In early March, President Donald Trump said that restrictions he placed on travel to and from China “saved a lot of lives,” a claim that grew to “probably tens of thousands” and “hundreds of thousands” by early April. But we found no support for such figures.
The few studies that have been done estimate the U.S.’ and other countries’ travel restrictions regarding China had modest impacts, slowing the initial spread outside of China but not containing the coronavirus pandemic. We didn’t find a study that looked at the U.S. restrictions alone, and we found only one non-peer-reviewed study, on Australia, that found an impact of such policies on deaths, though it has significant limitations.
Past studies, too, have found international travel restrictions could delay the path of the spread of diseases but do little to contain them.
Saad B. Omer, director of the Yale Institute for Global Health, told us he hasn’t seen any evidence to support the president’s claims. Previous studies of viruses with a reproduction number of 1.9 or higher, meaning the average number of other people one person infects, have shown the restrictions have to be very strict to have an effect, he said. Travel restrictions “can have an impact if you shut down 90% of all travel,” Omer said. But, “even then, it delays it a little bit but it doesn’t stop it.”
Omer co-authored a Feb. 3 article on why a travel ban wouldn’t stop the coronavirus.
Alex Nowrasteh, director of immigration studies at the libertarian Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, looked at several of the same studies we examined and concluded that “by themselves, travel restrictions do little but delay the onset of a crisis mentality and shift the curve to the right rather than flattening it.”
As we have found with prior claims from the president, Trump’s assertions have progressively grown:
Trump, March 5, Fox News town hall: But as soon as I heard that China had a problem, I said, “What’s going on with China? How many people are coming in?” … [Y]ou both know that I closed the borders very early. …. You know,
it saved a lot of lives.
Trump, March 17, coronavirus task force briefing: We closed it down to China, the source, very, very early. Very, very early. Far earlier than even the great professionals wanted to do. And I think, in the end, that’s going to be —
that will have saved a tremendous number of lives.
Trump, March 24, Fox News virtual town hall: I made a decision to close off to China. … Thousands and thousands of more people —
probably tens of thousands would be dead right now if I didn’t make that decision.
Trump, April 7, task force briefing: And I was called all sorts of names when I closed it down to China. …. If I didn’t do it — if I didn’t do that,
we would’ve had hundreds of thousands more people dying.
We asked the White House for support for the president’s claims, specifically whether there was support for his claims of “tens of thousands” or “hundreds of thousands” of lives saved. We haven’t received a response.
On Jan. 31, the Trump administration declared a public health emergency for the novel coronavirus and announced travel restrictions to and from China, effective Feb. 2. As of that date, there were nine confirmed cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, in the U.S., though there had been very little testing. At that point, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had not yet sent test kits to public health labs, so all testing was done through the CDC.
Currently, the U.S. has the most confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world. As of April 10, the U.S. had more than 486,000 cases and nearly 18,000 deaths, according to John Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
Under the travel restrictions, non-U.S. citizens, other than the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, were prohibited from entering the U.S. if they had traveled to China within the previous two weeks.
As we’ve written before, a study published in the journal Science on March 6 estimated that travel restrictions instituted in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began, and those put in place by several countries in early February regarding China would “only modestly” affect the spread of the pandemic.
The researchers — a team from the U.S., Italy and China, led by Northeastern University in Boston — used a model to estimate the impact. The model showed that a travel ban in Wuhan “was initially effective at reducing international case importations,” but “the number of cases observed outside Mainland China will resume its growth after 2-3 weeks from cases that originated elsewhere.” It found that restrictions by other countries would have “a modest effect” if they reduced travel to and from China by up to 90%, unless those restrictions were “paired with public health interventions and behavioral changes that achieve a considerable reduction in the disease transmissibility.”
In other words, travel restrictions could delay, but not stop, the spread of the disease, and social distancing and hand-washing behaviors would reduce the transmission of the disease.
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trumps-snowballing-china-travel-claim/