The Big Three--What is the Reasonable Upside

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Teheran and Inciarte will be playing their age 26 seasons. Freeman his age 27 season.

It seems to me they all have some upside left. Their ages suggest this. A look at their best half seasons to date also suggests this.

Freeman put up an OPS of 1.067 in the second half of last year. David Ortiz was the only guy with an OPS of over 1.000 last year. Fredito has reached a point where an MVP type season is a reasonable possibility.

Ender had even more extreme splits last year with an OPS of .599 and .836 in the first and second halves. Some of that was BABIP driven. But it is also worth remembering that he suffered an injury early last season that required a stint on the DL. A reasonable upside for Ender this year is a 4-5 win season.

Teheran had his career best walk rate and best strikeout rate since 2013 last year. The upside I would look for from him would be incremental improvement in those two metrics together with a 200 plus inning workload. That would generate a 4-5 win season.
 
Freddie has over 1.000 upside. Problem is you don't predict upside and he's a 1B so he almost needs to have a plus 0.900 OPS to be plus.

Ender listed as having the second best deal in baseball per ESPN insider with all of his surplus value. I still don't see an impact hitter but he doesn't have to be in CF. I see a league avg hitter. If he hits north of 0.750 then he's a big time stud.

Tehran listed in an insider article on ESPN as a risk of going to Shelby Miller last year. The argument is based on how bad his fastball has been-not just velocity, contact rates etc-and how Turner field bailed him out. If SunTrust is a hitter's park then he could be bad. I'm not sure what we go offered for him last year but if we got an impact guy back we could be kicking ourselves. My guess is that the park won't be that hitter friendly. But Kemp and Markakis isn't going to help him as a fly ball pitcher.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Freddie has over 1.000 upside. Problem is you don't predict upside and he's a 1B so he almost needs to have a plus 0.900 OPS to be plus.

Ender listed as having the second best deal in baseball per ESPN insider with all of his surplus value. I still don't see an impact hitter but he doesn't have to be in CF. I see a league avg hitter. If he hits north of 0.750 then he's a big time stud.

Tehran listed in an insider article on ESPN as a risk of going to Shelby Miller last year. The argument is based on how bad his fastball has been-not just velocity, contact rates etc-and how Turner field bailed him out. If SunTrust is a hitter's park then he could be bad. I'm not sure what we go offered for him last year but if we got an impact guy back we could be kicking ourselves. My guess is that the park won't be that hitter friendly. But Kemp and Markakis isn't going to help him as a fly ball pitcher.
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That's a bit of a stretch. Only five qualified 1B last year had an OPS over .900, so he wouldn't have to clear that hurdle to be a plus. Fortunately, while I don't think he's the second best hitting 1B in the league like he was last year, I do think he's capable of sticking around a .900 OPS.

Agreed on Ender and Julio. Ender is on a great deal with his recent extension and while I don't buy his second half being indicative of his future at the plate, he doesn't have to do that to be extremely valuable. Julio is a guy I think we should have really tried to sell high on. I'm hoping he doesn't completely fall off right away, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
Why should we be all that concerned that Teheran will fall off?

I haven't read the ESPN article, but if they're trying to pinpoint the 'next Shelby Miller,' that's pretty dumb. Miller's issues were mental and mechanical. He suddenly could not repeat his mechanics, and they got so out of whack his hand was hitting the ground when he pitched. You can't predict the next guy who will suddenly struggle in that way. It's not surprise, as every time anyone has a crazy rare season out of nowhere (either good or bad), the media immediately ask who will do that rare thing the following year...but it's still dumb.

Teheran has basically been the same guy for 4 years now, outside of an uptick in walks in 2015. His K/9 is always between 7.5-8 or so, his BB/9 is pretty much right around 2, and he'll give up 7.5-8.5 H/9. He'll have a FIP around 3.5-3.7 and he'll outpitch that by a bit and have an ERA around 3 or a tick above.

There's a risk with most pitchers that they will become less effective all the sudden, but I don't know why we would be more concerned about that with Teheran than anyone else.
 
nsacpi said:
Teheran and Inciarte will be playing their age 26 seasons. Freeman his age 27 season.

It seems to me they all have some upside left. Their ages suggest this. A look at their best half seasons to date also suggests this.

Freeman put up an OPS of 1.067 in the second half of last year. David Ortiz was the only guy with an OPS of over 1.000 last year. Fredito has reached a point where an MVP type season is a reasonable possibility.

Ender had even more extreme splits last year with an OPS of .599 and .836 in the first and second halves. Some of that was BABIP driven. But it is also worth remembering that he suffered an injury early last season that required a stint on the DL. A reasonable upside for Ender this year is a 4-5 win season.

Teheran had his career best walk rate and best strikeout rate since 2013 last year. The upside I would look for from him would be incremental improvement in those two metrics together with a 200 plus inning workload. That would generate a 4-5 win season.
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Teheran is what he is by now. Pitchers don't follow the same aging curve as position players. The only worry about him is the same injury concerns all pitchers have.

Freeman should be primed to be a Top 3 player at 1B this year. An OPS around 1.000 and 40 HRs are most certainly possible. There is no reason not to expect MVP consideration for Freeman. He is the best player on the team, and while he is a notch or two below Chipper, he is a good cornerstone for a team to build around.

Ender's bad first half can be attributed to injury, and his great 2nd half contributed to luck. I don't think anyone outside of Braves homers expect him to post anything appreciably better than a .750 OPS with fairly significant platoon splits. Coupled with his elite defense, that is a 3+ WAR player.
 
JT's fly ball rate would concern me at Suntrust since it is a smaller park, but I don't think we will see a huge variance.. **I hope**
 
you have to squint a bit harder to find room for improvement in Teheran...if it comes it will likely be due to further refinement of his off-speed pitches
 
smootness said:
Why should we be all that concerned that Teheran will fall off?

I haven't read the ESPN article, but if they're trying to pinpoint the 'next Shelby Miller,' that's pretty dumb. Miller's issues were mental and mechanical. He suddenly could not repeat his mechanics, and they got so out of whack his hand was hitting the ground when he pitched. You can't predict the next guy who will suddenly struggle in that way. It's not surprise, as every time anyone has a crazy rare season out of nowhere (either good or bad), the media immediately ask who will do that rare thing the following year...but it's still dumb.

Teheran has basically been the same guy for 4 years now, outside of an uptick in walks in 2015. His K/9 is always between 7.5-8 or so, his BB/9 is pretty much right around 2, and he'll give up 7.5-8.5 H/9. He'll have a FIP around 3.5-3.7 and he'll outpitch that by a bit and have an ERA around 3 or a tick above.

There's a risk with most pitchers that they will become less effective all the sudden, but I don't know why we would be more concerned about that with Teheran than anyone else.
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bc fastball is losing velocity. doesn't have great fb control. they said his fb got hit a lot and hit hard. Basically said a lot of fly balls that were outs last year are going to be runs in the new park.
 
Russ2dollas said:
bc fastball is losing velocity. doesn't have great fb control. they said his fb got hit a lot and hit hard. Basically said a lot of fly balls that were outs last year are going to be runs in the new park.
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WRT his fastball, here are the relevant data:

Velocity
2013 - 92.1
2014 - 91.3
2015 - 91.6
2016 - 91.0

Swing Strike %
2013 - 10.0%
2014 - 9.5%
2015 - 8.8%
2016 - 7.2%

So yes, Teheran is experiencing the typical decline in "stuff" all pitchers go through as he reaches his mid-20s. The Braves decided to keep him and waste some of his best seasons on a losing team rather than trading him and extracting that value for the future. It was the wrong choice (as shown by the White Sox), but it's the current reality for the Braves.
 
Enscheff said:
WRT his fastball, here are the relevant data:

Velocity
2013 - 92.1
2014 - 91.3
2015 - 91.6
2016 - 91.0

Swing Strike %
2013 - 10.0%
2014 - 9.5%
2015 - 8.8%
2016 - 7.2%

So yes, Teheran is experiencing the typical decline in "stuff" all pitchers go through as he reaches his mid-20s. The Braves decided to keep him and waste some of his best seasons on a losing team rather than trading him and extracting that value for the future. It was the wrong choice (as shown by the White Sox), but it's the current reality for the Braves.
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Is this 4 or 2 seamer.. or both? What % did he throw FB in relation to other pitches.

His K% was higher than the last 2 years. I am not seeing anything that tells me he is 'loosing stuff'. In fact I am seeing a guy consistently repeating performance. His fly ball% is what scares me the most with him, but he would have to have a historically bad year to lose his value.

I also think JT would have been traded by now if other guys had stepped up. sometimes you are forced to play the hand you are dealt. I still think JT will be dealt within the next two years.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Is this 4 or 2 seamer.. or both? What % did he throw FB in relation to other pitches.

His K% was higher than the last 2 years. I am not seeing anything that tells me he is 'loosing stuff'. In fact I am seeing a guy consistently repeating performance. His fly ball% is what scares me the most with him, but he would have to have a historically bad year to lose his value.

I also think JT would have been traded by now if other guys had stepped up. sometimes you are forced to play the hand you are dealt. I still think JT will be dealt within the next two years.
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For the two seamer it is:

2013 89.5
2014 88.5
2015 89.8
2016 89.6

He did cut back on usage of the two-seamer sharply last year from 23.0% of his pitches in 2015 to 8.6%. He compensated by throwing more four-seamers and more breaking balls.

In particular, his use of the slider has been rising over the years. The thing that I like about Julio is that he has a deep repetoire. I think his slider is his best pitch now. I'd like to see him throw the change-up more against lefties.
 
nsacpi said:
For the two seamer it is:

2013 89.5
2014 88.5
2015 89.8
2016 89.6

He did cut back on usage of the two-seamer sharply last year from 23.0% of his pitches in 2015 to 8.6%. He compensated by throwing more four-seamers and more breaking balls.

In particular, his use of the slider has been rising over the years. The thing that I like about Julio is that he has a deep repetoire. I think his slider is his best pitch now. I'd like to see him throw the change-up more against lefties.
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This is what I am saying.

His total Strike out % for the last 4 years

2013 22%
2014 21%
2015 20.3%
2016 22%

Literally all his advance stats are the same or better. There is nothing in his advance stats that say he is loosing anything. Maybe there is a slight velocity drop, but if that is to have better control, then fine by me. so far the results are still there.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
This is what I am saying.

His total Strike out % for the last 4 years

2013 22%
2014 21%
2015 20.3%
2016 22%

Literally all his advance stats are the same or better. There is nothing in his advance stats that say he is loosing anything. Maybe there is a slight velocity drop, but if that is to have better control, then fine by me. so far the results are still there.
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He's pitching style has undergone some shifts from year to year. My sense is his feel for some pitches has come and gone and he's adapted. That ability to adapt is a good thing. The walk rate was at a career low last year and I think this is one area where a pitcher at his age is likely to be able to continue improving. Also my recollection is he had a knee injury at some point in 2015 that caused his performance to tail off that year.
 
This is how good pitchers lose their stuff as they age but maintain their performance. They learn to sequence. They learn to locate. They improve their breaking pitches.

Teheran's pure "stuff" is deteriorating. It was inevitable, just like it is for all pitchers. It will continue to deteriorate to the point where location, sequencing and offspeed improvements fail to make up for his loss in velocity. It certainly doesn't mean he is due for a decline in performance, but it is indisputable it's in decline.

It isn't a question of "if", it's only a question of "when". The Braves wasted several years of Teheran's peak "stuff" on losing teams just to give the fans a warm fuzzy feeling. It was a poor decision from a organizational value standpoint, and we will see just how much value (and wins in competitive seasons) it cost them within a few years. We are currently watching the White Sox NOT make that same mistake with Sale and Q (soon).
 
Enscheff said:
This is how good pitchers lose their stuff as they age but maintain their performance. They learn to sequence. They learn to locate. They improve their breaking pitches.

Teheran's pure "stuff" is deteriorating. It was inevitable, just like it is for all pitchers. It will continue to deteriorate to the point where location, sequencing and offspeed improvements fail to make up for his loss in velocity. It certainly doesn't mean he is due for a decline in performance, but it is indisputable it's in decline.

It isn't a question of "if", it's only a question of "when". The Braves wasted several years of Teheran's peak "stuff" on losing teams just to give the fans a warm fuzzy feeling. It was a poor decision from a organizational value standpoint, and we will see just how much value (and wins in competitive seasons) it cost them within a few years. We are currently watching the White Sox NOT make that same mistake with Sale and Q (soon).
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your hardon for the Sox's is disturbing.. it really is..

But please explain how we 'wasted' JT value? Are you saying we could have gotten more for JT in a trade at the end of 2015 vs. end of year 2016?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
your hardon for the Sox's is disturbing.. it really is..

But please explain how we 'wasted' JT value? Are you saying we could have gotten more for JT in a trade at the end of 2015 vs. end of year 2016?
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You need me to explain how Teheran's value decreases as his contractual control diminishes?

I don't think I'll go into Player Value 101 today, sorry.
 
Enscheff said:
You need me to explain how Teheran's value decreases as his contractual control diminishes?

I don't think I'll go into Player Value 101 today, sorry.
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Contract is not the only thing that drives players value. Very weak argument today. but I am cool with whatever..

So by your theory, FF is worth more after 2015 than he is now?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Contract is not the only thing that drives players value. Very weak argument today. but I am cool with whatever..

So by your theory, FF is worth more after 2015 than he is now?
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Now you need me to explain the difference in aging curves for pitchers and position players too?

Do you truly see Freeman and Teheran as equivalent situations? You really aren't able to understand the difference between pitchers and hitters, how they age, and the risk associated with each group of players? Or are you just being contrarian and picking random parts of a statement to argue against as usual?

Serious question out of curiosity: Did you go to college? If so, did your college have a class where students analyzed points and counterpoints, like an introduction to debate and critical thinking? Did you pass that class? Or just scrape by with a C-?

Because you seem to really struggle with making logical conclusions and arguing against points with which you disagree using points that are relevant and counter to the point you are arguing against.

Do you understand that bringing up Freddie Freeman is in no way relevant in a discussion about Julio Teheran's value?

Seriously, I'm trying to understand how someone can be so...dense. Help me, please.
 
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