The Adam Duv-awful Thread

mfree80 said:
It would not surprise me to see him included as a smaller piece in a trade in the off season. Would kind of allow the FO to save face and say they got some value for him, while moving on.
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If they hadn't stupidly announced Ender would be platooning with him and touted getting a controllable piece then there would be no face saving needed.

I doubt we can move Duvall this offseason. If Matt Adams couldn't be moved, no one will trade for Duvall. Any team who wants him will just wait for us to non-tender him and snatch him up for half the price they'd have to pay if they traded for him and tendered him a contract.
 
He's been trash but my biggest fear is after we let Neck go in free agency like we should, of him being in a platoon in left to start the season.I think we all hope/wish that we spend on a good corner outfielder or 3rd baseman but what happens if the Braves don't spend?
Unfortunately I think that's when we see Duval on opening day in left...
 
He has been horrible of course, but he could also get hot at any time and make us forget.

Remember how absolutely horrible Culberson was the first month of the season.
 
TheBravos said:
He has been horrible of course, but he could also get hot at any time and make us forget.

Remember how absolutely horrible Culberson was the first month of the season.
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Problem is that Duvall is now below the Mendoza line for the year. His hit tool has always been marginal but it looks like its eroded to pitcher level now. I think that's eating into his power production as well. It's hard to drive balls out of the park when you're not barreling many up.

It's likely we've seen the last of Duvall as a useful major leaguer.
 
wow this thread is a joke, even this about his defense costing us games is nonsense. He is obviously having issues not playing much as he'd been use to doing, and has been slumping. As far as his power goes, his drive in Miami not long ago would be out of most ballparks. That was almost a big homerun. He even had another drive well gone that was so close they thought it might have hit the pole. So the power is still there, just a small sample and things not falling his way.
 
striker42 said:
Duvall is now 4 for 40 as a Brave. That's a .100 BA. But at least he's also shown no power (all 4 hits have been singles), poor plate discipline (just 3 BBs), and atrocious defense.

Seriously, how long can we keep this guy around? He's a marginal player when he's not actively giving games away. Right now he's absolutely killing us.
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Ozzie's 11 for his last 41 - time to dump him before he gets expensive.

40 ABs in 5 weeks from a bench/platoon player is "killing us"? Some folks have brain-freeze from looking at too many numbers - Duvall doesn't play enough to "kill" anybody, including opossums on the way home from the park.
 
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clvclv said:
Ozzie's 11 for his last 41 - time to dump him before he gets expensive.

40 ABs in 5 weeks from a bench/platoon player is "killing us"? Some folks have brain-freeze from looking at too many numbers - Duvall doesn't play enough to "kill" anybody, including opossums on the way home from the park.
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Considering he doesn't play a ton but has still probably cost us a couple games, it's an impressive amount of killing us.
 
striker42 said:
Duvall is now 4 for 40 as a Brave. That's a .100 BA. But at least he's also shown no power (all 4 hits have been singles), poor plate discipline (just 3 BBs), and atrocious defense.

Seriously, how long can we keep this guy around? He's a marginal player when he's not actively giving games away. Right now he's absolutely killing us.
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Lighten up Francis.

If Duvall's BABIP and iso were normal he'd be more than fine.

You're making it out like he's putting up Moylan numbers.
 
Hope snit sticks with the plan and starts Duvall vs the lefty. We could run into the cubs or dodgers in playoffs (hopefully), so I wanna get Duvall going
 
zitothebrave said:
Lighten up Francis.

If Duvall's BABIP and iso were normal he'd be more than fine.

You're making it out like he's putting up Moylan numbers.
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I'm not so sure you can blame everything on his BABIP, especially since coming over.

Since the trade, Duvall has a FB% of 64.3%. That's really high. Normally that might not be a terrible thing for a guy whose most valuable tool is his power. The problem is that Duvall isn't hitting the ball particularly hard. 60.7% of his batted balls have been classified as medium and 14.3% as soft.

So, Duvall in Atlanta has been hitting the ball in the air a lot but not hitting it particularly hard. This is going to lead to a lot of routine fly ball outs and a lower BABIP. He's probably had some bad luck mixed in. A .143 BABIP since the trade is going to have some bad luck in it. But Duvall has been performing like a sub-Mendoza line hitter since the trade.

But it's still a small sample size. It's concerning as Duvall's hit tool has always been marginal and any erosion there could easily result in his sudden and complete collapse as a player but it's too small a sample size to completely write him off.

So let's look at his full season stats. To be perfectly honest it's not all bad. His LD% is at a 3 year high this year at 21.5% (which is right at league average). His K% has remained steady and his BB rate has actually ticked up this year.

The problem is with his flyballs. Duvall has always been a flyball hitter (averaging 47.4 FB% in his career, league average is 35%). That remains unchanged this year. One really concerning trend with Duvall is the number of infield flies hes been hitting. An infield flyball is essentially a srikeout. His IFFB% has been trending up. In 2016 it was 8.1%, in 2017 it was 12.0%, and this year it's 15.3% (league average is 11%).

When a hitter is seeing his bat slowing down he'll start being a little late on fastballs and start skying them straight up. Look at Dan Uggla's IFFB numbers for comparison. In 2010 (last year with the Fish) 6.8%, in 2011 (first year in Atlanta) 11.9%, in 2012 it was 16.9%.

Considering Duvall's age (30), it wouldn't be surprising if his bat speed was slowing a hair causing him to pop more balls up.

Another concerning stat for Duvall is his HR/FB. That has also been trending down. It was 17.8% in 2016, 14.9% last year, and just 12.1% this year. Considering Duvall's FB% has remained steady and his HR/FB has dropped, and considering his age, there's a very, very real chance that Duvall's power is declining.

So, while Duvall has probably experienced some bad luck, there are some very concerning trends. Considering that Duvall has always been a deeply flawed batter that has relied on his power to give him value, any decline at all could be catastrophic to his value.

Disclaimer: I'm not stat master so I can't guarantee all my interpretations of his stats are correct.
 
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striker42 said:
I'm not so sure you can blame everything on his BABIP, especially since coming over.

Since the trade, Duvall has a FB% of 64.3%. That's really high. Normally that might not be a terrible thing for a guy whose most valuable tool is his power. The problem is that Duvall isn't hitting the ball particularly hard. 60.7% of his batted balls have been classified as medium and 14.3% as soft.

So, Duvall in Atlanta has been hitting the ball in the air a lot but not hitting it particularly hard. This is going to lead to a lot of routine fly ball outs and a lower BABIP. He's probably had some bad luck mixed in. A .143 BABIP since the trade is going to have some bad luck in it. But Duvall has been performing like a sub-Mendoza line hitter since the trade.

But it's still a small sample size. It's concerning as Duvall's hit tool has always been marginal and any erosion there could easily result in his sudden and complete collapse as a player but it's too small a sample size to completely write him off.

So let's look at his full season stats. To be perfectly honest it's not all bad. His LD% is at a 3 year high this year at 21.5% (which is right at league average). His K% has remained steady and his BB rate has actually ticked up this year.

The problem is with his flyballs. Duvall has always been a flyball hitter (averaging 47.4 FB% in his career, league average is 35%). That remains unchanged this year. One really concerning trend with Duvall is the number of infield flies hes been hitting. An infield flyball is essentially a srikeout. His IFFB% has been trending up. In 2016 it was 8.1%, in 2017 it was 12.0%, and this year it's 15.3% (league average is 11%).

When a hitter is seeing his bat slowing down he'll start being a little late on fastballs and start skying them straight up. Look at Dan Uggla's IFFB numbers for comparison. In 2010 (last year with the Fish) 6.8%, in 2011 (first year in Atlanta) 11.9%, in 2012 it was 16.9%.

Considering Duvall's age (30), it wouldn't be surprising if his bat speed was slowing a hair causing him to pop more balls up.

Another concerning stat for Duvall is his HR/FB. That has also been trending down. It was 17.8% in 2016, 14.9% last year, and just 12.1% this year. Considering Duvall's FB% has remained steady and his HR/FB has dropped, and considering his age, there's a very, very real chance that Duvall's power is declining.

So, while Duvall has probably experienced some bad luck, there are some very concerning trends. Considering that Duvall has always been a deeply flawed batter that has relied on his power to give him value, any decline at all could be catastrophic to his value.

Disclaimer: I'm not stat master so I can't guarantee all my interpretations of his stats are correct.
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The reality is that he has 43 Plate Appearances. I can pick up 40 plate appearances from anyone and extrapolate almost any data positive or negative from that. For example from APril13-23 Freeman posted a slash of .257/.325/.314 9Ks to 2 BB in 40 PA. From May 4th til May 25th Acuna posted a slash of .187/.253/.293 and in 83 PA had 27K and 6 BB.

There's a reason anyone who looks at stats doesn't look at small samples as any indication. Duvall isn't a great player, he's a solid piece. A solid MLB player, not a great player, not a game changer but around league average offensively and above average defensively.
 
zitothebrave said:
The reality is that he has 43 Plate Appearances. I can pick up 40 plate appearances from anyone and extrapolate almost any data positive or negative from that. For example from APril13-23 Freeman posted a slash of .257/.325/.314 9Ks to 2 BB in 40 PA. From May 4th til May 25th Acuna posted a slash of .187/.253/.293 and in 83 PA had 27K and 6 BB.

There's a reason anyone who looks at stats doesn't look at small samples as any indication. Duvall isn't a great player, he's a solid piece. A solid MLB player, not a great player, not a game changer but around league average offensively and above average defensively.
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Duvall has far more than 43 PAs this year as a whole though. He has even more than that since the start of 2016. The fact remains that he's seeing his infield flies increasing while seeing his HR/FB decreasing. For a 30 year old, that's bad news.

Also of note is that Duvall is hitting just .194 on the season in 413 PAs. His OPS for the season is a pitiful .640.

Duvall is not good and is likely to be worse next year.
 
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