Upon further review and watching the debate again (in it's entirety... lol), I'd say at the very worst Trump tied into a stalemate if not narrowly won.
You don't look at this debate as two people evenly matched from the onset, you look at it as someone with a strong political advantage (Clinton) against someone who people recognize isn't going to talk like a seasoned politician. If Kobe and LeBron played 1 on 1 right now, Kobe is probably too old and slow to beat him, but it's a moral victory if he can score on him a few times if not keep the score close. That's the same thing in this instance. Hillary may have won the debate "overall", but she lost the debate in the sense she had multiple opportunities to close Donald out and didn't. We've said time and time again Donald is going to self destruct but he's continually self destructed to the GOP nomination and onto the debate stage against her. It's probably time to reassess his formula and really consider what he's doing is something we don't give him enough political credit for.
Trump had a handicap heading into this, all he needed to do was look barely formidable to be successful.
Clinton needed to blow Trump out of the water and I felt she stumbled on some answers.
Trump didn't get into a dead heat in polls without two factors: Clinton having no energy in her campaign, and Trump getting not-Clinton and can't be worse than status quo voters.
I think we underestimate just how much Trump's loudmouthy "confidence" whether his claims are substantive or lies, appeal to average joes.
Hillary just sounds like a politician when she talks. We know there's people out there voting for Trump because of his business experience, as well as him being a political "outsider". I think most of us here know Obama is a better speech giver than debater, as his charisma in debates vs. McCain and Romney did not work as well or seep through. Hillary not only just sounds overly scripted, but you can notice she feels absolutely uncomfortable answering any questions on her emails which furthers suspicions into people's heads. Again, I'm not here to argue whether her emails are important or not, I'm just saying whether it was Bernie giving her that alley oop, talking to it to the media, or in the debate against Trump she just gives off this really uncomfortable body language when it comes to answering any questions pertaining her emails. I think Trump's one liner of I'll release my tax returns when she releases her emails, was a very strong one to appeal to the average person who doesn't really know the real information on that issue.
I'm afraid this race is far from over, and I don't even think Trump has hit Hillary as hard as he could. He's gotten to the top being negative negative negative and throwing rationality out of the window from the top of Trump Tower. Don't even think he's thrown the kitchen sink at her yet. And Hillary has certainly mastered blowing leads. Lead Obama and lost. Lead Bernie and barely won (we'll never truly know to extent of how bad the DNC collusion really effected Bernie's campaign), and lead Trump by a lot and is now in a virtual tie.
There was an interesting thing Chris Matthews brought up during the primary season, and that is Hillary has a hard time "expanding" her base. If you look at all her political races throughout her career, she starts out at a certain number in early polls and doesn't go higher, only stays the same or drops lower. People will vote for her, but she has a hard time getting people to step over the line to vote for her. That's something Trump has had no issue, as I've met longtime Democrats who are jumping across the isle to go to Donald. I mean he flipped several thousand Democrats in Pennsylvania alone. I view my dad as someone like the average joe. Blue collar, union guy 30+ years, always voted blue. He watches the "news" everyday so he feels he's educated and informed enough about these things, but doesn't know more than he thinks. He's the exact type of guy that Trump appeals to. My dad loved Bill Clinton, and voted for Hillary in the Primary against Obama. Now he's going Donald. If you don't think there's several people out there similar to my dad that aren't going to vote for Trump, I feel you've truly underestimated whatever movement he's created.