The Coronavirus, not the beer

thethe said:
That’s why I mostly agree with your stance of causal inference. My only rebuttal to that would be if masks were a tremendous factor in preventing spread that even with many other variables we should see start differences in results.

I think it has an impact when symptomatic hosts wear them and I’ve been consistent with that approach from day 1. I just don’t think it has any menaginful prevention factor for others.
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Although NOT dispositive because there are subtle differences in other variables, the difference in covid deaths between North and South Dakota after the mask mandate is one of the better pieces of evidence out there.

We would have to rerun this kind of experiment 50 times to be sure. We've had somewhat different kinds of experiments in Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and elsewhere. On balance I think the evidence is pretty strong that masks make a difference. I won't venture to say how big a difference.
 
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nsacpi said:
Although NOT dispositive because there are subtle differences in other variables, the difference in covid deaths between North and South Dakota after the mask mandate is one of the better pieces of evidence out there.

We would have to rerun this kind of experiment 50 times to be sure.
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And maybe that example strengthens masks during a period of early infection when the uninflected population is low as I’d expect it to be on a landlocked area in the middle of the country. I don’t know if that makes sense or not but what we can see is the total picture which includes the lives of all citizens within those countries.

I think South Dakota id better for its people as a whole despite having a higher death/infection rate per capita.
 
thethe said:
And maybe that example strengthens masks during a period of early infection when the uninflected population is low as I’d expect it to be on a landlocked area in the middle of the country. I don’t know if that makes sense or not but what we can see is the total picture which includes the lives of all citizens within those countries.

I think South Dakota id better for its people as a whole despite having a higher death/infection rate per capita.
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The governor of North Dakota instituted the mandate November 13. By then both states were getting hit hard.
 
nsacpi said:
The governor of North Dakota instituted the mandate November 13. By then both states were getting hit hard.
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Still doesn’t change that their uninflected population was Probabaly lower than most if not all other states in the country.
 
Deaths through end of November: North Dakota 954, South Dakota 946

Deaths since end of November: North Dakota 500, South Dakota 959
 
thethe said:
Still doesn’t change that their uninflected population was Probabaly lower than most if not all other states in the country.
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upper midwest was the part of the country getting hit the hardest at the time

even with the advantage of very low population density, South Dakota is in the top 10 in the country in overall excess death rate in 2020...there was a period in December and January when they were leading the country in hospitalization rates
 
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nsacpi said:
upper midwest was the part of the country getting hit the hardest at the time

even with the advantage of very low population density, South Dakota is in the top 10 in the country in overall excess death rate in the past year...there was a period in December and January when they were leading the country in hospitalization rates
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Why do you think this is a counter to what I’m saying?
 
thethe said:
That is one metric that you’ve presented accurately. What do you want it to mean?
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my point is we had something close to a controlled experiment in North and South Dakota...the results are pretty striking

we had a similar experiment involving 3 neighboring Arizona counties...similarly striking results in favor of the efficacy of mask mandates
 
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nsacpi said:
my point is we had something close to a controlled experiment in North and South Dakota...the results are pretty striking

we had a similar experiment involving 3 neighboring Arizona counties...similarly striking results in favor of the efficacy of mask mandates
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Extrapolation of performance variance to different population areas is not wise as you know. But we shouldn’t also discount other factors such as way of life between the two areas.

It sucks when people die but it’s part of life. The idea to do anything to stop death is not the approach we should be taking as a society when the trade offs are so damaging to everyone else.
 
nsacpi said:
my point is we had something close to a controlled experiment in North and South Dakota...the results are pretty striking

we had a similar experiment involving 3 neighboring Arizona counties...similarly striking results in favor of the efficacy of mask mandates
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I've posted countless similar experiences that tell the opposite story.

You always ignore those.

Reality is that masks are useless. There is no meaningful data that support their efficacy in controlled studies. Mask adoption is huge in this country and yet our curves are exactly the same. You are free to ignore this. You are free to triple mask.

Iiwii
 
sturg33 said:
I've posted countless similar experiences that tell the opposite story.

You always ignore those.

Reality is that masks are useless. There is no meaningful data that support their efficacy in controlled studies. Mask adoption is huge in this country and yet our curves are exactly the same. You are free to ignore this. You are free to triple mask.

Iiwii
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i post it one more time for your edification:

A little knowledge about causal inference can go a long way. Here is a tutorial:

https://delphi.cmu.edu/blog/2021/01/...-and-covid-19/

cliff notes summary: Estimating causal effects is tricky. We all know that “correlation isn’t causation.” For example, mask usage and cases could both increase over time. But that doesn’t mean that masks cause more cases to occur. Activation of “Buckle your seatbelt” signs on airplanes is correlated with turbulence. But activating the sign does not cause turbulence.

This btw is why "natural experiments" where all but one variables are kept under control are useful for inferring efficacy. Hence my fondness for the North Dakota/South Dakota mask mandate experiment, and the experiment involving 3 similar neighboring Arizona counties, one with a mask mandate and two without. And of course the Sweden/Scandinavian neighbors experiment.

the Lord's work is never done!
 
I know you are old and senile but I dont need you to post the same thing every 20 minutes.

I've specifically posted data on neighboring counties that contradict your anti science power grab. You ignore them.

Every

Single

Time

But you are sure about South Dakota. Thats the silver bullet for you. You pay no attention to your own incompetent state or the ****hole California's massive failure despite their massive compliance. You love the D and they have the D

iiwii
 
I always love the “(this is where you tell me...)” parts of the recently gone crazy one

You just know he thinks he has totally owned ya when he adds that on to a post
 
The more the sheep put up with this, the harder it will be to get out of it.

Biden was loud and clear to let us know he's willing to do it again

[Tw]1370433068213805064[/tw]
 
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