IslandBrave
Mashin' to Mississippi
New CBS mock draft has us taking Bryce Jarvis of Duke
The 2020 Draft Thread
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Callis has us taking Auburn RHP Tanner Burns in the first at the mlb.com site.
This is bound to be one of the hardest drafts to even get a slight handle on for fans maybe since the advent of widespread home PCs.
Law's mention that the Braves "could" be someone that goes all (or a majority) high school kids throughout makes some sense, but unless those types available are relatively local would AA really do that? Given the fact that we've always done well in our backyard one would assume our scouts will have at least some feel for the local kids, but it's hard to imagine we've seen the ones from other parts of the country more than a few times - and even those would likely be the ones at the very top of the high school lists that everybody likely has the same type of information on.
Unless one of the high school bats like Howard, Hassell, or Walker slips through or Abel, Bitsko, or Kelley are there it's tough to picture AA not taking a college arm at #25 IMO - just not sure he can gamble on a high school player they don't have plenty of info on turning into a "bust" with the shortage of players at the lower levels looming. I think you can probably take Abel and Kelley off that list too because there's a pretty good chance someone will take them in the top 20 (if not higher), so you're quickly getting down to the high schoolers with the most questions.
Last edited:
OcalaBrave
Spring Training Invitee
If there was ever a time to go high upside and not worry about the bust factor, it would seem to be the draft where scouts have a built in excuse for the busts.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Braves have picks at 25, 97, 126, 156 as I understand it.
Slot values:
25 - $2,740,300
97 - $599,100
126 - $451,800
156 - $336,600
Why not take an unlikely to sign HS at 25 and offer him slot minus 20%. That gives you an extra ~$550K to use to sign guys over slot at 97, 126, 156. As I understand it, if you don't sign your first round pick, you get a replacement next year (when presumably your scouts will have been able to see players play and when you expect a larger than normal crop of college guys, especially quite a few Seniors). Also, IIRC, after 5 rounds you can sign as many as you want for $20K each if they will sign. Also, also if they contract several minor league clubs, there will be a number of minor league FA looking for a new home.
Slot values:
25 - $2,740,300
97 - $599,100
126 - $451,800
156 - $336,600
Why not take an unlikely to sign HS at 25 and offer him slot minus 20%. That gives you an extra ~$550K to use to sign guys over slot at 97, 126, 156. As I understand it, if you don't sign your first round pick, you get a replacement next year (when presumably your scouts will have been able to see players play and when you expect a larger than normal crop of college guys, especially quite a few Seniors). Also, IIRC, after 5 rounds you can sign as many as you want for $20K each if they will sign. Also, also if they contract several minor league clubs, there will be a number of minor league FA looking for a new home.
Correct, if you don’t sign your first rounder you get a first rounder (1 spot later) in next years draft. Like what happened to us with Carter Stewart. I foresee quite a lot of under slot offers on first rounders this year. Next years first round could wind up being 50 picks or so.
New Pipeline mock has us taking Miami RHP Chris McMahon: https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-first-round-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage.
I've seen him pitch quite a bit and really like him. He's not the upside pick here, but I think he's going to be a middle rotation starter for a long time. If we're going college arm, I would be pretty happy with this.
Still think high schooler is my preferred route if the front office has enough info to take someone. Especially in a year when HS guys are going to slide, it might be smart to take a gamble on the upside since we won't be picking near the top of the draft for a while.
I've seen him pitch quite a bit and really like him. He's not the upside pick here, but I think he's going to be a middle rotation starter for a long time. If we're going college arm, I would be pretty happy with this.
Still think high schooler is my preferred route if the front office has enough info to take someone. Especially in a year when HS guys are going to slide, it might be smart to take a gamble on the upside since we won't be picking near the top of the draft for a while.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Interesting question. Don't know if there's anyone out there in the late first that would fit that category. Another caveat is that with no college season and limited spring training, it might be difficult for a college guy to make that level of jump.
Which could easily make Walker the target if he's there - especially if the rumblings Law's hearing are true.
FG - "Has the Jayson Werth/Cameron Maybin frame and some bat control. Might grow into huge power. Of interest on the mound, too, but has a chance to be special 3B bat."
BA - "The best high school third baseman in the class, Walker is a massive-framed, 6-foot-5, 220-pound slugger committed to Duke. He’s also the top-ranked prep prospect out of Georgia, which has been more pitcher-heavy than bat-heavy in recent years. Walker was one of the high school players who managed to get seen early and often during the shortened 2020 season. He performed at a high level against solid competition while all those eyes were on him. Walker has a solid feel to hit with plus raw power and plenty more projected as he grows into more strength. While there are some questions about his natural feel to hit thanks to the length of his arms and some swing-and-miss concerns, Walker has progressed in the right direction with his hit tool and could be an average or slightly better hitter. He moves remarkably well considering his size, though many scouts don’t think that will be enough to prevent a move to first base or a corner outfield spot in the future. Walker was something of a polarizing player last summer for scouts, largely thanks to questions about his profile, but he performed at the right time this spring and could go off the board at the end of the first round or shortly thereafter. Scouts praise Walker’s heady, cerebral nature and believe he could be a tough sign out of Duke, where he could elevate his draft stock with a few years of ACC performance."
Pipeline - "Arguably the best Duke baseball recruit ever, Walker is a quality student whose parents attended MIT and Harvard. The odds of him becoming a Blue Devil decreased, however, when he established himself as the top corner-infield prospect in the 2020 high school class. Georgia has produced a prep position player in the first round of 10 of the last 12 Drafts and he could join that club in June.
Walker generates easy bat speed from the right side of the plate and has tremendous leverage and projectable strength in his 6-foot-5 frame, giving him some of the best power potential in this Draft. There are some mixed opinions on his hitting ability because his size creates a naturally long swing and he needs to improve his ability to recognize breaking balls. But he also shows some feel for hitting and the ability to make adjustments, so he should make enough contact to tap into his pop.
Athletic for his size, Walker can produce some solid run times but figures to lose a step once he matures physically. He should be able to remain at third base for a while, though if he loses some quickness he'll likely wind up on an outfield corner. He has solid arm strength and has been clocked in the low 90s on the mound, so he should profile well in right field if he has to move."
If there's one team he's likely willing to pass up his Duke commitment for it's probably us (although I'd have to agree with those who think it's a bit of a stretch that even giving him full slot would be enough). He's probably going to be the high school bat with the highest upside available (assuming he's there). Roll the dice on his upside - if you can sign him, great. If you can't, adding the #26 pick next year when you have more slot money to spend wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing (as others mentioned before). I'm not sure I buy that folks in charge of the draft (or scouts) will get a pass if whomever they take at #25 turns out to be a bust, but do agree they'd have a legitimate argument as long as they take the kid with the absolute highest upside there. I like the idea of gambling the pick on Ginn if he's there, I see no reason not to do the same with Walker if they feel like they've got a good handle on him - a year from now, they could both easily profile as top 10 guys (maybe even better).
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Good analysis, but something tells me he is headed to Duke unless we'd give him pretty much all of our allotmednt. Walker appears to be a better prospect than Alonzo Jones (Columbus, GA, 2015 who was ranked in the Top 100 in most pre-draft sets) coming out of high school, but I pick up the same vibe in that his academic profile is similar and both parents are highly educated, making education seem a very high priority.
Jones is the best example given he's a local kid with parents with that type of educational background. On the flip side you've got Heyward and his Dartmouth parents.
Interesting story about the games played that ultimately landed Heyward...
https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball...eyward-the-2007-draft/86ZAHXEMMsdqOCulaY5UuL/
If Walker's a kid that "wants to be a Brave" like Heyward supposedly did, the gamble would at least make sense. The BA report about Walker mentions the fact that Georgia has been lighter on bats in recent years - I can think of several arms we've passed on, but if there's a local bat with that type of upside we're typically all over them (whether we're in position to pick them or not).
You're also in a position to spend extra money to try and land a Walker or Ginn type if they'll sign - given the fact that there are less likely to be steals that are willing to sign if they're taken in rounds 2-5 for slightly over slot bonuses ($100,000 extra as was mentioned before) - combine the money that you have to sign picks #25 and #96 and give it to a high-end talent that you've got that feeling about, and split the rest up evenly between those other three picks.
Last edited:
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I thought about Heyward as well. Interesting to see how it plays out. I'd be all for a high-ceiling/high-risk high school player if that's they way they want to go.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Can we afford to make the mistake of drafting yet another player who doesn't love baseball?