The Coronavirus, not the beer

nsacpi said:
really? there was little adjustment in behavior in late Feb/early March

by mid-March people were scared and had spontaneously adopted big changes in behavior

the NBA suspending the season on March 11/weso's post on March 12...that's about the time panic set in
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All it takes is 5% to significantly slow the spread. It was happening before US went into lockdown.
 
thethe said:
You act like the models were right because of the various scenarios but the key item they got tr terribly wrong were the hospitalizations.

It's a bad flu. Nothing more. We just dont have a vaccine.
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Not sure why getting that one thing "wrong" makes it the "real crisis." Concerns about hospitalization rate were/are ultimately about deaths.

In fact, the NY hospitalization/death ratio ended up way down because they sent people home when they ran out of beds. And then lots of people died at home. That's exactly what we were worried about.

Also, I see you didn't agree to my "cure rate" wager. I'll take that as an admission that you agree you should just shut the **** up.
 
thethe said:
Social distancing was happening before and it's all that needed to be done.

There is some interesting reading that staying inside in large apartment complexes helped continue the spread.

It's a big reason why we are seeing a longer than expected plateau
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When? Sporting and entertainment events around the country didn't start getting cancelled til March 11/12. The White House didn't release social distancing guidelines til March 16.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Not sure why getting that one thing "wrong" makes it the "real crisis." Concerns about hospitalization rate were/are ultimately about deaths.

In fact, the NY hospitalization/death ratio ended up way down because they sent people home when they ran out of beds. And then lots of people died at home. That's exactly what we were worried about.

Also, I see you didn't agree to my "cure rate" wager. I'll take that as an admission that you agree you should just shut the **** up.
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If I said that hydroxychloroquine would have a 100% death rate then I deserve condemnation.

We went into lockdown because of the hospitalizations. You know it. We all know it. It didnt come close to happening as designed.

Hospitals are going bankrupt the projections were so off.
 
Carp said:
When? Sporting and entertainment events around the country didn't start getting cancelled til March 11/12. The White House didn't release social distancing guidelines til March 16.
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Maybe you weren't alive but we all saw the videos from china and deaths mounting in europe.

It wasnt a lockdown but behavior was changing since late feb early march.
 
thethe said:
Maybe you weren't alive but we all saw the videos from china and deaths mounting in europe.

It wasnt a lockdown but behavior was changing since late feb early march.
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And posters (including me) in this thread were saying no need to panic as of late February/early March
 
Metaphysicist said:
My school has basically cancelled all events of any significant size for the rest of the semester. Summoned home all study abroad students. Strongly intimating that people shouldn't even come to class and that they will be recording all classes.

Honestly seems like kind of an overreaction. This is New York; we all live directly on top of each other. If it really starts getting around, none of that is really gonna help.
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bump from March 5
 
thethe said:
Social distancing was happening before and it's all that needed to be done.
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You are such a liar, dude. 3/14-3/16 was St. Patty's day weekend. The bars were full. Like, we were there dude. I remember tell my friends who invited me out that they were being idiots.

thethe said:
Yes it would. Let a flu ravage the population with no immunization and see what happens.
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If by "bad flu" you mean "1918 flu" instead of "a bad flu season" then once again you have wasted everyone's time by arguing in the dumbest way possible.
 
nsacpi said:
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I think this is a valid point to bring up. And I think it is a good idea to encourage people (without underlying health risks) to go about their lives.

But I also think there is reason to worry (a lot). Italy reported 130 deaths yesterday. We are a much bigger country and several weeks behind in terms of progression of the virus. It is NOT farfetched that in a month or so we might be reporting a multiple of 130 deaths a day. Let's say a 2000 per week. The flu season is roughly 30 weeks and kills 1,000-2,000 per week. It is also not known if Italy has reached any sort of inflection point. Things may get worse from here.

The other thing to point out is about 10% of people infected in Italy are requiring intensive care. Their medical system is being stressed pretty severely. I won't use the word overwhelmed yet, but that is the risk.
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March 9. Now I'm embarassed to have been ambivalent at such a late date.
 
Carp said:
That time period as in what? Show your proof instead of using generalized statements.
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Rate of growth in confiemd infection dropped off of a cliff around march 20. Take it back 2 weeks for incubation and there you go
This was already a topic but I assumed you just didnt understand which is fine.
 
nsacpi said:
bump from March 5
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Yep. My school was definitely moving ahead of the rest of the city too. Within a week all classes were shut down and they were sending undergrads home. But it seemed to be happening really fast at the time, and people weren't taking it super seriously.

I think I was correct that just cancelling school events wouldn't have made much of an effect, but in hindsight the admin was definite not overreacting by moving fast overall.
 
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