The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm just using examples of similar reasoning. But you only seem comfortable with such reasoning when you like the answer it gives you.
Anyhow using this mode of reasoning we can conclude so far that:
1) Democratic governors lead to worse covid outcomes
2) Republican governors lead to shorter lives
3) Republican governors lead to lower incomes
4) Republican presidents lead to increases in unemployment and Democratic ones to decreases in unemployment
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Runnin
Well-known member
Blaming states for pandemic missteps requires some mental gymnastics when there was no national strategy. There was in fact national misinformation and a system created where states had to compete against each other and even against FEMA for supplies. The WH also withheld help and supplies from states OO perceived as being not in his pocket.
sturg33
I
well for one... your amazing example takes decades and dozens of leader changes to measure... not the months of covid actions we have had.
For two, you're the guy who wanted mandated lock downs and then criticize Trump for unemployment. Classicly predictable.
But you should bring this unrelated topic to the economics thread if you wanna dive in further.
In the meantime, can you answer why Sweden is responsible for bad covid outcomes relative to its peers, but American states are not?
sturg33
I
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think to investigate the question of which states did worse, you need to look at outcomes relative to things like population density, when infections started spreading widely. You can also look at specific measures such as closing schools, isolating nursing homes, requiring masks and restricting movement, and crowd size, and when those measures were implemented relative to infection rates. That's kind of the approach that needs to be taken if you want to analyze how a state or country did relatively speaking. It is entirely possible that doing this kind of exercise will give New York a bad grade. Maybe someday someone will attempt such an exercise.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Because and I'll try to say this nice and slow for you Sweden is similar to its neighbors in terms of demographics, population density and intensity and timing of the initial covid attack.
In contrast and again I'm gonna go real slow, NY and other northeastern states differ from the sunbelt states in some crucial dimensions. One is population density and reliance on public transportation. NY City is by far the most densely populated part of the country. And NJ is the most densely populated state in the country (more densely populated than Japan). And other NE states (MA, CT, RI) are also among the most densely populated states in the country, with all that that implies for the speed of transmission of an infectious disease.
The second important difference is timing of the spread of infection. It spread widely early in certain states, among them the Northeastern states, Louisiana and Michigan.
For the states where things did not get bad until June, this means they had some advantages. Those advantages included more time to prepare (told you I was going to take it slow and easy). The fact they did not use this advantage wisely is another matter. Another advantage is that treatments and knowledge about how to slow infections has improved over time. The fact that some of this knowledge (about the efficacy of wearing a mask) was not exploited is yet another matter.
Conclusion: comparing Sweden to its Scandinavian neighbors is kosher
Comparing NY to Florida is not kosher unless you find a way to control for things like population density and timing and intensity of the attacks in March and June.
Comparing NY to Sweden is like going to a rabbi's house and asking him for a cheeseburger.
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Runnin
Well-known member
I'm sure some states did better, but the virus attacks each state differently and at different times. Judging states this way is not helpful, imo. A better exercise would be judging what actions helped and in what situations and what actions didn't help.
But before you get to what states did wrong, you have to start with the federal govt. Everything states do or don't do is first a result of the lack of leadership from the CDC and the WH.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
sturg33
I
You'll be shocked to learn Facebook and others are removing this video from their platform
sturg33
I
It's true that New York killed a whole heckuva lot of other people outside of nursing homes too...much more effectively than the other states managed to
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think NY made a lot of mistakes. Took too long to close schools. Ditto the subway. If they had closed those a couple days earlier they would have saved thousands of lives. Fortunately, many parents stopped sending their kids to school before the city closed them, and many subway riders stopped using the subway before they were closed. Many people did not wait for the governor and mayor to act.
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Removing deaths from the death toll improves the death toll. What more ground breaking information can you bring us?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Maybe he or thethe can tell us more about Dr. Stella Immanuel.
I'm not exactly a supporter of protests during a pandemic no matter what the cause, but comparing a concert to social injustice protests (whether it's BLM or lockdown protests) is dumb. And it's truly sad you can't see the difference.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah. His mental decline seems to have accelerated recently. It is sad to watch unfold in real time.
Runnin
Well-known member
Surely they did, but they were going it alone, for the most part. You can blame them for not shutting down sooner, but at this same time the WH was downplaying the virus and telling people to not panic (aka stop public business activity).
The WH has no grounds to criticize any state for their pandemic response or lack thereof.