The 2020 Draft Thread

50PoundHead said:
Wow! He was bad! -4.1 bWAR for his career. Adding insult to injury, we have the same birthday. He was born the day I turned 16.
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Yeah, I knew Jarvis wasn't very good, but the negative WAR and career ERA over 6 were still pretty striking. Not sure how he hung around for 12 years - he never had one of those flukey good years that can keep a player in the league for years (he was kinda sorta OK in 2001, but that was his career highlight), and it's not like he was some elite prospect with a great draft pedigree.
 
I will believe that when I see it. Now if there are any low ceiling college players, we need more of those. Specifically in the top rounds.
 
Looks like Baseball America has us taking Jarvis at 25. He definitely seems to be the player mocked to us the most.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I will believe that when I see it. Now if there are any low ceiling college players, we need more of those. Specifically in the top rounds.
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Exactly how high a ceiling do you expect to get picking 25th??? You really think there's a Trout-like situation waiting to happen in every draft?

Callis links the Dodgers to Kelley at #29 - with emphasis on how big a coup that would be.

I've said since the draft became the jumbled mess it's going to be this year that I can see most teams near the top taking less chances, but I just can't see any of the top 3 HS arms falling as far as our pick - much less to the Dodgers. If we passed on Kelley (given the high unlikelihood he would even be there), it's almost impossible to imagine Oakland, Minnesota, or the Yankees doing so behind us.
 
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CJ9 said:
Looks like Baseball America has us taking Jarvis at 25. He definitely seems to be the player mocked to us the most.
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From BA's blurb...

"Jarvis checks both analytical boxes and traditional scouting boxes, which may be a fit for Atlanta’s process."

Add the consideration that he might agree to an underslot deal given his age and it makes plenty of sense that they have him there.
 
CJ9 said:
Looks like Baseball America has us taking Jarvis at 25. He definitely seems to be the player mocked to us the most.
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Also FWIW, BA has seriously jumbled things up - now mocking Veen to Baltimore underslot at #2 as well as having Kelley still there for the Orioles to scoop up at #30.

Talk about hitting the lottery if that happens. :facepalm:
 
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TheBravos said:
So, if we gained a comp pick and lost one...what was the other pick we lost if we only have four?
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We lost two picks - one for signing Smith, one for signing Ozuna. That would have put us at 3.

We gained a pick for losing Donaldson. Leaving us with 4.
 
clvclv said:
We lost two picks - one for signing Smith, one for signing Ozuna. That would have put us at 3.

We gained a pick for losing Donaldson. Leaving us with 4.
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Oh yeah...forgot about Smith.

Still, it’s crazy that you can lose two high draft picks for signing two players. What if you are a bad team and have no free agents lost, but want to go out and improve your team (which is good for baseball)....then you are penalized for doing it. I like the way the NFL does it. You get a comp pick if you lose a important player, but it doesn’t cost you a draft pick to sign a player.

That is just bull crap to lose two of your top five draft picks for two mid level salary players. Good grief.
 
CJ9 said:
Pipeline mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-3?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

25. Braves: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
The stuff is there, though there’s not a lot of history because of injuries. This could be a real steal.
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FG - "Up to 97, above avg slider, relief fit due to command, loud summer in California Collegiate League. Missed 2019 with TJ. Eligible as a redshirt sophomore in 2020."

BA - "Beeter’s pitch data and his performance early this spring (2.14 ERA, 14.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9) has him as one of the biggest risers in the country. Teams seem more optimistic about his health as he’s gotten further away from Tommy John surgery and scouts and quants alike both love how his fastball and curveball play."

Law - "Beeter might have worked his way into the first half of the round had the season continued, but as it is, some teams’ models have his hammer curveball as the best pitch in the draft, which puts him in the mix for an analytics-focused team like the Twins."


BA has him at #27 to the Twins, FG has him at #15 to the Phillies (#19 on their board), Law has him at #27 to the Twins.
 
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Longenhagen says he thinks we take a college arm at 25. Mentions Jarvis and Christian Roa, who I haven’t seen anyone mention connected to us. 6-4 RHP from Texas A&M.

FG has him 34th on their board: “Worked low-90's last spring with a starter look at times, has been up to 96 in the fall and seems primed to break out.”

Pipeline has him 89th, yikes: “After an impressive fall and a pair of dominant starts in which he averaged two strikeouts per inning to open 2020, Roa started generating top-three-round buzz. His stuff and command fell off against better competition in his next two outings before the season abruptly ended, leaving clubs unsure what exactly to make of him. Nevertheless, he and projected top-five-overall pick Asa Lacy give Texas A&M its best lefty-righty prospect duo since Chance Caple and Casey Fossum went in the first 48 selections in 1999.

Roa initially sat at 92-94 mph with his fastball this spring, peaking at 96 with some armside run before his heater lost a couple of ticks of velocity and straightened out. All three of his secondary pitches are at least solid when he's at his best. Scouts debate whether his hard 11-5 curveball or fading, sinking changeup is better, while his low-80s slider is his least consistent offering.

Roa has thrown strikes throughout his college career, averaging 2.0 walks per nine innings until issuing eight free passes in nine frames in his final two starts. Even before his late downturn, his control was significantly ahead of his command, so he'll have to do a better job of locating his pitches. He uses his strong 6-foot-4 build and an overhand delivery to create difficult downhill angle.”
 
clvclv said:
Exactly how high a ceiling do you expect to get picking 25th??? You really think there's a Trout-like situation waiting to happen in every draft?

Callis links the Dodgers to Kelley at #29 - with emphasis on how big a coup that would be.

I've said since the draft became the jumbled mess it's going to be this year that I can see most teams near the top taking less chances, but I just can't see any of the top 3 HS arms falling as far as our pick - much less to the Dodgers. If we passed on Kelley (given the high unlikelihood he would even be there), it's almost impossible to imagine Oakland, Minnesota, or the Yankees doing so behind us.
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Ceiling can be a bit tricky to define because often times we take a player with a huge glaring flaw like Cody Johnson and say "well if he ever learns to make contact he will be great". I am not a huge believer in drafting college players unless they are extremely good. We aren't talking about 17-18 year old at that point. They are 21-22.
 
clvclv said:
FG - "Up to 97, above avg slider, relief fit due to command, loud summer in California Collegiate League. Missed 2019 with TJ. Eligible as a redshirt sophomore in 2020."

BA - "Beeter’s pitch data and his performance early this spring (2.14 ERA, 14.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9) has him as one of the biggest risers in the country. Teams seem more optimistic about his health as he’s gotten further away from Tommy John surgery and scouts and quants alike both love how his fastball and curveball play."

Law - "Beeter might have worked his way into the first half of the round had the season continued, but as it is, some teams’ models have his hammer curveball as the best pitch in the draft, which puts him in the mix for an analytics-focused team like the Twins."


BA has him at #27 to the Twins, FG has him at #15 to the Phillies (#19 on their board), Law has him at #27 to the Twins.
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Sounds like Minter.
 
A site run by someone named Madison McRae has us taking South Carolina RHP Carmen Mlodzinski. Top-level performer in the Cape Cod League in 2019, but scuffled a bit before then. Got off to a nice start in 2020 before the season was cancelled.
 
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