Seems to me quite a few states closed before the virus got there, only to reopen before the virus hit. Almost like they didn't realize nobody visits Podunk Alabama, so the virus would get there later than it reached gateway cities. Probably because people in Podunk Alabama are too stupid to realize much of anything, but I digress.
However, I still think it's important for folks to realize that this virus was always going to spread through the entire population. The only question was whether it took 6 months to spread, or 18 months to spread. We chose 18 months to prevent hospitals from becoming overburdened.
I'm not sure when "flatten the curve" turned into "wait for the virus to blow over", but it's completely unrealistic to think we can have the entire population hide in their homes while this thing passes...because it won't pass until it infects everyone-ish.
As of now, hospitals are not being overburdened. The folks getting sick now were always going to get sick, whether now or 6 months from now. There is nothing any government mandate can do right now to make less folks die than are already going to die, so it's probably wise to protect the vulnerable and stop destroying the economy.
There has been a lot of learning since March. Anyone with the responsibility of creating a strategy for a state or country has to watch what is happening elsewhere.
What we've seen is that countries and states are capable of bringing infection rates to very low levels, and that opening up economies at those very low levels is a promising strategy.
First we saw it in Wuhan...but they are part of a totalitarian system.
Then South Korea...different culture
Then New Zealand...but they are an island
Denmark, FINLAND, Norway...but they are small homogenous countries
Well we have also seen it happen in large European countries that are the closest thing to our peer group.
We've seen it in New York...less than 1% of test results reported yesterday were positive.
Better to reopen at 1% positive than 3% positive, which is where NY was at the start of June.
Look at Arizona. The low for the 7-day average was 6.5% in mid-May. If they could have held on a few more weeks, they could have reopened at 3%, which would have given them a better shot at success.
The other part of course is how to get the public to do its part. You have to repeat the message. Mask up and keep a safe distance. It is common sense, but some countries and states have done better in consistently pushing that message and getting compliance from their people.
At one time, flatten the curve was a very useful message and strategy. But a lot of countries and states have shown that it is possible to bring the infection rate down to very low levels. Even in the UK, which has also had a shambolic response from its government. Maybe it won't be sustainable. That remains a source of uncertainty.