The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
brief attempt at serious discussion:
1) many variables affect the progression of covid in a geographical area
2) there is an unexplained random element after all those variables are accounted for
3) we see cycles in many areas that probably reflect a feedback loop between severity of the outbreak and more cautious behaviors (and policies)
4) masks are one of the variables that explains some of the difference across states and countries
1) many variables affect the progression of covid in a geographical area
2) there is an unexplained random element after all those variables are accounted for
3) we see cycles in many areas that probably reflect a feedback loop between severity of the outbreak and more cautious behaviors (and policies)
4) masks are one of the variables that explains some of the difference across states and countries
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
very astute observations
the other thing i would add is temperature is one variable...it might push things one way at the same time as other variables are pushing in the other direction
and this feedback loop that i mentioned in the post above is not to be underestimated
zbhargrove
Well-known member
There you go again attributing things to people that they never said... you realize all you do is lecture everyone as well, right? Hence the hypocrisy
You put fake words in peoples’ mouths and then lecture them about things they never said
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zbhargrove
Well-known member
It’s pretty clear you don’t understand. It’s not the temperature that slows the virus it’s the behavior the temperature leads to. 60 degrees in LA is pretty chilly and will cause most to remain indoors. In North Dakota... 47 degrees in December will lead everyone to flock outside. You add masks in and it’s not hard to see why we are looking better
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
an interesting aspect of this is that summer is indoor season in places like miami and phoenix
the feedback loop is probably in play in the Dakotas...people got scared and adjusted behavior...and when cases go down they will relax and get careless
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zbhargrove
Well-known member
It’s almost like both of those places had spikes in the summer and one mandated masks and improved....
zbhargrove
Well-known member
You’ve been clear you don’t have all the answers and that it’s a complicated issue... but sturg doesn’t want to read that into it because it doesn’t fit his narrative
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
he's a piece of work
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Suppose variable z is affected by both x and y
lets keep it simple and say z=x + y
well there are going to be days when y goes up but z goes down (due to x falling even more than y went up)
does that mean there isn't a positive relationship between y and z
of course not
sturg33
I
You have selective memory my friend.
This guy has been lecturing us since April about masks and chucklehead behavior.
I use terms like chucklehead because he insisted on it.
His ire is only pointed in one direction. When its pointed out his beloved anti liberty mandates are having similar results, he then says bull**** like weather changes. When I showed him that blue utopian were having worse outcomes than redneck states, he felt the need to start a thread on why blue states were superior bc he could no longer argue on merit for their covid responses
The guy is the king of being certain he right about everything while simultaneously getting everything wrong
I get youre on the same political team as he is, but wake up. The dude has gotten every major lecture wrong on this board and continues to refuse to self reflect
sturg33
I
There are plenty of examples of places where mask mandates show better outcomes. And just as.many where they show bad outcomes.
My conclusion is that they do not harm but they do not help. That was the scientific consensus for the last 40 years when it came to coronaviruses until April this year
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I mean the research consensus is pretty clear that masks work: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
And it’s always been well known virus behavior mirrors weather and temperature changes... but keep your fingers in your ears with you eyes closed
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
the sheeple places have done pretty well
the anti-maskers around here would get excited by every little uptick in places like new zealand, japan, hawaii and australia
they've done alright
sturg33
I
Right. And LA, NY, and Europe simply had winter
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
NY has done quite well since April. Far fewer deaths per capita since April than say Texas and Florida.
Even now with cases rising, NY has a positivity rate that is one of the lowest in the country. 5% over the past 7 days vs over 10% for the country. So whatever it is that New Yorkers have been doing has limited the rise in the number of cases even as the weather has gotten colder.