The Coronavirus, not the beer

nsacpi said:
I thought it was supposed to go down as testing becomes more widespread.
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Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Feb. 23: “We have it very much under control in this country.”

Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
 
Julio3000 said:
As Meta said, the context for this was you advocating for “restarting the economy..”
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After the 15 day period and it's still valid.

I'm not thrilled with the new restart but I think it's because they want to limit deaths to under 50k.

I was still right and you were still wrong yet you mocked me.

Did you ever say you were wrong yet about the FBI?

How about the FISA process?

Nevermind....you're never wrong and I'm a simpleton who is a crazy conspiracy right winger
 
nsacpi said:
I thought it was supposed to go down as testing becomes more widespread.
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No...the tested population are the ones showing symptoms so by definiition they are more likely to die.

Nobody is prioritizing testing everyone aside from what appears to be germany and why they are getting such a low 'death rate'.
 
thethe said:
No...the tested population are the ones showing symptoms so by definiition they are more likely to die.

Nobody is prioritizing testing everyone aside from what appears to be germany and why they are getting such a low 'death rate'.
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Iceland.

I think the idea is as you test a larger proportion of the population and the tests find more people with mild or no symptoms who are positive, the case fatality rate should go down. The rise in South Korea is not consistent with that.

Will be interesting to see what happens to the fatality rate in Germany.

Italians are kind of a perfect storm. Lots of old people. A culture of kissing and hugging.

And a government that reacted sluggishly. Then perhaps tried to overcompensate.
 
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nsacpi said:
Iceland

Will be interesting to see what happens to the fatality rate in Germany.

Italians are kind of a perfect storm. Lots of old people. A culture of kissing and hugging.

And a government that reacted sluggishly. Then perhaps tried to overcompensate.
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You're right...I read that about Iceland comparing their situation to the Netherlands. Good call.
 
My understanding is the population testing positive in Germany initially skewed younger. It is just a matter of time before that changes and their fatality rate starts to rise.
 
Some doctors have made the observation that very sick COVID patients with low oxygen levels are not struggling for breath.
This has lead them to think that COVID affects oxygen carrying capabilities (in addition to lung damage). Something that has similarities to altitude sickness. Intubation apparently should be delayed if this is the case.

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nsacpi said:
Some doctors are thinking that COVID affects oxygen carrying capabilities (in addition to lung damage). Something that has similarities to altitude sickness. Intubation apparently is not the right course if this is the case.

[tw]1241933221543149568[tw]

[tw]1243586382758662146[tw]
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Just saw that.

So ventilators drama was for nothing?
 
thethe said:
Just saw that.

So ventilators drama was for nothing?
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Possibly. But these maverick doctors might be wrong. It is something that is stirring debate among doctors. A lot of learning on the fly. No time for peer reviewed case studies. I've sent out texts to a couple doctor friends about this but no reply yet. I think any doctor would want to be cautious here.

It is worth noting that ventilators do become appropriate at a different point in the disease's progression. This discussion is about how appropriate they are at a particular point in its progression.

COVID has caused a lot of confusion because in addition to attacking lungs, it causes other types of damage. The focus on lung damage might have led to an underestimation of the importance of the other types of damage.

Listen to the interview here with Dr. Kyle-Sidell. It is very interesting.

https://thinkingcriticalcare.com/
 
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thethe said:
So ventilators drama was for nothing?
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If you assume that literally every single person in Lombardy is already infected (10M), the death rate there is already approaching .1%. That's right, the virus will soon have killed almost .1% of the whole population in around just 1 month. And here is how deaths are currently trending, so stopping at .1% seems optimistic; though luckily the increase is no longer exponential.

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Grimly, the rest of us better hope that there really is something about "being Italian" that makes the virus an order of magnitude more deadly there.
 
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Here is the most optimistic possible spin I can put on the overall Italy numbers.

Basic stats

- 60M population.
- 10,770 deaths total
- 21.5% positive rate in testing.


Assumption

- Untested population is also already positive at 21.5% rate (no way this is true, but this is a "generous" model)
- Thus, 12.9M people are already infected.
- Nobody else will get infected (ha)
- Nobody else will die (haha)

Results

That gives you a current death rate of 0.08% (10,700*100/12.9M). So that's the best possible scenario I can imagine for Italy, assuming a miracle starting tomorrow. It is just literally impossible for it to be lower, so if you aren't starting there you aren't being serious.
 
Giving people who lost for power what they want is always going to lead to loss of liberty. 'Never let a crisis go to waste'

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Let's hope this was just a clumsy way of saying permanently during the crisis
 
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