The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A primer on causal inference.
https://delphi.cmu.edu/blog/2021/01/19/causal-inference-for-social-mobility-and-covid-19/
Estimating causal effects is tricky. We all know that “correlation isn’t causation.” For example, mask usage and cases could both increase over time. But that doesn’t mean that masks cause more cases to occur. Activation of “Buckle your seatbelt” signs on airplanes is correlated with turbulence. But activating the sign does not cause turbulence.
https://delphi.cmu.edu/blog/2021/01/19/causal-inference-for-social-mobility-and-covid-19/
Estimating causal effects is tricky. We all know that “correlation isn’t causation.” For example, mask usage and cases could both increase over time. But that doesn’t mean that masks cause more cases to occur. Activation of “Buckle your seatbelt” signs on airplanes is correlated with turbulence. But activating the sign does not cause turbulence.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
acesfull86
Well-known member
Is there any data on mask wearing compliance before/after the lifting of mask mandates?
I just get the sense this pearl clutching over mandates being lifted is much ado about nothing ...less of an impact than our FDA/CDC pausing a vaccine over a six in 7 million chance of maybe getting a blood clot & not approving the AZ vaccine & not pursuing a first dose first distribution strategy going back a few months
I just get the sense this pearl clutching over mandates being lifted is much ado about nothing ...less of an impact than our FDA/CDC pausing a vaccine over a six in 7 million chance of maybe getting a blood clot & not approving the AZ vaccine & not pursuing a first dose first distribution strategy going back a few months
Last edited:
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I wish there were more data available on this. I know there is a project where Carnegie Mellon and Facebook are collaborating where they are doing daily surveys. But they don't seem to be sharing the data at this point.
My prior is that mandates have a subtle effect in terms of giving a business something to point to when a customer walks in without a mask. But there is a confounding variable, which is that both mandates and spontaneous mask wearing respond to how bad the situation is with respect to infections and deaths.
There are these "natural experiments" occurring out there, where two otherwise very similar counties or states will have a different mandate. That's probably the best hope for teasing out whether there is an independent effect from having a mandate.
Last edited:
sturg33
I
Not that I know of.
But there is plenty of data of mask compliance correlating with massive infection spikes
acesfull86
Well-known member
Yeah, my gut tells me at this point a mandate probably isn’t changing anyone’s mask wearing behavior one way or another, but really have no way to confirm
striker42
Well-known member
That's my suspicion. I live in an area that never had a mask mandate but most people have worn masks voluntarily. Those that don't I suspect wouldn't wear them even if mandated.
acesfull86
Well-known member
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dr-fauci-and-the-liberty-thing-11618526318?redirect=amp&fbclid=IwAR0la0g3m_cq6QshLRrEaE8xcfV-SPw_bLKAp462IwaOpq6lL8wri3RLMdg#click=https://t.co/FTeCva7FyT
Dr. Anthony Fauci is the government infectious disease expert who now refuses to provide his expert opinion on infectious disease.
Dr. Fauci’s refusal to consider the larger societal impact of his Covid advice is an ongoing national tragedy. As politicians were following his advice and locking down last spring, Dr. Fauci described the impact on Americans as “inconvenient.” Millions of lost jobs and more than $4 trillion in federal debt later—amid abundant evidence that lockdowns didn’t work—he’s still urging restrictions on normal life. Last year he also acknowledged that he did no cost-benefit analysis and really had no idea what the consequences were for students: “I don’t have a good explanation, or solution to the problem of what happens when you close schools, and it triggers a cascade of events that could have some harmful circumstances.”
But there is no excuse for today’s refusal to share his expert opinion on the appropriate Covid measurement to determine when normal life can resume. Dr. Fauci spent several minutes fencing with Rep. Jordan and saying liberty could be restored when the level of infection is “low enough.” But the government doctor repeatedly refused to put a number on it.
It’s impossible to believe that Dr. Fauci hasn’t thought about this question and formed an opinion. He may be able to dodge accountability for all the non-Covid destruction. But he owes the public a straight answer to the most important question at the center of his area of expertise.
Dr. Anthony Fauci is the government infectious disease expert who now refuses to provide his expert opinion on infectious disease.
Dr. Fauci’s refusal to consider the larger societal impact of his Covid advice is an ongoing national tragedy. As politicians were following his advice and locking down last spring, Dr. Fauci described the impact on Americans as “inconvenient.” Millions of lost jobs and more than $4 trillion in federal debt later—amid abundant evidence that lockdowns didn’t work—he’s still urging restrictions on normal life. Last year he also acknowledged that he did no cost-benefit analysis and really had no idea what the consequences were for students: “I don’t have a good explanation, or solution to the problem of what happens when you close schools, and it triggers a cascade of events that could have some harmful circumstances.”
But there is no excuse for today’s refusal to share his expert opinion on the appropriate Covid measurement to determine when normal life can resume. Dr. Fauci spent several minutes fencing with Rep. Jordan and saying liberty could be restored when the level of infection is “low enough.” But the government doctor repeatedly refused to put a number on it.
It’s impossible to believe that Dr. Fauci hasn’t thought about this question and formed an opinion. He may be able to dodge accountability for all the non-Covid destruction. But he owes the public a straight answer to the most important question at the center of his area of expertise.
acesfull86
Well-known member
https://reason.com/2021/04/16/michigan-moving-to-make-emergency-covid-19-mandates-permanent/
State bureaucrats are moving to impose permanent regulations that would mandate the following and more on all Michigan businesses: mask wearing whenever employees are within six feet of someone else, daily health screenings, extensive record keeping, and keeping a "COVID-19 safety coordinator" on-site. Retail stores, personal care services, and other businesses open to the public would have to become the mask police: They would be required to make all customers wear masks, vaccinated or not.
Many of these rules are based on mandates put in place last spring by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. As such, many are based on outdated scientific knowledge about how COVID-19 spreads. For instance, employers must "increase facility cleaning and disinfection" and "prohibit workers from using other workers' phones, desks, offices or other work tools and equipment." These rules were dreamed up when public health experts thought the virus could easily spread via surface contact. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently said there's a one in 10,000 chance of getting infected from touching a contaminated surface.
The rules make no accommodations for vaccinations. The word vaccine doesn't even appear in the rules. This means that even if a movie theater or bowling alley has fully vaccinated its entire staff and is in a community with no cases, masks are mandated at all times.
------------------
Crisis occurs. Government puts in "temporary" rules to deal with crisis. Crisis ends. Rules stay.
"Who could've seen this coming?", wondered no one
State bureaucrats are moving to impose permanent regulations that would mandate the following and more on all Michigan businesses: mask wearing whenever employees are within six feet of someone else, daily health screenings, extensive record keeping, and keeping a "COVID-19 safety coordinator" on-site. Retail stores, personal care services, and other businesses open to the public would have to become the mask police: They would be required to make all customers wear masks, vaccinated or not.
Many of these rules are based on mandates put in place last spring by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. As such, many are based on outdated scientific knowledge about how COVID-19 spreads. For instance, employers must "increase facility cleaning and disinfection" and "prohibit workers from using other workers' phones, desks, offices or other work tools and equipment." These rules were dreamed up when public health experts thought the virus could easily spread via surface contact. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently said there's a one in 10,000 chance of getting infected from touching a contaminated surface.
The rules make no accommodations for vaccinations. The word vaccine doesn't even appear in the rules. This means that even if a movie theater or bowling alley has fully vaccinated its entire staff and is in a community with no cases, masks are mandated at all times.
------------------
Crisis occurs. Government puts in "temporary" rules to deal with crisis. Crisis ends. Rules stay.
"Who could've seen this coming?", wondered no one
sturg33
I
sturg33
I
Hey look... a critical thinking liberal... in the wild. A rare sight these days
https://youtu.be/Qp3gy_CLXho
https://youtu.be/Qp3gy_CLXho
acesfull86
Well-known member
^ He nailed it