The Don

Hawk said:
You could easily make the argument that Adelson's bolstering of Gingrich/Santorum late into the primary season is what stifled the Republicans from coalescing around Romney and ultimately cost him what was a very close election.

Adelson's just a gnat, no doubt, but a pretty big one.
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Sure, I could buy that. I thought that Romney's primary-season forays into conservative orthodoxy didn't do him any favors. That's a structural problem, though, and not an Adelson problem.
 
Hawk said:
You could easily make the argument that Adelson's bolstering of Gingrich/Santorum late into the primary season is what stifled the Republicans from coalescing around Romney and ultimately cost him what was a very close election.

Adelson's just a gnat, no doubt, but a pretty big one.
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Barring a major collapse by the Dems, 2016 is going to be a repeat of 2008 and 2012.

A moderate candidate is going to get severely hurt n the primary season by his own party for being too middle of the road and not conservative enough. I fear for Jeb, illegal immigration is going to continually get brought up during the primaries and debates again. It may cost him and the Republicans the hispanic vote yet again next November.
 
Hawk said:
Adelson usually likes to give his money to the candidate who is most willing to give him a seat at the big table, and I just don't see Jeb being willing to do that. He's empowered by third-generation bundler loyalty, and has made it clear from the get-go -- to all parties involved -- that he's going to run his campaign his way (much to the chagrin of your usual establishment power brokers, as well as people, you know, who have watched the train-wreck unfold since day one).

I could see Christie kissing the ring, although Adelson is extremely conservative, so that would seem to rock to the boat toward a Cruz/Walker type.
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Or Rubio...
 
The Don said:
Barring a major collapse by the Dems, 2016 is going to be a repeat of 2008 and 2012.

A moderate candidate is going to get severely hurt n the primary season by his own party for being too middle of the road and not conservative enough. I fear for Jeb, illegal immigration is going to continually get brought up during the primaries and debates again. It may cost him and the Republicans the hispanic vote yet again next November.
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I personally think that the Republican electorate has become much more progressive in the past 8 years and is now more likely than ever to warily accept a moderate candidate, a la Bush, who is representative of moderate compromise on some key issues (like immigration) and espouses some traditional conservative values, too. That decision is made easier for many right-wingers especially when Clinton is presented as the alternative.

But Trump has surely thrown a wrench into things, and we shouldn't forget that the latest polling data has him neck and neck with Hilary - especially worth considering when there's talk of a further 30K of her deleted e-mails being recovered and published. That major collapse seems to have been happening since Benghazi.
 
Hawk said:
I personally think that the Republican electorate has become much more progressive in the past 8 years and is now more likely than ever to warily accept a moderate candidate, a la Bush, who is representative of moderate compromise on some key issues (like immigration) and espouses some traditional conservative values, too. That decision is made easier for many right-wingers especially when Clinton is presented as the alternative.

But Trump has surely thrown a wrench into things, and we shouldn't forget that the latest polling data has him neck and neck with Hilary - especially worth considering when there's talk of a further 30K of her deleted e-mails being recovered and published. That major collapse seems to have been happening since Benghazi.
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As much as you'd deny it. A Hillary vs. Jeb matchup on election day will turn into "Clinton 42 vs. Bush 43".
 
The Don said:
As much as you'd deny it. A Hillary vs. Jeb matchup on election day will turn into "Clinton 42 vs. Bush 43".
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If that were the case, then we go straight down party lines, and Bush takes Latinos and Clinton takes African Americans. 11/7/2000 all over again.
 
Hawk said:
I personally think that the Republican electorate has become much more progressive in the past 8 years and is now more likely than ever to warily accept a moderate candidate, a la Bush, who is representative of moderate compromise on some key issues (like immigration) and espouses some traditional conservative values, too. That decision is made easier for many right-wingers especially when Clinton is presented as the alternative.

But Trump has surely thrown a wrench into things, and we shouldn't forget that the latest polling data has him neck and neck with Hilary - especially worth considering when there's talk of a further 30K of her deleted e-mails being recovered and published. That major collapse seems to have been happening since Benghazi.
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Obviously, much depends on the Donald, but if he falters I'm thinking it is going to boil down to Cruz v. Bush on the Republican side of the equation. I think what the basic Republican voter wants right now is a tax cut (I don't know if how the Bush tax plan affects the middle class, but the cap on deductions could be troublesome) and they would accept a softening on immigration (and some other issues) to get that. Cruz plays in an entirely different arena and he's not as strong a general election candidate as Bush.

If Hillary tanks, Uncle Joe will be in the race immediately.
 
This was pretty funny. It sounded intelligent until she voiced support for Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.
[video=youtube;LAEOMBqgm1A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=43&v=LAEOMBqgm1A[/video]
 
Hawk said:
If that were the case, then we go straight down party lines, and Bush takes Latinos and Clinton takes African Americans. 11/7/2000 all over again.
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Too bad for you, the electorate is a little different than it was 15 years ago.
 
It may just be me, but I personally don't want another Clinton, unless it's Bill dressed as Hillary, OR another Bush, unless it's W's daughter (the hotter one) or that Bush actress woman.

I'd actually enjoy a Bernie vs. Trump election. Imagine how the media on both sides would literally melt down in that one.
 
50PoundHead said:
Obviously, much depends on the Donald, but if he falters I'm thinking it is going to boil down to Cruz v. Bush on the Republican side of the equation. I think what the basic Republican voter wants right now is a tax cut (I don't know if how the Bush tax plan affects the middle class, but the cap on deductions could be troublesome) and they would accept a softening on immigration (and some other issues) to get that. Cruz plays in an entirely different arena and he's not as strong a general election candidate as Bush.

If Hillary tanks, Uncle Joe will be in the race immediately.
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I'm not a fan of Cruz in terms of the meat and potatoes of his issues/platform, but I do enjoy his brand of political pseudo-swashbuckling and believe for that reason -- and that he is one of the few that can stake a legitimate claim over the far right -- he might be a formidable dark-horse. I want to believe, deep down inside, that this highly intelligent guy has largely (smartly) played to his audience so far in his Congressional career, and could ultimately tone down the crazy in order to curry more broad-based support if he had to.

But I have my doubts.
 
Hawk said:
I'm not a fan of Cruz in terms of the meat and potatoes of his issues/platform, but I do enjoy his brand of political pseudo-swashbuckling and believe for that reason -- and that he is one of the few that can stake a legitimate claim over the far right -- he might be a formidable dark-horse. I want to believe, deep down inside, that this highly intelligent guy has largely (smartly) played to his audience so far in his Congressional career, and could ultimately tone down the crazy in order to curry more broad-based support if he had to.

But I have my doubts.
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Funny you should say that. I have had a similar read on him, the same curiosity, and the same doubts. The more I see him, the more doubts I have, though.
 
I've been making the runs on right wing social media pages (Blaze, WesternJournalism, etc) and the big scoop is Roger Ailes of Fox News wants to meet with Trump to tone things down after Trump said he has no use for Fox News and will not do anything with them.

Conservatives on these pages are either calling Trump a crybaby, or saying Fox News is the corrupt one in this instance. It's funny to read comments such as "I've watched Fox for years, and the way they treat Trump I've found CNN to be more balanced". These are people that have loyally watched the garbage Fox News has been spitting out for years, and now they're seeing what the rest of the country has already known for a long time which is Fox News has a terribly biased agenda despite their "fair and balanced" rhetoric.
 
The GOP is as splintered and out of sorts as I've ever seen it. Or maybe it just seems that way because they start so early. But for the big news of the day to be that Ailes wants me meet with Trump again is very telling.
 
New CNN/ORC poll out today.

Trump at 36%
Cruz at 16%
Carson at 14%
Rubio at 12%

Jeb now at 3%

Trump is rewriting the book on American politics, and I kind of love it. Seeing the GOP self destruct and panic like this is quite a scene. I read the GOP has a playbook/contingency plan if Trump is the presumptive nominee in the general. Sending out guidelines to all the candidates.
 
The Don said:
New CNN/ORC poll out today.

Trump at 36%
Cruz at 16%
Carson at 14%
Rubio at 12%

Jeb now at 3%

Trump is rewriting the book on American politics, and I kind of love it. Seeing the GOP self destruct and panic like this is quite a scene. I read the GOP has a playbook/contingency plan if Trump is the presumptive nominee in the general. Sending out guidelines to all the candidates.
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It is interesting. I think it shows a pent-up anger that is manifesting across a lot of white America, although I think Trump will poll surprisingly well with African-Americans. I have spent my adult life first in politics but for the past 25 years mostly in policy and the thing that has struck me is that people are really getting sick of tortured policy analysis from both the left and the right. Folks are "think-tanked out."

I think the challenge for the Republican establishment now is trying to determine whether they should continue to try and derail Trump or jump on board. I heard a story on NPR the other day that highlighted the effort to blunt Trump's progress, but it all comes off as pretty weak soup. I think Cruz is the only guy who can leapfrog Trump and he has run as anti-establishment from the get-go. Kind of puts Karl Rove in an interesting position.

I wonder if the whole Trump effect will create the vast middle that has been lacking in American politics for the last 40+ years. It would seem odd that a consensus could be built out of Trump's bombast, but with the gathering congregations of extreme views on both the Left and Right, Trump has about eight lanes of highway to weave around in.
 
Hawk said:
I'm not a fan of Cruz in terms of the meat and potatoes of his issues/platform, but I do enjoy his brand of political pseudo-swashbuckling and believe for that reason -- and that he is one of the few that can stake a legitimate claim over the far right -- he might be a formidable dark-horse. I want to believe, deep down inside, that this highly intelligent guy has largely (smartly) played to his audience so far in his Congressional career, and could ultimately tone down the crazy in order to curry more broad-based support if he had to.

But I have my doubts.
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That's my assessment as well.
 
The Don said:
New CNN/ORC poll out today.

Trump at 36%
Cruz at 16%
Carson at 14%
Rubio at 12%

Jeb now at 3%

Trump is rewriting the book on American politics, and I kind of love it. Seeing the GOP self destruct and panic like this is quite a scene. I read the GOP has a playbook/contingency plan if Trump is the presumptive nominee in the general. Sending out guidelines to all the candidates.
Click to expand...

Do you mean the establishment GOP self-destruct and panic?
 
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