in one way or the other, between now and the mid-terms.
 
Hawk said:
If there was ever an administration possessive of the moxie to necessary to defy "the historical record" it would be this one.

Julio makes mention of system-shocking events. I can think of three imminent ones that should completely unravel, in one way or the other, between now and the mid-terms.
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not gonna happen
 
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