The Coronavirus, not the beer

acesfull86 said:
In other words, ignore costs and assume benefits
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i don't think i said that

i said imperfect measures observed imperfectly can save lives

of course we then need to analyze the costs and benefits...but the fact that those measures are imperfect and imperfectly observed doesn't necessarily mean they will fail a cost benefit analysis


here is an abstract of an analysis of the varicella vaccine

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11880952/

Although varicella vaccine is recommended for infants, many physicians and parents have withheld vaccination from infants because of concerns about the vaccine's long-term efficacy. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to examine the effects of decreasing vaccine efficacy on individuals and society. The model incorporated published data on age-specific incidence, morbidity, and mortality rates, as well as data on shifting disease burden from childhood to adulthood as vaccine compliance increases. The effects of 2 vaccination strategies---vaccinating infants at age 12 months and waiting to vaccinate until children are 10 years of age---were compared with the effects of no vaccination. If the efficacy of the vaccine were to decrease by 75%, then 50% compliance with vaccination at age 12 months would save 1800 life-years and 12,800 quality-adjusted life-years annually in the United States. The quality-adjusted life expectancy of individuals vaccinated at age 12 months would be 63 h longer than that of nonvaccinated individuals and would increase to 79 h as vaccination compliance increases and the burden of chickenpox shifts to adulthood. Varicella vaccination of infants at age 12 months appears to be beneficial, even if the efficacy of the vaccine declines substantially.

I bolded a few words to highlight some points. We act as if everything with respect to the covid vaccine is an all or nothing proposition. There are other vaccines where the issues of declining efficacy and partial compliance come into play. And we know how to take those things into account when doing cost benefit. Of course it is difficult to say how much weight to give to the "fweedom" of the folk libertarians out there. We should probably give it some weight. But reasonable people can disagree as to how much. And my hope certainly is that a cost benefit analysis might yield some insight into how much of a bonus we should pay to virtuous people willing to give up their fweedom.
 
acesfull86 said:
To that middle paragraph, it’s why mask mandates are essentially theater. Did we expect children to properly wear masks for hours on end in school? Did we expect people would choose top of the line masks when that wasn’t the communication from the government from the get go? Did we expect transmission would go down when we told people they only had to wear the mask until the bread and drinks got to the table?
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I agree, I don't think children wearing masks would ever really make a difference. I think teachers should have been given bomb protection though because they were getting fired at by the students. But that's neither here nor there. I think the idea behind having kids wear masks is a good one, but the execution was always going to be bad.
 
sturg33 said:
Do you still favor 18 year old kids being double vexed, forced to mask (outdoors too!), not allowed to eat lunch or socialize together, and frequently tested?

Because you did a few months ago. The old kitchen sink approach. Laughably stupid. probably the dumbest of all of your hilariously awful takes
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Still wondering
 
The point of being vaccinated and achieving a high vaccination rate in society is to resume normal life. For example, a college with close to 100% vaccination rates should not be too concerned about their students dining together and so forth. Some schools may out of an abundance of caution require some extra precautions for a couple weeks when students come back to campus. So they can test and see what the baseline is. But the idea of vaccination and frequent testing is so you can have a normal life. It is not hard to understand. But for some reason you prefer to describe this as "nsacpi wants to throw the kitchen sink at our children."

God bless you and your little heart and your tiny brain sturg.
 
sturg33 said:
Boy your tone sure has shifted... But still supportive of forced masking of vaccinated 18 year olds.

So pathetic
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Very early into this whole covid thing I started touting the writings of Paul Romer about how important high frequency testing was (even before vaccines were available) as a way to avoid making the awful choice between lives and livelihoods. I've changed my mind about some things but not that. You otoh were sharing Berenson's ramblings and even now these wonderfully idiotic graphs that purport to show this or that intervention not being effective. The amount of stupid bad faith posting you engage in is staggering.
 
sturg33 said:
Why did the CDC change their policies last week?
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i hate to break the news to you but i'm not on the rapid response team for the CDC or the current administration

you will find various posts of mine in this thread and others critical of both
 
sturg33 said:
Do you believe them to be pro-covid traitors now, or nah? Why or why not?
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ha...i guess you didn't like the anti-vaxx anti-masking propagandists being labelled as such...no i think i will reserve the phrase for that particular group...i'll repeat the analogy i've drawn before with a modern twist...it is like the citizens of Kiev being asked to turn the lights off at night to avoid making it easier for bombers and some particular groups deciding this would be too great an imposition on their fweedoms...it is what it is
 
That's quite an answer. Infections and deaths are higher than a year ago... Yet all the kitchen sinks and risk definitions were changed last week.

Weird, huh.

Glad you've finally come to my side on reality
 
sturg33 said:
That's quite an answer. Infections and deaths are higher than a year ago... Yet all the kitchen sinks and risk definitions were changed last week.

Weird, huh.

Glad you've finally come to my side on reality
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i guess that would be proof that the pro-covid traitors were right or sumthing
 
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