The Coronavirus, not the beer

The Nextstrain team has also used the mutation rate to determine that the virus probably first moved into humans from an animal host in late 2019.

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Define late and what the confidence level is.

This is not even close to a conclusive article on when the virus started and when it was in the US.

But I know CCP is doing the best they can to convince anti trumpers toncause divide.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I have to ask again if you are having a stroke.
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Remember when you weren't changing your doom and gloom predictions even after the data coming in was far better than models.

So I guess I'll have to ask the same.

But you could just ignore the question because its convenient.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Yes.
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This was on 4/2 when I asked if you were as alarmed as you were 2 days prior when people thought hundreds of thousand would die.

You are the one who has refused and continues to refuse the data that is coming in or the realitites of China lying about when the virus started and the amount of travel between the two countries. The NY Times running interference for China or NBC News running puff pieces goes right in line with what coastal elite lawyers are saying such as yourself. You are all better than us. I'm sorry we ever question you.

But keep doing your thing where you respond with a beautifully written passage because of your legal education. In the end though, its a bunch of **** because you've been wrong about this from the very beginning.
 
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I literally don't even remember making a "prediction." So this rant legit makes no sense.

My level of alarm has not subsided, if that's what you are asking. That's the question you linked to.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I literally don't even remember making a "prediction." So this rant legit makes no sense.

My level of alarm has not subsided, if that's what you are asking. That's the question you linked to.
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Your fear of how many deaths manifested itself into the alarm we are discussing.

What were you alarmed about then on March 31st about the virus when almost the world consensus was hundreds of thousands would die even with mitigation?
 
thethe said:
Your fear of how many deaths manifested itself into the alarm we are discussing.

What were you alarmed about then on March 31st about the virus when almost the world consensus was hundreds of thousands would die even with mitigation?
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I'm sorry, my "fear" is now a "prediction"? lol, This is some "my hunch is math" nonsense.

March 31 was the day we passed 1000 deaths over two weeks in NYC.
We just reported 1522 deaths in two days.

So yeah, pardon me for still being alarmed.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I'm sorry, my "fear" is now a "prediction"? lol, This is some "my hunch is math" nonsense.

March 31 was the day we passed 1000 deaths over two weeks in NYC.
We just reported 1522 deaths in two days.

So yeah, pardon me for still being alarmed.
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But you refused to acknowledge the data which was very good.

That is what is confusing to me and how I know you aren't looking at this objectively.
 
chop2chip said:
Isn’t the point of Sweden’s approach is they are pulling in their curve because everyone is going to get this disease? Seems silly to do this comparison until the end when we see the full curve.
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Good point. This Nordic Saga is not over.
 
weso1 said:
I was doing some math earlier today trying to figure out how many people in the US are or have actually been infected. I based my number on a couple of points. First, I noticed that the percent of 0-19 year olds in my state that have tested positive is incredibly low (1%). To me this shows that kids either have very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. In other words there are a ton of unknown positives out there. Not sure if this is true for every area, but I think it is true in most locations with mediocre testing capabilities. The second is looking at countries that have tested a large percentage of their population. I looked at their case fatality rates and extrapolated that to the US. Just based off this very basic analysis, I found that the actual cases in the US may be about 8 times higher than our current number actually suggests, or about 1% of the US population is or has been infected.
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Thanks for playing around with these numbers. I think 1% is the right ballpark. Working from a different direction 30,000 deaths (we currently are at 15,000 but will get to 30,000 next week) represents 0.01% of our population (a bit over 300 million). If the fatality rate is 1%, that would suggest 3 million are infected.
 
nsacpi said:
New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/...ope-genomes.html?referringSource=articleShare

#eurovirus
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Clearly this research was financially supported by the liberal media which was financially supported by the CCP. Didn't you hear?
 
Carp said:
Clearly this research was financially supported by the liberal media which was financially supported by the CCP. Didn't you hear?
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Remember when it was a sure thing that Iraq had WMD.

Its like we never learn.
 
[tw]1248118316591386630[/tw]

Who could have predicted that social distancing would work!!!!! This is the line that is being used even though it was baked into the models.

BUT! Americans were even better than we thought is such a great cop out.
 
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