The Amount of Talent the Braves Have Traded is Staggering

Dalyn said:
We were actually in the positive from 91-2005. #14 overall. The problems started around 2005, looks like. What baserunning (coaching, drills, etc) changes were made around that time?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure it was coaching as much as it was the roster. 2005 was the last year we had Furcal, and Chipper was older at that point and a negative on the basepaths; Andruw had ballooned a little and wasn't fast anymore. We had a stretch where we had guys like Deion, Grissom, Gant...even a guy like Justice who didn't steal many bases had some speed and was probably and even or slightly positive base runner.

Your base runners will generally come from 2B, SS, CF...well, over the last 10 years, we've had guys like Kelly Johnson, Prado, Uggla, Renteria, Yunel, Simmons, Fat Andruw, Kotsay, and McLouth at those positions. And we didn't make up for that with guys like McCann at C, LaRoche/Teixiera/Kotchman/Freeman at 1B, and Old Chipper at 3B.

I do think we have some issues on the basepaths, but after looking further, it's probably due mostly to the makeup of the roster.
 
smootness said:
I'm not sure it was coaching as much as it was the roster. 2005 was the last year we had Furcal, and Chipper was older at that point and a negative on the basepaths; Andruw had ballooned a little and wasn't fast anymore. We had a stretch where we had guys like Deion, Grissom, Gant...even a guy like Justice who didn't steal many bases had some speed and was probably and even or slightly positive base runner.

Your base runners will generally come from 2B, SS, CF...well, over the last 10 years, we've had guys like Kelly Johnson, Prado, Uggla, Renteria, Yunel, Simmons, Fat Andruw, Kotsay, and McLouth at those positions. And we didn't make up for that with guys like McCann at C, LaRoche/Teixiera/Kotchman/Freeman at 1B, and Old Chipper at 3B.

I do think we have some issues on the basepaths, but after looking further, it's probably due mostly to the makeup of the roster.
Click to expand...

Well, Bourn came over and didn't steal nearly as much. McLouth too, was a great base stealer in Pitt but stopped here. Justin Upton stole a lot before he came, then a lot after he left. Just odd that we don't run more.
 
sturg33 said:
Well, Bourn came over and didn't steal nearly as much. McLouth too, was a great base stealer in Pitt but stopped here. Justin Upton stole a lot before he came, then a lot after he left. Just odd that we don't run more.
Click to expand...

McLouth and Upton are decent examples of guys who definitely stole less while here. But if you look at what Bourn did after he went to Cleveland, the numbers he put up here actually just look like the natural regression in speed he was likely experiencing approaching 30.
 
sturg33 said:
Well, Bourn came over and didn't steal nearly as much. McLouth too, was a great base stealer in Pitt but stopped here. Justin Upton stole a lot before he came, then a lot after he left. Just odd that we don't run more.
Click to expand...

right, it's not just that we weren't good at stealing bases or didn't steal a lot, it's guys coming here after being good at it, doing it poorly or not much here, and then leaving and doing it well again.
 
smootness said:
I'm not sure it was coaching as much as it was the roster. 2005 was the last year we had Furcal, and Chipper was older at that point and a negative on the basepaths; Andruw had ballooned a little and wasn't fast anymore. We had a stretch where we had guys like Deion, Grissom, Gant...even a guy like Justice who didn't steal many bases had some speed and was probably and even or slightly positive base runner.

Your base runners will generally come from 2B, SS, CF...well, over the last 10 years, we've had guys like Kelly Johnson, Prado, Uggla, Renteria, Yunel, Simmons, Fat Andruw, Kotsay, and McLouth at those positions. And we didn't make up for that with guys like McCann at C, LaRoche/Teixiera/Kotchman/Freeman at 1B, and Old Chipper at 3B.

I do think we have some issues on the basepaths, but after looking further, it's probably due mostly to the makeup of the roster.
Click to expand...

It is more of a problem than just simply who is on the team. We had positive baserunners come to Atlanta and flop (relative to their past and future success) quite often.
 
Dalyn said:
It is more of a problem than just simply who is on the team. We had positive baserunners come to Atlanta and flop (relative to their past and future success) quite often.
Click to expand...

As I said, McLouth and Upton are decent examples, though neither was ever a prolific base stealer. Upton's percentages pretty much stayed the same, he just attempted about half the steals here he has elsewhere. And McLouth's numbers were down in Atlanta, though not to some incredible degree.

Outside of those guys, who saw a serious regression? Renteria was actually a slightly better base stealer in Atlanta than he was elsewhere at the time.
 
smootness said:
As I said, McLouth and Upton are decent examples, though neither was ever a prolific base stealer. Upton's percentages pretty much stayed the same, he just attempted about half the steals here he has elsewhere. And McLouth's numbers were down in Atlanta, though not to some incredible degree.

Outside of those guys, who saw a serious regression? Renteria was actually a slightly better base stealer in Atlanta than he was elsewhere at the time.
Click to expand...

To clarify, it's not just the big-time speed guys. Taking the extra base. Getting good jumps/reads. All of that takes a hit for a decent percentage of our players. It's weird. And McLouth went from, if I remember correctly, one of the highest (success) percentages in history to just an above average baserunner.

Bourn dropped from 13.6 to 7.8, McLouth from 9.0 to 2.1, Upton went from 0.9 to 5.0 so far this year, Heyward is also already higher this year than last, Blanco went from a 0.5 to a 5.7, Giles from a 0.8 to a 4.7, Renteria dropped from a 5.3 to a 0.8, BJ from a 5.3 to a 0.7, Cabrera went from a 0.0 to a 3.6, etc - I think there is enough evidence to support that it is something wrong with our system/approach. The difference in roster is just selection trying to overcome a weakness by avoiding those kinds of players, instead of finding and fixing the problem.
 
Dalyn said:
To clarify, it's not just the big-time speed guys. Taking the extra base. Getting good jumps/reads. All of that takes a hit for a decent percentage of our players. It's weird. And McLouth went from, if I remember correctly, one of the highest (success) percentages in history to just an above average baserunner.

Bourn dropped from 13.6 to 7.8, McLouth from 9.0 to 2.1, Upton went from 0.9 to 5.0 so far this year, Heyward is also already higher this year than last, Blanco went from a 0.5 to a 5.7, Giles from a 0.8 to a 4.7, Renteria dropped from a 5.3 to a 0.8, BJ from a 5.3 to a 0.7, Cabrera went from a 0.0 to a 3.6, etc - I think there is enough evidence to support that it is something wrong with our system/approach. The difference in roster is just selection trying to overcome a weakness by avoiding those kinds of players, instead of finding and fixing the problem.
Click to expand...

This is a pretty selective use of the numbers. Let's run through these: Bourn dropped from 13.6 to 7.8 but clearly had a 3-year peak, and we got him as he was coming off that. He was 6.7 in 2008 before that run, and he's been at 3.9, 0.6, and 2.1 in the last 3 years since leaving Atlanta.

McLouth dropped from 9 to 2.1 but the 9 was by far his best year ever. The 2.1 came in half a season with Atlanta, he jumped to 3.4 in half a season with Atlanta the following year, was at 3.8 in 89 games the next year after Atlanta, and was under 6 in a full year the next.

Renteria had a run with these numbers prior to coming to Atlanta: -1.3, 3.8, -1.7, 1.6, -2.5, 5.9, 2.2, 5.3. He did drop to 0.8 his first year in Atlanta, then rebounded to 3.1 his second year. What did he do in the 2 years after Atlanta? -1.6, -2.8.

It seems to me the common thread here is that we got each of these guys around age 28/29, right after their peaks as base runners, and Atlanta coincided with a downward trajectory for them. There is no obvious trend of being great elsewhere and worse in Atlanta here.

Heyward? Yes, he is at 4.4 this year already after posting a 3.4 last year and a -0.6 in an injury-plagued year in 2013. But even this year doesn't come close to the 9.7 he posted in Atlanta in 2012. Why would he get better over the last couple years? Maybe because he's healthy and he's 25. We let him go just as he was getting near his peak, which seems to be about 25-27 or so for base runners.

You use Upton's comparison from 2014 to 2015 but don't use the fact that he was 3.7 in 2012 with Arizona and 4.1 in 2013 with Atlanta.

And Gregor Blanco? Seriously? He had 48 PAs in 2009 when he posted that 0.5. What did he do with a full year the year before? 3.7. He did post 5.7 in 2012, then fell to -0.5 and -0.2 in the years following.

Marcus Giles posted 0.8 in his last year in Atlanta. The 3 years prior? 5.6, 3.1, 3.5. In that sense, the 4.7 is mostly just more of the same; makes the 0.8 seem like a random outlier, not a product of bad base running coaching/techniques in Atlanta.

Melky Cabrera? Yeah, he sucked in Atlanta. Even still, in the 3 years prior to that 0.0 in Atlanta, he posted a combined total of 0.5. And he's been awful the last 2 years. Seems like perhaps that two year uptick coincided with a two-year uptick in offensive numbers as a whole. What could that have been?

And lastly, BJ. Again, BJ also sucked in Atlanta. And he sucks in San Diego. He did post a 2.5 last year in Atlanta, though, and posted a 0.9 in TB the year before that 5.3.

So, yes, you used extremely selective numbers to make it look as bad as possible for these guys' years in Atlanta. Taken as a whole, Atlanta does not in any way look like an aberration.
 
Just as an add-on, using a guy who was in his peak years with the Braves, here are Furcal's numbers:

2003-2005 w/ Braves: 11.1, 9.2, 7.5

2006-2012 after Braves: 4.5, 1.3, 1.3, 2.5, 4.7, 2.1, 2.0

He was age 25-27 during that span with the Braves, 28-34 after.
 
And keep in mind that base running isn't precisely the same as base stealing. You can be a great base runner and not steal many bases. It's about being smart on balls put in play and knowing when you can take 2 bases on a single.
 
I think its important to note how the players we traded are actually doing and how the players we added are doing.

Heywood .288/.343/.437

Gattis .244/.274/.449

JUpton .247/.320/.430

Markakis .293/.371/.369 - I will gladly take an OBP machine over sub .350 OBP

Maybin .266/.327/.373 - If we dont make this trade Melvin is starting CF most of the year for us.

Peterson .250/.326/.356

Pierzynski - .302/.339/.446 - Better defensively and I would rather his stat line over Gattis this year. So we traded Gattis and got better production from his replacement for only 5 million.

I dont think anyone can say we would have been a better team this year without those trades. We would have Melvin in center probably leading off. No Markakis because we have Heywood and Justin. The pen would have been a lot better with everyone moving down 1 spot for Kimbrel. The offense probably would have been worse because Gattis/Heywood took the first month off and Justin has only hit in the first month. No wonder 2014 team sucked.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top